The polls in peninsular Spain close at 8 PM (in the Canary Islands at 9 our time), and TV3's exit poll for all of Spain says it looks like a big win for Zapatero. They have the PSOE with 45.0% to 38.6% for the PP. The PSOE would win 172-176 seats, and the PP 148-152. The smaller parties are getting whacked. The Communists drop to only 2-3 seats, and Esquerra wins 4. CiU holds out with 9-11 seats and the PNV gets 6-7. Other parties winning seats: The BNG, CC, Rosa Diez's UPD, and Nafarroa Bai.

We'll see if these results change over the evening; they're likely to. Right now, though, TV3's figures point at a Zapatero able to govern from the minority without needing to form a coalition.

They've announced that the first official results will be released after 9:30. Also, turnout in the Basque Country is very low, seven points below 2004.

TV3 is leading with the report that at 6 PM voter participation in Spain was 61%, two percentage points below the last election in 2004, and that in Catalonia turnout is five points below 2004. This would seem to favor the PP, since Catalonia is a Socialist stronghold.

Looks like the Socialists may have lost some votes to abstention here, probably due to the list of fiascos they've been blamed for around here. People here in Gracia are still mad about the blackout last summer, and they blame the city and regional governments, in Socialist hands.

Turnout in the other Socialist stronghold, Andalusia, is 3.6 points below 2004.

Meanwhile, the regions with turnouts above 2004 are PP territory: Madrid and Valencia.

Here in Catalonia, turnout is especially low in the three outer provinces, which are CiU's home ground, so things don't look good for them.

It's starting to look like turnout will be lower than in 2004; at 5 PM 60.9% of eligible voters had voted, compared to 63.0% in the last election. No problems, fortunately, everything is running smoothly. No incidents (knocks on head) worth mentioning; a few jerks superglued a few locks at polling places. No big deal.

They announced that voter turnout at 2 PM was 40.1% of the total eligible, just below turnout at the same time in 2004. In Catalonia it was 39.3%, and in Andalusia it was under 40% as well. Everyone says a high turnout favors the PSOE, and in 2004 it was an exceptionally high 77% at the end of the day. The regions with the highest turnout so far today are the PP strongholds of Valencia and Murcia, though, both over 45%.

When Remei went to vote she saw Barcelona's Cataloony-Green-Commie first couple, Joan Saura and Imma Mayol, who live on our street and vote at the same polling place.

La Vanguardia says there are seats completely up for grabs in sixteen provinces that may be decided by a few hundred votes or less.

It's Election Day! This is going to be a close one. I'll be following the news all day, and if anything happens I'll post it. They'll announce the results at 9 PM.

El Periódico's last survey, released at midnight, shows a small swing to the PSOE, who would beat the PP 43.4% to 38.1%, with 18.1% for other parties. In seats in Congress, the PSOE is ahead 166-170 to 151-155 for the PP; other parties would get 30-34 seats, with 176 needed for an absolute majority.

The press seems to think that the key will be voter turnout; La Vanguardia calculates that turnout above 72% favors the Socialists, and below that figure favors the PP. The reasoning is that PP voters are more loyal and more likely to come out than PSOE voters.

Regionally, the PP is likely to win Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria, La Rioja, Navarra, Castile-Leon, Madrid, Castile-La Mancha, Madrid, Valencia, Murcia, the Balearics, the Canaries, and Ceuta and Melilla; its biggest vote sources are Madrid and Valencia. The PSOE is favored in Aragon, Catalonia, Extremadura, and Andalusia, with its heartlands in Catalonia and Andalusia. The PNV will probably win in the Basque Country.

Another key to the election: Andalusia is also holding the election for its regional parliament today, which will bring out more voters there than in other regions. This obviously favors the PSOE, since they dominate Andalusia politically.

PSOE and PP representatives got in a very inappropriate argument at the funeral for Isaías Carrasco in Mondragón; regional Socialist leader Patxi López verbally attacked both Mariano Rajoy and PP Basque leader María San Gil.

