Country music notes: I've been listening to KHYI in Dallas. Turn on your speakers and click on "Listen Now" on the upper left of the screen. They rock. They play about half classic country--Merle, Willie, Johnny, George and Tammy, and the like--and half active Texas musicians and especially their newest stuff. There's a song they play over and over called "The Road Goes On Forever and the Party Never Ends" which was apparently written and first recorded by Robert Earl Keen and covered by Joe Ely, which compares favorably to any Bruce Springsteen story-song. Joe Ely is great. He kicks ass. Friggin' A. Some rock radio station ought to just get slightly hip and start playing Keen, Ely, and Steve Earle--call themselves "Authentic American Rock" or something like that and then play Petty and the Dead and the Stones, who wanted to be American so badly they succeeded, and Creedence and Dylan and the Band and the Allmans and the Byrds and that stuff, plus the Blasters and Jason and the Scorchers and Cracker and whatever. And a little bit of Taj Mahal and Keb Mo blues stuff, not to mention your B.B. King and Willie Dixon and an occasional funky James Brown tune. That'd be a great station.
They've been playing this guy named Tom Russell, whom I've never heard of before, who's got a new record out with three good songs on it, one called "Modern Art", another called "Racehorse Haynes", and one more Western tune about a vigilante called Deacon and two horse thieves, the Sandoval brothers. Great stuff. I highly recommend it. According to the DJs, Russell got on David Letterman a few weeks ago, so he's not exactly an unknown.
The only thing that bugs me about KHYI is they play a lot of Waylon and Jerry Jeff songs about how great Bob Wills was, but they don't play any Bob Wills. Or Hank. They play a lot of covers of Hank, many of which are terrific, but we wanna hear the real thing occasionally.
Wednesday, May 28, 2003
Tuesday, May 27, 2003
Occasionally I get accused of not liking Spain or of insulting Catalonia or of dissing Barcelona. Nothing could be further from the truth, though I do reserve the right to be critical. I have insulted Cataloonies and socialists, but that's not insulting the Catalans or the Spanish. That's insulting individuals who have no brains or sense as far as politics goes.
One thing about Spain that I like is, of all things, the National Health (confusingly called "la Seguridad Social" around here). You'd figure a free-market dude like me would be blasting socialized medicine left and right, but it actually works pretty well around here; note the fact that Spain's life expectancy is longer than America's, though American per-capita income is almost double Spain's, and the Spaniards drink and smoke more than the Yanks. They also get more people killed in car wrecks, which balances out our higher homicide rate. Therefore, somebody's got to be doing something right (my guess: extensive preventive care), and my attitude is, if something works, even if you're ideologically opposed to it, don't try to fix it. I don't like residential zoning laws either, ideologically, but I have to admit they work.
Anyway, yesterday afternoon, I finally got my wisdom tooth pulled--left side, lower jaw. I'd gone in three times previously, thinking they were going to yank it that day, but they were doing something else. Once I went and waited for like an hour and saw the doctor for about 30 seconds; I opened my mouth and he said, "Yep, that tooth's impacted, it's got to go," which I already knew, thank you very much. So the National Health can be inefficient and slow and you have to wait in lines if what's wrong with you isn't life-threatening or an emergency, but when they do something, they do it very well. The doctors are absolutely top-quality. Several years ago, I cracked a fibula and they fixed it; I also had an operation to unblock my vas deferens in which they cut me open and I was hospitalized for four days; and the National Health provides me with psychiatric care. I am the last guy who's going to complain about it.
So they pulled the tooth; shot me up with lidocaine, waited five minutes for it to take, and then the doctor used this mean-looking implement to straighten the tooth out by prying and instantly yanked it with his forceps. Didn't hurt a bit; it was painful yesterday evening, but I took some pills they gave me and managed to get to sleep. Today I've got a mild, dull ache, but nothing more. The ol' lower jaw is just a little swollen. I think I have a pretty high threshold of pain; I didn't use to, but now mild pains that other people make a big deal about don't bother me much.
So I'm fine; it's the Socialists who are in pain. They did win, in the sense that they increased their representation almost everywhere except Catalonia, but they lost, in the sense that they really thought they were going to massacre Aznar and his PP over the war and all the rest. They didn't, and they are yelping and howling and whining like three-year-olds who didn't get what they wanted for Christmas. Check out this bit titled "Comeback" by Enrique Gil Calvo in yesterday's El País.
Judging by the provisional vote counts, there has not been an electoral turnaround in the May 25 local elections. It's true that the opposition might have won the most votes, but it has not managed to take the most disputed strongholds from the People's Party. We could talk about a tie, but given the expectations of only a month ago, we are really dealing with an Aznar victory. This produces a bitter feeling of historical injustice, since if these first estimates are confirmed (note: they were, in spades), their result could be interpreted as a validation on the part of the Spanish electorate of the most recent--and most negative--governance by Aznar.
Instead of unleashing a massive punishment vote, as an expression of protest against the three black holes of the last year for the Administration--the general strike, the Prestige disaster, and the aggression on Iraq--, on the contrary, this Sunday, there has been a tacit vote of forgiveness, if not support, for Aznar's extreme right-wing economic policies--which clean up the economy at the cost of increasing "exclusion" and social inequality--and security--with the increase of judicial repression as its worst but most demagogic black hole. It's the classical "shut up and eat" vote of the middle classes...