Meanwhile, the car in which the terrorists escaped the crime scene has not been found. Police suspect the killers are hiding at a safe house in or near Mondragón.

The Times has a long article on the election. Check it out. The Guardian and the AP have articles as well.

Update on the murder of Isaías Carrasco by ETA: Carrasco had just gotten into his car to go to work at 1:30 PM when the ETA gunman fired five shots at him through the windshield, hitting him in the chest with two and in the neck with one. His wife and daughter heard the gunfire and rushed outside as Carrasco got out of his car, stumbled halfway across the street, and fell, still conscious. The gunman, who was tall, wearing a fake beard, and dressed in black, ran to a silver Seat Cordoba in which a getaway driver was waiting, and they escaped. Carrasco died in the hospital less than an hour later.

Carrasco had lost his city council seat in the last municipal election, and had decided to give up his police bodyguard at the end of last year. Most politically active anti-ETA Basques, especially those who hold public office, need official bodyguards.

The mayor of Mondragón, known in Basque as Arrasate, belongs to the ETA-front party ANV; when she arrived at the hospital, Carrasco's wife told her to get lost.

The political parties stopped their campaigning, calling off their final campaign rallies, which were to have been held last night (in Spain all campaigning is prohibited the day before an election, i.e. today). Rajoy managed to sneak in a dig at Zapatero, saying that no matter who won the election, the government would never negotiate with ETA again.

All parties represented in the Congress of Deputies agreed on a joint declaration condemning the murder and promising to maintain a united front against ETA. The PP tried to get the declaration to include a commitment not to negotiate with ETA and a revocation of the 2005 parliamentary resolution in favor of negotiations, but the other parties refused.

I still think the murder of Carrasco politically favors the PP; though of course I wish that terrorist murders had no effect on voter intention, we know they do. Specfically, the murder is going to bring out citizens who were going to abstain, and who will now vote for the PP. I don't think it's going to change the mind of more than a few voters who were already committed to a party, and I don't think it's going to have the effect of the March 11 bombings, but it will have some effect.

El Periódico of Andorra's latest survey (taking advantage of a legal loophole, as surveys are banned in Spain the five days before an election) was released early this afternoon; it has the PSOE ahead of the PP, 43.0%-39.0%, with other parties getting 18.0%. The PSOE would get 162-166 seats in Congress, the PP would get 154-158, and other parties would get 30-34. 176 seats are needed for a majority.

Other news: Looks like there won't be a war in South America, as Chavez and Correa have made nice with Uribe. Despite Chavez's arms purchases from Russia and Spain, the Colombians have a much bigger US-armed and -trained army, with experience fighting the FARC, and would stomp Venezuela's ass if it came to it. Remember when Chavez ordered ten batallions to the frontier last week? None of them ever moved.

The European Union sent its commissioner for the Third World to Cuba yesterday; he got to talk to human slime foreign minister Pérez Roque, Castro's Ribbentrop, and tomorrow he may even get an audience with President Raúl. The EU wants to "break the ice and open the path to relaunch Cuba-EU dialogue...seeking the full normalization of relations." I say the hell with that. Fortunately the British and the Czechs are going to say the hell with it, too.

The Barcelona court investigating the illegal abortions scandal has subpoenaed nearly 3000 medical histories. Women who underwent abortions at the accused clinics testified that they had not been subjected to any medical tests, not even psychological ones; abortion is legal in Spain for medical reasons, but abortion on mere demand is prohibited, unlike in the US. Six people have been charged with illegal abortion, conspiracy, forgery, and practicing medicine without a license.

Of course the ETA murder has forced the rest of the news into the background today.

Zap and Rajoy held their final campaign rallies last night; Spanish law prohibits campaigning on the day before the election, for some reason. It also prohibits the Spanish press from publishing electoral surveys for five days before the election, which is of course absurd.

El Periódico has figured out a way to get around the law; they have an edition published in Andorra, an independent country, and that edition is not subject to Spanish law, so they've put a link to it on their webpage.

Their survey, taken yesterday, has Zap leading with 42.6% of the vote to Rajoy's 38.6%. 18.8% will vote for other parties. This is basically the same result as almost all the other surveys have shown. They have the PSOE with 161-165 seats, about the same as the 164 it won in 2004, and the PP with 153-157 seats, better than the 148 it won in 2004. For the smaller parties, they predict: CiU 8-9 seats, the PNV 6, ERC 5, the Communists 4, and other parties 7-10. 176 seats are needed for a majority in Congress; the PSOE will probably have to govern from the minority, making temporary alliances with smaller parties.

The Barcelona bus strike continues; 17 buses were sabotaged this morning, and militant strikers have been harassing drivers who are not going along with the strike. It's not like these guys are scabs, either, since the two major labor unions, the UGT and CCOO, are opposed to the strike as well. The strikers had a demo yesterday with the university students, who are also "on strike," and took advantage of it to occupy CCOO and UGT headquarters, paint graffiti all over the offices, and attack one of the CCOO officials. We can has jail?

Yeah, the university students are "striking" as well. Who the hell cares whether these wankers go to class or not? They can strike for the rest of their lives as far as I'm concerned. They brought out 5000 demonstrators and snarled up the center of the city, with some help from the bus drivers. They're whining about the European Union's Bologna plan for university education: they say it will lead to "privatization." They're probably afraid someone will make them study, which is just a total bummer.

Update on the ETA murder in Mondragón: The killer was a large man wearing a fake beard and a black leather jacket. Both Zapatero and Rajoy have suspended campaigning, and they will meet this afternoon.

Breaking news: ETA has committed murder again. A gunman shot Miguel Isaias Carrasco, 42, three times in the back of the head at 1:30 this afternoon outside his house in Mondragón, Guipúzcoa province. When he was shot he was accompanied by his wife and daughter. Carrasco had been a Socialist city council member in the town of Arrasate.

Our sympathies and condolences to his family and friends.

ETA must be destroyed. No negotiations with terrorists.

The murder will affect the electoral campaign: Zapatero will be hurt, as his government held secret negotiations with ETA during their so-called truce. The PP will benefit, as it has a much stronger tough-on-ETA record and discourse.

It's a terrible shame that terrorism will affect the result of the election, as it did in 2004.

I have an article up at Pajamas Media on the Spanish general election, so go check it out.

Reports from the Anglosphere press on the Spanish election:

The Independent says Zap is slightly ahead but the electorate is unexcited, in an article datelined today.

Reuters says that the slowing economy hurts Zap's chances. It also has a longer piece by the same reporter from a few days before.

The Times has a leader saying that the economy's bad, but Zap will probably win because the PP's done a poor job.

Newsweek has a long piece saying the economy's going downhill and both candidates are weak.

The Guardian has a piece on the first Zap-Rajoy debate, saying the main issues were the economy and immigration. Here's a profile of Zap, here's one of Rajoy, and here's a question-and-answer on the main issues, all by the same reporter.

Credit Suisse has a business news website; they interview their Spain analyst on the election and the economy.

Dow Jones has a piece on the economy and the election, as well.

The Economist says the candidates are making too many promises.

Here's the Financial Times column that Rajoy cited in the last debate.

The AP accuses the two candidates of bickering.

And, in case anyone's interested, here's the World Socialist Web Site's take.

News from these here parts: Madrid archbishop Rouco Varela defeated incumbent Bilbao archbishop Blazquez in the election for the president of the bishops' conference. Blazquez was elected vice-president. Both are conservative, but Blazquez is considered more friendly toward regional nationalisms. Elections are every three years; Blazquez served only one term, while Rouco has previously served two.

This really shouldn't be particularly big news, but the Church is considered by many people to be very powerful in Spain. I think most people overrate the Church's importance and influence; it's a hangover from the 1940s and 50s, when the Church was part of the coalition that supported the Franco regime. This is one reason why the Spanish Left is so anticlerical, though anticlericalism has been strong in Spain ever since the 19th century.