(Paragraph calling Zap and Gas dipshits)
But these explanations, though plausible and pertinent, grow pallid before the unquestionable pull of Aznar's comeback. His exclusive protagonism has stolen the show from both his partners and his rivals, because of the surliness and harshness of his dirty electoral games, without scruples in terrifying the least informed of the electorate through the media that serve the Administration. Aznar's political style has always been that of a madman, but in this last year he has surpassed all previous limits, since the final stretch of the campaign has been characterized by his lack of dignity, stealing the show from his political allies, threatening right and left, and insulting everybody.
WAAH! WAAH! WAAH! After the PP wins the general elections again next year we're going to hear even more crying from these Socialist jokers. Note that Mr. Gil i Pollas calles Aznar a madman and surly and the like and then accuses Aznar of insulting everybody. Also note that he says that the PP won because they frightened the stupid people through manipulation of the media. I call bullshit on that. I say that the Spanish middle class voted for their man and their party knowing full well what they were doing. I also say that Mr. Gil's column, which does not show a great deal of respect for the Spanish people, the Spanish voters, is a much graver insult to the Spaniards, who have just spoken out democratically and said what they wanted, than anything I have ever said.
¿Dónde están, no se ven, los amigos de los Bardem? ¡Zapatero, jódete, España es del PP!
One thing about Spain that I like is, of all things, the National Health (confusingly called "la Seguridad Social" around here). You'd figure a free-market dude like me would be blasting socialized medicine left and right, but it actually works pretty well around here; note the fact that Spain's life expectancy is longer than America's, though American per-capita income is almost double Spain's, and the Spaniards drink and smoke more than the Yanks. They also get more people killed in car wrecks, which balances out our higher homicide rate. Therefore, somebody's got to be doing something right (my guess: extensive preventive care), and my attitude is, if something works, even if you're ideologically opposed to it, don't try to fix it. I don't like residential zoning laws either, ideologically, but I have to admit they work.
Anyway, yesterday afternoon, I finally got my wisdom tooth pulled--left side, lower jaw. I'd gone in three times previously, thinking they were going to yank it that day, but they were doing something else. Once I went and waited for like an hour and saw the doctor for about 30 seconds; I opened my mouth and he said, "Yep, that tooth's impacted, it's got to go," which I already knew, thank you very much. So the National Health can be inefficient and slow and you have to wait in lines if what's wrong with you isn't life-threatening or an emergency, but when they do something, they do it very well. The doctors are absolutely top-quality. Several years ago, I cracked a fibula and they fixed it; I also had an operation to unblock my vas deferens in which they cut me open and I was hospitalized for four days; and the National Health provides me with psychiatric care. I am the last guy who's going to complain about it.
So they pulled the tooth; shot me up with lidocaine, waited five minutes for it to take, and then the doctor used this mean-looking implement to straighten the tooth out by prying and instantly yanked it with his forceps. Didn't hurt a bit; it was painful yesterday evening, but I took some pills they gave me and managed to get to sleep. Today I've got a mild, dull ache, but nothing more. The ol' lower jaw is just a little swollen. I think I have a pretty high threshold of pain; I didn't use to, but now mild pains that other people make a big deal about don't bother me much.
So I'm fine; it's the Socialists who are in pain. They did win, in the sense that they increased their representation almost everywhere except Catalonia, but they lost, in the sense that they really thought they were going to massacre Aznar and his PP over the war and all the rest. They didn't, and they are yelping and howling and whining like three-year-olds who didn't get what they wanted for Christmas. Check out this bit titled "Comeback" by Enrique Gil Calvo in yesterday's El País.
Judging by the provisional vote counts, there has not been an electoral turnaround in the May 25 local elections. It's true that the opposition might have won the most votes, but it has not managed to take the most disputed strongholds from the People's Party. We could talk about a tie, but given the expectations of only a month ago, we are really dealing with an Aznar victory. This produces a bitter feeling of historical injustice, since if these first estimates are confirmed (note: they were, in spades), their result could be interpreted as a validation on the part of the Spanish electorate of the most recent--and most negative--governance by Aznar.
Instead of unleashing a massive punishment vote, as an expression of protest against the three black holes of the last year for the Administration--the general strike, the Prestige disaster, and the aggression on Iraq--, on the contrary, this Sunday, there has been a tacit vote of forgiveness, if not support, for Aznar's extreme right-wing economic policies--which clean up the economy at the cost of increasing "exclusion" and social inequality--and security--with the increase of judicial repression as its worst but most demagogic black hole. It's the classical "shut up and eat" vote of the middle classes...
(Paragraph calling Zap and Gas dipshits)
But these explanations, though plausible and pertinent, grow pallid before the unquestionable pull of Aznar's comeback. His exclusive protagonism has stolen the show from both his partners and his rivals, because of the surliness and harshness of his dirty electoral games, without scruples in terrifying the least informed of the electorate through the media that serve the Administration. Aznar's political style has always been that of a madman, but in this last year he has surpassed all previous limits, since the final stretch of the campaign has been characterized by his lack of dignity, stealing the show from his political allies, threatening right and left, and insulting everybody.
WAAH! WAAH! WAAH! After the PP wins the general elections again next year we're going to hear even more crying from these Socialist jokers. Note that Mr. Gil i Pollas calles Aznar a madman and surly and the like and then accuses Aznar of insulting everybody. Also note that he says that the PP won because they frightened the stupid people through manipulation of the media. I call bullshit on that. I say that the Spanish middle class voted for their man and their party knowing full well what they were doing. I also say that Mr. Gil's column, which does not show a great deal of respect for the Spanish people, the Spanish voters, is a much graver insult to the Spaniards, who have just spoken out democratically and said what they wanted, than anything I have ever said.
¿Dónde están, no se ven, los amigos de los Bardem? ¡Zapatero, jódete, España es del PP!
Monday, May 26, 2003
Just to remind you, here are the predictions I made May 20.
I will make several predictions, more specific than the last lot, which I figure will be borne out. The three most powerful positions that are actually in play, the Valencia region, the Madrid region, and Madrid city, will be held by the PP. The PP will win at least three of the eight Andalusian capital cities as well as both of those in Extremadura. The Popular Front, with a Communist mayor, wins in Córdoba. The Socialists repeat in their strongholds of Extremadura's and Castile-La Mancha's regional governments--Socialist home base Andalusia, as well as Galicia, Catalonia, and the Basque country, are the four "historical communities" that are holding their regional elections on different dates. Three-way tossup in the Canaries, the PP, the Socialists, and the Canarian Coalition. The Socialists take Aragon. The PP takes the Balearics and Navarra. The PP takes San Sebastian and Vitoria with the support of the Socialists; the Socialists take Bilbao with PP support. The Socialists take most of the Galician cities in alliance with the Galician wacko nationalists, and the Socialists take Asturias and its cities, Oviedo and Gijón. The PP takes its home ground, Castile-Leon, Cantabria, and La Rioja. The Socialists repeat in Barcelona and Gerona, and Convergence repeats in Lérida and Tarragona.
Not bad. Missed the Madrid region. Got the Basque cities all wrong--Vitoria to the PP, OK, but the Socialists get San Sebastian and the Basque Nationalists took Bilbao. I called three PP mayoralties out of eight in Socialist homeland Andalusia; the PP actually won four. Other than that, some pretty good predictions there, if I do say so myself.
I will make several predictions, more specific than the last lot, which I figure will be borne out. The three most powerful positions that are actually in play, the Valencia region, the Madrid region, and Madrid city, will be held by the PP. The PP will win at least three of the eight Andalusian capital cities as well as both of those in Extremadura. The Popular Front, with a Communist mayor, wins in Córdoba. The Socialists repeat in their strongholds of Extremadura's and Castile-La Mancha's regional governments--Socialist home base Andalusia, as well as Galicia, Catalonia, and the Basque country, are the four "historical communities" that are holding their regional elections on different dates. Three-way tossup in the Canaries, the PP, the Socialists, and the Canarian Coalition. The Socialists take Aragon. The PP takes the Balearics and Navarra. The PP takes San Sebastian and Vitoria with the support of the Socialists; the Socialists take Bilbao with PP support. The Socialists take most of the Galician cities in alliance with the Galician wacko nationalists, and the Socialists take Asturias and its cities, Oviedo and Gijón. The PP takes its home ground, Castile-Leon, Cantabria, and La Rioja. The Socialists repeat in Barcelona and Gerona, and Convergence repeats in Lérida and Tarragona.
Not bad. Missed the Madrid region. Got the Basque cities all wrong--Vitoria to the PP, OK, but the Socialists get San Sebastian and the Basque Nationalists took Bilbao. I called three PP mayoralties out of eight in Socialist homeland Andalusia; the PP actually won four. Other than that, some pretty good predictions there, if I do say so myself.
Here's a Washington Times story on how absurd federal regulations are screwing up one man's life. The guy is a DC public school teacher and baseball coach, apparently a competent professional, who ran for office on the Green Party ticket though he didn't expect to win. That's an American citizen using his right to free speech and his right to stand for public office, right? That's being public-spirited and participating in the democratic political process, right? Wrong, according to the Feds. They want to fire him. Check it out. I vote we give the guy a medal for teaching in DC, for wanting to stay there, for God's sake, and for not being so freaked out by that fact, that he runs for office instead of spending the rest of the day after school lets out down at the bar.
Here's the Daily Telegraph's take on the results of the elections. The reporter has bought the Socialist spin; in reality the PP suffered small losses, not huge ones, and even registered some gains. Either that or she sent off her story before any of the real results were in; as usual, the surveys taken outside polling places gave the PP two or three percentage points of the vote fewer than the real, counted results. Note that she says that voters wore stickers and buttons to the polls and that's against election rules. Wrong. You can wear anything you like to go vote. What's prohibited is actual electioneering--putting up political signs in the voting places. The Election Board decided that no signs referring to the war, the oil spill, the general strike, etc., could be hung in voting places, which are mostly public schools. Since all of Spain's lefty teachers have been assigning their kids to make "No to the war" posters and the like and hanging them all over the walls of the schools, the Election Board decreed that those signs were against the rules and had to come down. In many places, they didn't.