The Church's greatest source of influence now is their school system, which is partially funded by the state. That, of course, is bullcrap. I'm not anti-religion or anti-Church--I think they do a lot more good than harm--but there ought to be a strict separation between God and Caesar.

Only four more days until the general election. I still think it's going to be very close. The Spanish people seem to be rather disillusioned about the campaign; the general reaction is that Zap and Rajoy are just slagging one another off and making promises that won't be kept. Nobody seems to be very enthusiastic. By the way, Toni Soler in La Vanguardia agreed with me that Rajoy won the debate. So that makes three of us: me and two borderline Cataloonies, Soler and Rahola.

The Great Transport Snafu continues: an electric power line came down across the train tracks in Sant Andreu this morning and three commuter lines are shut down. Power is out in the area, and we don't know when it'll be back up.

The bus drivers' strike continues into its third day. Early this morning strikers sabotaged 17 buses, including stoning one containing passengers in my neighborhood; they broke windows and rear view mirrors, and punctured tires. Fortunately nobody got hurt. I have no idea at all why this shit is tolerated. They're going to snarl up Plaza Catalunya this afternoon with an illegal demo, just to piss off the citizens even more. One arrest has been made: a striker punched a cop in the nose on Monday, and they actually came and took him away. Where I come from, if you attack a cop, the consequences are rather more unpleasant than just getting booked downtown.

And the saga of the African boat people continues, as well. A cayuco washed up on Tenerife after three days at sea, carrying two dead people and 53 who were still alive. The international media is not covering this story at all.

El Pais reports that Pedro Varela, the Nazi owner of a Barcelona bookstore specializing in trash, garbage, and lies, has been sentenced to seven months in prison for Holocaust denial. Since it's a sentence of less than one year, it will be suspended. They acquitted him of "incitement to racial hatred," for some unknown reason. I'm against jailing him, of course, since political speech should not be censored no matter how disgusting it is. You don't win a battle of ideas by silencing the opponent, you win it by letting him make his case and then crushing it with facts and reason.

El Periodico has a story titled, "South America rejects 'preventive war' against FARC." It says that Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and (of course) France are strongly opposed to such a thing. Jesus. How exactly is it a 'preventive war' when the elected government tries to wipe out a gang of murdering terrorist kidnappers and dope dealers? They add that 1) Venezuela and Ecuador have rearmed 2) they're both trying to destabilize the Uribe government 3) Chavez has been subsidizing the FARC 4) If there's a war, it'll be America's fault.

Good news for the Republicans: McCain has locked up the nomination and Huckabee has withdrawn from the race. Better news: Hillary beat Obama in Texas and Ohio, and there's going to be six more weeks of internecine Democratic war until the Pennsylvania primary. I think the Democrats are going to blow this election. I also think Obama has peaked way too early, and that his schtick will get old long before November. This is getting plenty of coverage in Spain.

Quick debate post-mortem: The Spanish press generally didn't agree with my verdict that Rajoy was the clear winner. Their surveys pretty much came out the same as they did after the first debate, which means that not many minds were changed. The only one of La Vanguardia's commentators who gave Rajoy a win was, of all people, Pilar Rahola.

Round Five: The future.

Zap brings up education again, which I would not do. Wants to spend more money on it. Promises everyone will learn English and that he'll send kids to England with scholarships. Rajoy says the educational system sucks and it's Zap's fault because he overturned the PP's educational policy. Accuses Zap of being full of hot air about English. Says kids move up without passing their courses and that teachers get no respect. Says Zap talks about ethics classes while forgetting about technology. Blasts Zap on housing real quick. Zap says it's not fair to compare Spain with other countries because we started out less developed. Now he says let's spend more money. Accuses Rajoy of allowing land prices to go up 500%. Talks about building more public housing. Zap really is talking tax and spend, tax and spend.