Here are the most important races and their results, with all the votes in:
Madrid mayor: PP absolute majority
Valencia mayor: PP absolute majority
Sevilla mayor: Socialists most voted, either PSOE or PP must pact with regionalists
Barcelona mayor: Socialists most voted, must form Popular Front
Zaragoza mayor: Socialists most voted, must pact with regionalists
Málaga mayor: PP absolute majority
Las Palmas mayor: PP absolute majority
Murcia mayor: PP absolute majority
Valladolid mayor: PP absolute majority
Bilbao mayor: Basque Nationalists most voted, must pact with Communists
San Sebastián mayor: Socialists most voted, must pact with PP
Vitoria mayor: PP most voted, must pact with Socialists
Regional elections:
Aragon: Socialists most voted, must pact with regionalists
Asturias: Socialists most voted, must pact with Communists
Balearics: PP absolute majority
Canaries: Canarian Coalition most voted, must pact with somebody
Cantabria: PP most voted, must pact with regionalists
Castile-Leon: PP absolute majority
Castile-La Mancha: Socialist absolute majority
Valencia: PP absolute majority
Extremadura: Socialist absolute majority
Madrid: PP most voted, Popular Front pact can unseat PP
Murcia: PP absolute majority
Navarra: PP most voted, must pact with regionalists
La Rioja: PP absolute majority
PP spin: We won because we held our own, because we won the most total votes in the regional elections, because we took eight of the thirteen regions up for election, and because we won in the great majority of provincial capitals.
Socialist spin: We won because we got most total votes in the municipal elections and we took the Madrid region and Zaragoza away from you. Besides, you only got the most votes in the regionals because two big Socialist power centers, Andalusia and Catalonia, didn't vote.
PP spin: We held two of the three big prizes, Madrid mayor and Valencia region, and we took the Balearics region and the Burgos mayoralty away from you guys. Besides, our holding our own in this election is a big win because you guys had a lot of ammo to shoot at us and you missed with most of it. And one of our big power centers, the Galicia region, didn't vote either in the regionals.
Socialist spin: You sons-of-bitches, we thought we were gonna romp all over your asses.
PP spin: Ha, ha, ha, you didn't. Nanny-nanny-boo-boo, stick your head in doo-doo.
US Government spin: There was no anti-war backlash. The anti-war demos didn't mean a damned thing politically. Our friend Aznar is just as strong, probably stronger, than he was before March 25.
Anti-Catalanist spin: the Plataforma per Catalunya, the out-and-out Catalan racist and xenophobic party, won City Council seats in Vic, Manlleu, El Vendrell, and Cervera. As far as I know the Plataforma is the only political party in Spain that could reasonably be called "fascist" that holds official representation, and where did they win it? In four medium-sized and very Catalan cities.
Madrid mayor: PP absolute majority
Valencia mayor: PP absolute majority
Sevilla mayor: Socialists most voted, either PSOE or PP must pact with regionalists
Barcelona mayor: Socialists most voted, must form Popular Front
Zaragoza mayor: Socialists most voted, must pact with regionalists
Málaga mayor: PP absolute majority
Las Palmas mayor: PP absolute majority
Murcia mayor: PP absolute majority
Valladolid mayor: PP absolute majority
Bilbao mayor: Basque Nationalists most voted, must pact with Communists
San Sebastián mayor: Socialists most voted, must pact with PP
Vitoria mayor: PP most voted, must pact with Socialists
Regional elections:
Aragon: Socialists most voted, must pact with regionalists
Asturias: Socialists most voted, must pact with Communists
Balearics: PP absolute majority
Canaries: Canarian Coalition most voted, must pact with somebody
Cantabria: PP most voted, must pact with regionalists
Castile-Leon: PP absolute majority
Castile-La Mancha: Socialist absolute majority
Valencia: PP absolute majority
Extremadura: Socialist absolute majority
Madrid: PP most voted, Popular Front pact can unseat PP
Murcia: PP absolute majority
Navarra: PP most voted, must pact with regionalists
La Rioja: PP absolute majority
PP spin: We won because we held our own, because we won the most total votes in the regional elections, because we took eight of the thirteen regions up for election, and because we won in the great majority of provincial capitals.
Socialist spin: We won because we got most total votes in the municipal elections and we took the Madrid region and Zaragoza away from you. Besides, you only got the most votes in the regionals because two big Socialist power centers, Andalusia and Catalonia, didn't vote.
PP spin: We held two of the three big prizes, Madrid mayor and Valencia region, and we took the Balearics region and the Burgos mayoralty away from you guys. Besides, our holding our own in this election is a big win because you guys had a lot of ammo to shoot at us and you missed with most of it. And one of our big power centers, the Galicia region, didn't vote either in the regionals.
Socialist spin: You sons-of-bitches, we thought we were gonna romp all over your asses.
PP spin: Ha, ha, ha, you didn't. Nanny-nanny-boo-boo, stick your head in doo-doo.
US Government spin: There was no anti-war backlash. The anti-war demos didn't mean a damned thing politically. Our friend Aznar is just as strong, probably stronger, than he was before March 25.
Anti-Catalanist spin: the Plataforma per Catalunya, the out-and-out Catalan racist and xenophobic party, won City Council seats in Vic, Manlleu, El Vendrell, and Cervera. As far as I know the Plataforma is the only political party in Spain that could reasonably be called "fascist" that holds official representation, and where did they win it? In four medium-sized and very Catalan cities.
We'll fill you in on the election results from yesterday and run down our predictions and see how we did pretty soon here.
The important news, though, is that a Ukranian plane carrying mostly Spanish soldiers crashed in Turkey on its way from Afghanistan to Spain. 74 people were killed, including more than sixty Spanish soldiers. These guys had been keeping the peace in Afghanistan and were on their way home. Damned shame. If any leftist groups attempt to use this tragedy politically I will--well, all I can really do is point it out on this here blog and then insult them. But that's what I'll do.