Rajoy on the attack again, on housing prices once more. He is staying on message very well. Zap looks negative and angry; he's looking down and frowning. Rajoy's graphs are a lot better. He sure calls Zap a liar an awful lot. Back to education. Says Zap's done nothing. Zap on public housing again, now back to education, saying we're behind because we were poor and now we're catching up. If we spend more money. Takes credit for increase of Internet use. Renewable energy. Stem cell research. Rajoy smacks him one, saying we're behind Estonia in education too. Says Zap talks big and does nothing. Repeats that Zap has taken credit for PP projects. Rajoy wants more demanding school system, says he's willing to spend more but wants results.

Zap goes to climate change, wants to use alternative energy. Promises lots more water for everyone. Rajoy slams Zap for spending less on infrastructure. Now he's back to the damn water plan. Says Zap's done nothing.

Round five to Rajoy. He's organized, Zap is not, and Zap's on the defense.

Closing speech: Zap thanks Spanish people. He's committed to putting an end to all discrimination, especially against women, and he wants sustainable development. He's committed to defending peace and respecting diversity. He will govern with sensitivity. Oh, God, he said "Good night and good luck" again. Rajoy: Realism and unity and consensus. Says he wants everyone to be equal, all citizens must be equal. ETA must be defeated. Wants to spend more on health care. Overusing word "capital," meaning very important. Social programs important, but economy is more so because no economy, no social spending. Spain must be unified. Goes back to his dumb example from last debate about the little girl who he wants to govern for. Minus one point for that.

Verdict: Zap goes the distance but it's a unanimous decision to Rajoy. Zap took several hard punches, but no single knockout blow. This debate will convince some of the undecided, but probably won't bring over anybody committed.

Round Four: "Institutional policy."

Zap starts off, saying that regional inequalities have declined. His graphs are hard to see. He's going to build lots of freeways. Cooperation and dialogue. Gender violence, health care, education. Rajoy goes back to the first question in Congress. He should drop that. Rajoy says Zap is taking credit for things the PP did, and he's on the damn water plan again. The Catalan statute and negotiating with ETA were Zap's two big mistakes. Says Zap radicalized regional nationalist parties.

Zap's trying to go back to building train lines and freeways. Talks about consensus and cooperation. Says the PSOE is always willing to negotiate. He's against attacking any Spanish region. Rajoy: Your clownishness is a greater aggression to Catalonia than my words. You didn't start any projects, you're taking credit for ours. You have a problem in Catalonia with Esquerra. Reads a letter on discrimination against Spanish speakers. Zap's talking about his subsidies to Andalusia, now says Rajoy pits citizens against one another. Zap is appealing to his two big vote bases, Andalusia and Catalonia. Zap is trying to nail down the rest of the country. Zap calls Rajoy two-faced and opportunistic.

Rajoy: Zap supports fines for people who get caught putting up signs in Spanish. Wants kids to study Spanish in schools. Now he's calling Zap wishy-washy on the Catalan statute, said Zap lied to Mas. Zap accuses Rajoy of pitting Catalans against other Spaniards again. Rajoy now in favor of dialogue that includes everybody. Says the regions are important but so is the central government.

Round four to Rajoy. It's not a knockout yet but he's winning clearly.

Round three: Security and foreign policy.

Zap starts off, says PSOE will support any party in antiterrorist struggle. Zap's looking around for his stats, he's not prepared. Says Spain's crime rate is low, which is true, and that he'll hire more cops and fight domestic violence and drugs in schools. Zap is lousy at being specific. Rajoy says he'll support any government that doesn't negotiate with terrorists. Blasts Zap's ETA policy, claims he lied to Rajoy himself, the congress and the people. Says Zap didn't consult with anybody.

Zap's mad. Of course he's on the Iraq war, says pulling out troops was his first decision. He promises no soldiers will leave Spain for an illegal war. Rajoy's got Zap in a contradiction, quoting him saying that an Iraq pullout would cause a disaster in 2003. Rajoy on attack, saying Zap forgot Lebanon and Afghanistan, Zap's interrupting him. Zap is really mad. Rajoy's interrupting him now. Zap mentioned March 11, now he's getting personal. Rajoy: What we did after March 11 was arrest the perpetrators. He's back on it: You lied to the Spanish people about the PCTV, De Juana Chaos, Otegi, the T-4 bombing. Liar, liar, pants on fire.