And can we please start decommissioning those damn Russian-made planes? I certainly wouldn't fly in one.
The important news, though, is that a Ukranian plane carrying mostly Spanish soldiers crashed in Turkey on its way from Afghanistan to Spain. 74 people were killed, including more than sixty Spanish soldiers. These guys had been keeping the peace in Afghanistan and were on their way home. Damned shame. If any leftist groups attempt to use this tragedy politically I will--well, all I can really do is point it out on this here blog and then insult them. But that's what I'll do.
And can we please start decommissioning those damn Russian-made planes? I certainly wouldn't fly in one.
Sunday, May 25, 2003
More results from around Spain, these based on actual partial counts of the vote:
Vigo goes to the PP if there is no deal between the Socialists and the Galician nationalists. La Coruña goes to the Socialists. The PP gets an absolute majority in Valladolid, Palma, Badajoz, Burgos, and Málaga. The PP loses Toledo to a Socialist-Communist coalition. The Andalusian regionalists hold power in Sevilla; whichever side can convince them gets the mayoralty.
The radical right-wing Plataforma per Catalunya won a Council seat in the city of El Vendrell.
Vigo goes to the PP if there is no deal between the Socialists and the Galician nationalists. La Coruña goes to the Socialists. The PP gets an absolute majority in Valladolid, Palma, Badajoz, Burgos, and Málaga. The PP loses Toledo to a Socialist-Communist coalition. The Andalusian regionalists hold power in Sevilla; whichever side can convince them gets the mayoralty.
The radical right-wing Plataforma per Catalunya won a Council seat in the city of El Vendrell.
The results have been coming in from around Catalonia and there haven't been any major changes in who's going to be governing our cities. One thing that is almost uniform is that the Socialists and Convergence have generally lost votes, the Socialists up to 25% of their seats in some cities, including Barcelona. The PP has gained some, a couple of percent, and the Communists and the Republican Left have increased their representation by a good bit, more than doubling it in Barcelona. What it looks to me like has happened is this: the protest vote went from the Socialists to the two smaller leftist parties. The PP voters stayed loyal, and some of the right wing of Convergence moved over to the PP.
Here's the repulsive news of the day from the emblematic and super-Catalan city of Vic: the Plataforma per Catalunya, which is a far-right anti-immigration party, run by Josep Anglada, who is known in those parts as the guy who organizes the pro-Franco demonstrations. took 8.77% of the vote and won two seats on the Vic City Council. The guy from TV3 dared to go so far as to say that said party is considered by some to be xenophobic.
Here's the repulsive news of the day from the emblematic and super-Catalan city of Vic: the Plataforma per Catalunya, which is a far-right anti-immigration party, run by Josep Anglada, who is known in those parts as the guy who organizes the pro-Franco demonstrations. took 8.77% of the vote and won two seats on the Vic City Council. The guy from TV3 dared to go so far as to say that said party is considered by some to be xenophobic.
Catalunya TV has just announced some real results, that is, results based on partial vote counts.
Barcelona City Council:
Socialists 35.77%, 16 seats
Convergence 19.49%, 8 seats
PP 15.52%, 7 seats
Republican Left 12.58%, 5 seats
Communists 12.57%, 5 seats
The Socialists got hit hard in Catalonia, with the protest vote going to the smaller leftist parties, the Republican Left and the Commies. The PP actually increased the percentage of its vote. Convergencia lost votes. Looks like in Catalonia, though, the protest vote hurt the Socialists and Convergencia. I suppose that the 15% of Barcelonese who went for the PP are supporters of Aznar and his politics. Nonetheless, Mayor Joan Clos continues at the head of a Popular Front government on the City Council.
Tarragona City Council: A Convergence-PP deal gives the mayoralty to Convergence.
Lérida and Gerona City Councils: Socialist mayors backed by Popular Front coalitions.
Barcelona City Council:
Socialists 35.77%, 16 seats
Convergence 19.49%, 8 seats
PP 15.52%, 7 seats
Republican Left 12.58%, 5 seats
Communists 12.57%, 5 seats
The Socialists got hit hard in Catalonia, with the protest vote going to the smaller leftist parties, the Republican Left and the Commies. The PP actually increased the percentage of its vote. Convergencia lost votes. Looks like in Catalonia, though, the protest vote hurt the Socialists and Convergencia. I suppose that the 15% of Barcelonese who went for the PP are supporters of Aznar and his politics. Nonetheless, Mayor Joan Clos continues at the head of a Popular Front government on the City Council.
Tarragona City Council: A Convergence-PP deal gives the mayoralty to Convergence.
Lérida and Gerona City Councils: Socialist mayors backed by Popular Front coalitions.
The two major parties are beginning to spin. The PP is saying that they're the winners because they were the most voted party in the majority of regions and in the majority of the provincial capitals. The Socialists are saying they're the winners because they got more total votes than the PP did. My spin is, again, Aznar has weathered the storm and the PP didn't lose too much; there was not a general "punishment vote" on account of the war or anything else.
I've gone over to Tele 5 to see what they're saying. Their survey results vary slightly from TVE's. There will be Socialist-regionalist-Communist pacts in Vigo and Sevilla, putting those mayoralties in Socialist hands. Valladolid may go the same way, they're saying now. The Valencia mayoralty goes to the PP. Bilbao is still up in the air.