Zap: I never lied. You are guilty of misleading the people about who did the March 11 bombing. Rajoy: You kept negotiating with ETA after promising you wouldn't.

Round Three is a draw. Both sides landed blows. So far Rajoy is winning pretty solidly.

Second round: Social policy.

Zap talks about law financing care of dependents, something his government did pass that I support. More promises about day care and the like. Rajoy's ironic, says there was no dependent care or education before Zap, says his daycare stuff is bogus. Rajoy says good economy is necessary for social programs. Now he's pounding on immigration and Zap's amnesty. Rajoy is going for the knockout, he's attacking, and he's repeating his points well. Here goes Zap again about Rajoy's first question in Congress. This time Rajoy's interrupting Zap, rather than vice versa like last time. Zap's talking about arriving at agreements among employers and unions and social dialogue. He wants to reduce labor accidents and create lots of new jobs.

Here goes Rajoy on immigration--says Zap consulted with nobody. He's on message. Repeating words "order and control." Rajoy's in favor of the dependents law too and wants women working outside the home too. Accuses Zap of not knowing his facts. Now education, kids have no respect and learn nothing. Keeps repeating Zap is causing problems for the citizens. Zap says he will fight illegal immigration. Doesn't seem like he's done much about it. Claims illegals are being repatriated. Says he's spending billions of euros integrating them, which is a hanging curveball. Rajoy: Kick out criminals and no more amnesties. Suggests a guest-worker program.

Rajoy's lowered the boom: he's got a quote from Zap four years ago saying the immigration situation was intolerable then. Zap says PP legalized one million immigrants in eight years. Rajoy comes back saying that immigrants got amnistied with a deportation order as proof of residence. Zap is looking angry and nervous. Rajoy quotes the EU saying Zap's immigration program sucks.

Second round to Rajoy.

Time for the big debate. We're all sitting on the edges of our seats. Remei is pissed off because she wants to watch "CSI." I took a pee and got a beer. This one will follow the same format as the last one, except this time Zap gets first crack.

Zap starts. He's going to continue having the economy grow, though he doesn't explain how. Sustainable development, against world poverty and climate change. Lots of big words and little content. Everyone will have more rights and Spain will be united. He wants a debate of ideas and proposals--his research shows that the sniping in the last debate didn't go over well, I guess.

Rajoy's going to talk about the future too. He's on the attack now. He's against unemployment and inflation. He looks tougher and more confident than last time. "You're not better off than four years ago." Now on to immigration. Order and control. Mildly xenophobic. Blasts separatists, Catalan statute. Educational system sucks, crime rising, housing prices up. Zap negotiated with ETA.

Intro statement to Rajoy.

Round one: The economy.

Zap blames the world economy, says he's going to raise spending, public housing, jobs for unemployed construction workers. He's going through all his promises. This isn't going that well, we've heard it before. Attacks Rajoy for alarmism. Rajoy comes back: Real per capita income down. Inflation is bad. Rajoy quotes the increases in price of milk, etc. This must have gone over well last time. Rajoy quotes the Financial Times saying the economy is crashing. Zap claims that Spain's passed Italy again. Accuses Rajoy of demagoguery with inflation. Now he's quoting some stats of his own.

Rajoy says Zap has no plans to fight inflation. This time he's got some good graphs and is showing them to the camera correctly: prices up, unemployment up. Accuses Zap of doing nothing, entertaining himself with Alliance of Civs, historical memory law. Zap promises more jobs, especially for women, and higher pensions. Will raise minimum wage 30 percent. Doesn't explain where money is coming from. Zap talked about the distribution of wealth again, and Rajoy's saying under Zap difference between rich and poor increased. He promises to cut taxes, income and corporate income tax, reduce bureaucracy. Now Zap's arguing about the first question Rajoy asked him again, this won't go over. Rajoy says Zap ignored the economy and lived off the PP govt's good results. Now he's whacked Zap on Endesa.

First round to Rajoy.