The general media take--I've been through Catalunya TV as well--is more or less what I was saying, that the Socialists get a marginal win but they didn't hit the PP a killing blow. The Spanish people did not react, as a whole, against the government and in favor of the left, as some were hoping.
The general media take--I've been through Catalunya TV as well--is more or less what I was saying, that the Socialists get a marginal win but they didn't hit the PP a killing blow. The Spanish people did not react, as a whole, against the government and in favor of the left, as some were hoping.
Televisión Española is calling the various election races on the basis of surveys taken of people leaving the polls. The polls close in the Canary Islands at 9 PM mainland time and the official preliminary results are scheduled for 10:30. Here's the rundown so far:
Autonomous Regions:
Madrid: PP most voted but could be unseated by Socialist-Communist coalition
Valencia: PP holds absolute majority
Balearics: PP most voted but could lose out to leftist-regionalist coalition
Navarra: PP most voted, likely to get Socialist support vs. Basque nationalists
Murcia: PP holds absolute majority
Castile-La Mancha: Socialists hold absolute majority
Castile-León: PP holds absolute majority
Cantabria: PP most voted, could be unseated by SocioCommunist coalition
Asturias: Socialists gain absolute majority
La Rioja: PP holds absolute majority
Aragon: Socialists most voted, must make coalition
Extremadura: Socialists hold absolute majority
Canaries: Canarian Coalition most voted, will have to form coalition.
Catalonia, the Basque Country, Galicia, and Andalusia did not hold regional elections.
These results for Aznar's PP aren't what I'd hoped for but aren't too bad. They didn't get their clocks cleaned, though in most places they have declined by a couple of percentage points. It looks like the big loss, though, is the Madrid regional government, which will almost certainly fall into the hands of a Popular Front government. The big hold is on the Valencia region, once strongly Socialist, no longer so.
Major Cities:
Madrid: PP holds absolute majority
Bilbao: Completely up in the air
San Sebastián: Socialists most voted, can form coalition with PP
Vitoria: PP most voted, can form coalition with Socialists
Barcelona: Socialists most voted, current Popular Front council to continue
Valencia: PP holds absolute majority
Sevilla: PP most voted but SocioCommunist coalition would win
Malaga: PP holds absolute majority
La Coruña: Socialists hold absolute majority
Vigo: PP most voted but leftist-nationalist coalition could unseat them
Valladolid: PP holds absolute majority
Burgos: PP most voted but could be unseated by SocioCommunist coalition
Toledo: Socialists most voted, Popular Front coalition unseats PP. Big PP loss
Zaragoza: Socialists most voted, leftist-regionalist coalition wins
Pamplona: PP most voted, wins with Socialist support
Palma: PP most voted, must form coalition with regionalists
Badajoz: PP absolute majority
If these figures hold up, and they are very approximate, I think we can call this election a marginal Socialist win. They've increased their percentage of the vote almost everywhere, and the PP's percentage of the vote has declined, at least slightly, almost everywhere. It also looks like they've taken the Madrid regional government with help from their Communist pals on the United Left. That's an impartant win, and their strong showings in San Sebastián and Zaragoza are also good news for them. But the PP did not get creamed. There was no overwhelming rejection of the Aznar government. These results do not leave them in too awful a position going into the elections for the four regions that didn't vote today and for the general elections next spring.
Autonomous Regions:
Madrid: PP most voted but could be unseated by Socialist-Communist coalition
Valencia: PP holds absolute majority
Balearics: PP most voted but could lose out to leftist-regionalist coalition
Navarra: PP most voted, likely to get Socialist support vs. Basque nationalists
Murcia: PP holds absolute majority
Castile-La Mancha: Socialists hold absolute majority
Castile-León: PP holds absolute majority
Cantabria: PP most voted, could be unseated by SocioCommunist coalition
Asturias: Socialists gain absolute majority
La Rioja: PP holds absolute majority
Aragon: Socialists most voted, must make coalition
Extremadura: Socialists hold absolute majority
Canaries: Canarian Coalition most voted, will have to form coalition.
Catalonia, the Basque Country, Galicia, and Andalusia did not hold regional elections.
These results for Aznar's PP aren't what I'd hoped for but aren't too bad. They didn't get their clocks cleaned, though in most places they have declined by a couple of percentage points. It looks like the big loss, though, is the Madrid regional government, which will almost certainly fall into the hands of a Popular Front government. The big hold is on the Valencia region, once strongly Socialist, no longer so.
Major Cities:
Madrid: PP holds absolute majority
Bilbao: Completely up in the air
San Sebastián: Socialists most voted, can form coalition with PP
Vitoria: PP most voted, can form coalition with Socialists
Barcelona: Socialists most voted, current Popular Front council to continue
Valencia: PP holds absolute majority
Sevilla: PP most voted but SocioCommunist coalition would win
Malaga: PP holds absolute majority
La Coruña: Socialists hold absolute majority
Vigo: PP most voted but leftist-nationalist coalition could unseat them
Valladolid: PP holds absolute majority
Burgos: PP most voted but could be unseated by SocioCommunist coalition
Toledo: Socialists most voted, Popular Front coalition unseats PP. Big PP loss
Zaragoza: Socialists most voted, leftist-regionalist coalition wins
Pamplona: PP most voted, wins with Socialist support
Palma: PP most voted, must form coalition with regionalists
Badajoz: PP absolute majority
If these figures hold up, and they are very approximate, I think we can call this election a marginal Socialist win. They've increased their percentage of the vote almost everywhere, and the PP's percentage of the vote has declined, at least slightly, almost everywhere. It also looks like they've taken the Madrid regional government with help from their Communist pals on the United Left. That's an impartant win, and their strong showings in San Sebastián and Zaragoza are also good news for them. But the PP did not get creamed. There was no overwhelming rejection of the Aznar government. These results do not leave them in too awful a position going into the elections for the four regions that didn't vote today and for the general elections next spring.
For new readers, these municipal and regional elections are important even if you do not live in Spain. The Socialists (PSOE) and Communists (IU) have successfully turned the election into a referendum on the conservative, pro-Anglo-American central government, which has done several unpopular things recently, more or less in order of importance: Spain's stance in the War on Terrorism, the government water plan, the controversy over the Galician oil spill, the decree on education reform, and the problems with the construction of the Madrid-Barcelona TGV line. If the PP, the conservative governing People's Party, wins most of the key races, then we'll be able to say that it hasn't been too badly hurt by all these controversies, and it's still the top dog party. If they lose most of them, then we'll know they're up to their necks in dog doo when Catalan regional elections come around this fall and general elections come around in spring 2004.
Municipal elections, in particular, are considered by Spanish political scientists as trend predictors; if these municipals go to the Socialists, it'll be a strong sign that they're likely to take next year's generals. We saw this trend before the PP takeover in 1996 and before the Socialist takeover in 1982, and we saw it way back in 1931 when very poor results obtained by the monarchist parties caused King Alfonso XIII to leave the country, giving place to the Second Republic.
So if you approve of Spain's international policies, you'd better join me in hoping for a good showing by the PP so that the peacenik Socialists don't take over again.
Municipal elections, in particular, are considered by Spanish political scientists as trend predictors; if these municipals go to the Socialists, it'll be a strong sign that they're likely to take next year's generals. We saw this trend before the PP takeover in 1996 and before the Socialist takeover in 1982, and we saw it way back in 1931 when very poor results obtained by the monarchist parties caused King Alfonso XIII to leave the country, giving place to the Second Republic.
So if you approve of Spain's international policies, you'd better join me in hoping for a good showing by the PP so that the peacenik Socialists don't take over again.
Oh, yeah, they had another pot-banging last night. I was downtown, where the Vangua says that participation was the most noticeable, and I didn't hear too much racket. Today, since anti-war and anti-government signs are supposed to be removed from polling sites (no political messages allowed in polling places), all the lefties have plastered themselves with stickers and buttons proclaiming their leftiness and peacefulness. Of course, wearing whatever you want is your right and you can wear that stuff into the voting room, but some of these folks looked pretty damn silly with stickers all over themselves.
Here's Libertad Digital's rundown on today's key posts up for grabs. I'm not going to bother translating it since I figure if you're one of the three people following our election coverage, you probably already know Spanish, and if you don't, you can figure out the story because of all the numbers.
The only place where abnormalities have been reported is the Basque Country, where things got a bit hairy over the last week or so. The cops count thirty violent actions in the Basque region in the last ten days, more than half of which were assault and battery on sympathizers of other parties handing out their brochures and exercising their right to free expression. Meanwhile, anti-ETA candidates have received an avalanche of death threats; yesterday the pro-ETA "radical youth" (teenage rioters, looters, and vandals) Molotov-cocktailed the house of a policeman in San Sebastián for the thirtieth act of low-grade incompetent crap terrorism the Basques have seen. In the rest of Spain, some pseudo-anarchist shitheads let off a letter-bomb at the Valencia post office and seven people were injured.
Here in Catalonia, which is divided into some fifty "comarcas" (counties), the Socialists are going to take the five counties of the Barcelona metro area: Barcelonés, Baix Llobregat, Vallés Occidental, Vallés Oriental, and Maresme. The Catalan nationalists, Convergence and Union, should win all the other counties, with maybe a fluke Socialist or even Esquerra win or two somewhere. Now, wait, CiU control most of the counties, right? So they should be the strongest party, right? Wrong. More than four million of Catalonia's six million people live in the five counties of the BCN metro area. The Socialists are clearly the biggest party here in Catalonia.
The percentage of voters in municipal elections in Catalonia has been between 55% and 65%; they're saying it looks like voter participation this time is going to be pretty high, at least 60%, which is good news for the Socialists; most people whose interest in politics is marginal tend to go for the Socialists and their paternalistic program and guff about the rights of labor. The higher the turnout, the better they tend to do. This isn't good news for the PP, as they tend to do better with a smaller turnout; PP voters are very loyal, but there just aren't that many in Catalonia, 15% of the vote maximum.
The only place where abnormalities have been reported is the Basque Country, where things got a bit hairy over the last week or so. The cops count thirty violent actions in the Basque region in the last ten days, more than half of which were assault and battery on sympathizers of other parties handing out their brochures and exercising their right to free expression. Meanwhile, anti-ETA candidates have received an avalanche of death threats; yesterday the pro-ETA "radical youth" (teenage rioters, looters, and vandals) Molotov-cocktailed the house of a policeman in San Sebastián for the thirtieth act of low-grade incompetent crap terrorism the Basques have seen. In the rest of Spain, some pseudo-anarchist shitheads let off a letter-bomb at the Valencia post office and seven people were injured.