Quick update: Tonight's the second round of the Great Zap-Rajoy Debates, and we'll be liveblogging it again. I promise not to get bored and blow it off like I did with the Catalan debate. Rajoy has to go for the knockout tonight, so it should be interesting.

La Vanguardia has a survey out today taken in the days after the first debate, and they've got the PSOE leading the PP 43.5%-39.5%. The PSOE would get 162-167 seats, and the PP would get 152-156, with 176 needed for an absolute majority. They have CiU with 8-9 seats, the PNV with 6-7, ERC with 6, and the Communists with 4-5. This election could go either way.

The bus drivers' strike is on again as of today. The "pickets" tried to block the buses providing the obligatory minimum service from leaving the Sant Andreu bus garage, and the cops charged them and one cop was injured. Last night six city buses were vandalized by strikers who smashed windows and punctured tires; no passengers were hurt, fortunately. The strikers also super-glued the locks at fourteen Metro stations last night, but employees were able to open up the stations without much delay. No arrests were made.

It really pisses me off when strikers behave like they're above the law. You can strike, you can carry signs, you can get a permit and have a demo, that's all within your rights. But you can't vandalize city property or block traffic or put citizens in danger or fight with the cops, and if you do the law ought to come down on your ass.

That idiot Chavez and his buttboy Correa are going to start a war and it's going to get ugly and the Illustrated and Enlightened around here are going to blame the Americans.

Here in Gracia it's Sant Medir's day, whoever he was. There are clubs that get all dressed up and have parades on horseback, throwing candy to the kids. It's a nice tradition, going back to the 19th century. I especially like the horses. The only problem is that the streets end up covered in horse poop and squished candy, which is not too horrible since it's only once a year.

The Ertzaintza, the Basque regional police, arrested two of the etarras on the most wanted list; they were apparently part of ETA's shelter apparatus, hiding out other etarras on the run. Good. Keep the pressure on these bastards.

Duran Lleida isn't campaigning today either. Hope he's OK.

El Pais has an election survey out today, giving the PSOE 42.9% of the vote and 165-169 seats, and the PP 38.8% and 148-154 seats. Neither party would have an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies, where 176 seats are needed. The Communists would get only four seats. CiU would get 9 seats, ERC 5-6, the PNV 7, and Coalition Canaria 2-3. According to these figures, the PSOE will probably be able to form a government with CiU.

One caveat: The survey was taken between Feb. 8 and 27, so some of the results are a month old, and almost all of them are pre-debate.

Prediction: It'll be closer than this, because of the hidden PP vote: it's so socially unacceptable in some places to admit, even to a pollster, that you are a conservative, that people lie about it. Besides, Zap is not very popular, and though he has the incumbent's advantage, Rajoy has another week to campaign and another chance at a knockout blow in the second debate.

Backing up my presentiment is an ABC survey, which gives the PSOE a 42%-40% lead over the PP, though it does not go into the distribution of seats in Congress. Their survey was taken over the past week. ABC, a generally pro-PP newspaper, says 1) inflation and unemployment have angered many voters 2) 80% of those who voted PP in 2004 will do the same, while the figure is only 68% for the PSOE 3) it appears that late deciders are trending PP 4) turnout is expected to be 70%, six points lower than in 2004, which favors the PP since its voters are more loyal 5) the most important issues to the voters are: the economic crisis, unemployment, terrorism, immigration, and housing. The PSOE is vulnerable on all these issues.

Campaign promises: Rajoy said he'd exempt people earning less than €16,000 a year from all income taxes. Zap said the damn water plan was dead and buried.

I suppose you saw that the crazy French actress who won the Academy Award gave an interview saying that 9-11 was a government plot and that the moon landing was faked. I don't think she's all that beautiful, either. In contrast, Angelina Jolie went to Iraq and said some very sensible things, and Bob Geldof again praised the Bush administration's commitment to Africa. By the way, they interviewed Tom Hanks over here a couple of weeks ago, and the interviewer tried to get him to spout off about politics; Hanks didn't take the bait, and said he was concerned about education and health care.