Here in Catalonia, which is divided into some fifty "comarcas" (counties), the Socialists are going to take the five counties of the Barcelona metro area: Barcelonés, Baix Llobregat, Vallés Occidental, Vallés Oriental, and Maresme. The Catalan nationalists, Convergence and Union, should win all the other counties, with maybe a fluke Socialist or even Esquerra win or two somewhere. Now, wait, CiU control most of the counties, right? So they should be the strongest party, right? Wrong. More than four million of Catalonia's six million people live in the five counties of the BCN metro area. The Socialists are clearly the biggest party here in Catalonia.
The percentage of voters in municipal elections in Catalonia has been between 55% and 65%; they're saying it looks like voter participation this time is going to be pretty high, at least 60%, which is good news for the Socialists; most people whose interest in politics is marginal tend to go for the Socialists and their paternalistic program and guff about the rights of labor. The higher the turnout, the better they tend to do. This isn't good news for the PP, as they tend to do better with a smaller turnout; PP voters are very loyal, but there just aren't that many in Catalonia, 15% of the vote maximum.
Today is a Japanese girl's favorite day: Erection Day! I accompanied Remei to go vote early this afternoon and we checked out two polling places, and everything seemed to be going completely normally. There's been a bit of a stink because most of the polling places are schools, and they've all got their "No to the war" and "No to the water plan" bulletin boards and murals up. The Elections Commission has decided that such expressions of opinion are not permitted in voting places because they have political overtones, and nobody is supposed to be influenced in his vote by electioneering at the voting booths. At the first one we checked, on Calle Sant Salvador, all was in order. If there had been any "illegal" signs up, they'd been taken down. At the second one we checked on Calle Providencia, there were two "no to the war" bulletin boards up in the lobby, along with one anti-water-plan art project. Results won't start coming in until the polls close this evening.
Saturday, May 24, 2003
Here's an article from the Daily Telegraph on tomorrow's municipal and regional elections here in Spain. The Telegraph is a little less optimistic about the chances of José María Aznar's People's Party than we are here, but they agree that Aznar and his conservatives are not likely to suffer crippling losses.
Today is the "day of reflection" before tomorrow's elections; campaigning is prohibited. Tomorrow evening we'll be watching TV and filling you in on the results as they come in. The big races we're watching are for the presidencies of the Madrid and Valencia regions, the mayoralty of Madrid, and the mayoralties of Bilbao, San Sebastián, and Vitoria in the Basque country. Again, our predictions are that the PP holds Madrid and Valencia, and that the PP and the Socialists team up in a "democratic alliance" to split the Basque capitals, the PP getting San Sebastián and Vitoria and the Socialists getting Bilbao. There is no question that the Socialist-Popular Front coalition will hold Barcelona's mayoralty. Here in Catalonia, the Socialists will also take Gerona and most of the industrial suburbs around Barcelona, several of which are substantial municipalities (L'Hospitalet, Sabadell, Badalona, Santa Coloma, all of which have at least 150,000 people). The Catalan nationalists, Convergence and Union, will hold the mayoralties of Lérida and Tarragona. The PP is gunning hard in Sevilla but that's a Socialist stronghold and they're not likely to take it.
As long as we're linking to the most prestigious British paper, let's link to the least prestigious. The Sun has a piece on how further integration into the EU will destroy Britain's sovereignty and autonomy. It's written in mostly one-syllable words even you and me can understand. Check it out. (Via FrontPage.)
There's a Fred Barnes article in the Weekly Standard on how we won the war, including some stuff I didn't know. It's rather a puff piece on Tommy Franks, but it's well worth a read. Here's one from last week's Economist on how Saudi Arabia has lost influence in Washington.
Today is the "day of reflection" before tomorrow's elections; campaigning is prohibited. Tomorrow evening we'll be watching TV and filling you in on the results as they come in. The big races we're watching are for the presidencies of the Madrid and Valencia regions, the mayoralty of Madrid, and the mayoralties of Bilbao, San Sebastián, and Vitoria in the Basque country. Again, our predictions are that the PP holds Madrid and Valencia, and that the PP and the Socialists team up in a "democratic alliance" to split the Basque capitals, the PP getting San Sebastián and Vitoria and the Socialists getting Bilbao. There is no question that the Socialist-Popular Front coalition will hold Barcelona's mayoralty. Here in Catalonia, the Socialists will also take Gerona and most of the industrial suburbs around Barcelona, several of which are substantial municipalities (L'Hospitalet, Sabadell, Badalona, Santa Coloma, all of which have at least 150,000 people). The Catalan nationalists, Convergence and Union, will hold the mayoralties of Lérida and Tarragona. The PP is gunning hard in Sevilla but that's a Socialist stronghold and they're not likely to take it.
As long as we're linking to the most prestigious British paper, let's link to the least prestigious. The Sun has a piece on how further integration into the EU will destroy Britain's sovereignty and autonomy. It's written in mostly one-syllable words even you and me can understand. Check it out. (Via FrontPage.)
There's a Fred Barnes article in the Weekly Standard on how we won the war, including some stuff I didn't know. It's rather a puff piece on Tommy Franks, but it's well worth a read. Here's one from last week's Economist on how Saudi Arabia has lost influence in Washington.
Friday, May 23, 2003
Check out this bit of sexually explicit anti-Axis propaganda from the good old days. Don't worry, it's OK, it's for historical research purposes. Also check out this pre-WWII Japanese sex toy catalog. I don't recommend looking at the rest of the website this stuff is from unless you have an extremely strong stomach.
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