33% of the vote counted: PSOE 170 seats, PP 150.

As usually happens, the official figures change a great deal over the normal election evening: with 30% of the vote counted, it's PSOE 172 seats, PP 144.

With 17% of the vote counted, the official figures are PSOE 173 seats, PP 136. These are, of course, by no means definite.

TV3's exit poll for Catalonia gives the PSC 45.7% of the vote and 24-27 seats; CiU 20.9% and 9-11 seats; the PP 16.3% and 7-8 seats; ERC 8.4% and 3-4 seats; and ICV 3.9% and 1 seat.

Pepe Blanco, the Socialists' organizational secretary (that is, top apparatchik) has claimed victory. The PP is not conceding anything so far; they still think the high turnout in Valencia and Madrid is going to help them out.

So what does it mean? If the surveys are right, and they all seem to agree, then just off the top of my head:

1) Zap has very close to an absolute majority, and he has more of a mandate than he did in his first term.
2) Rajoy will have to step down as PP leader, perhaps not immediately, but they need a new candidate for the next election.
3) The two leading candidates to replace Rajoy have to be Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón and Esperanza Aguirre.
4) I don't think Zap is going to do anything particularly different than he did in his first term.
5) The PP strategy of confrontation obviously did not work.
6) Neither the debates nor the murder of Isaías Carrasco had much effect on the voters.
7) The turnout was nowhere near low enough to help out the PP.
8) The Communists got completely destroyed.
8a) How much you want to bet that most of the Communist voters went over to Zap because they're so angry at the PP?
9) CiU did pretty well, and if Zap gets below about 170 seats, he'll have to cut a deal with them. The PNV did pretty well too, so a good showing by the comparatively moderate regional nationalists.
10) The more radical regional nationalist parties, ERC and the BNG, got stomped.
11) Zap's not going to negotiate with ETA any more no matter what happens.
12) I bet he doesn't keep most of his promises, though he's going to have to carry through on the €400 tax rebate.

All the other TV network surveys have similar figures to TV3's. They have the PSOE between 163 and 178 seats, and the PP between 142 and 152.

The polls in peninsular Spain close at 8 PM (in the Canary Islands at 9 our time), and TV3's exit poll for all of Spain says it looks like a big win for Zapatero. They have the PSOE with 45.0% to 38.6% for the PP. The PSOE would win 172-176 seats, and the PP 148-152. The smaller parties are getting whacked. The Communists drop to only 2-3 seats, and Esquerra wins 4. CiU holds out with 9-11 seats and the PNV gets 6-7. Other parties winning seats: The BNG, CC, Rosa Diez's UPD, and Nafarroa Bai.

We'll see if these results change over the evening; they're likely to. Right now, though, TV3's figures point at a Zapatero able to govern from the minority without needing to form a coalition.

They've announced that the first official results will be released after 9:30. Also, turnout in the Basque Country is very low, seven points below 2004.

TV3 is leading with the report that at 6 PM voter participation in Spain was 61%, two percentage points below the last election in 2004, and that in Catalonia turnout is five points below 2004. This would seem to favor the PP, since Catalonia is a Socialist stronghold.

Looks like the Socialists may have lost some votes to abstention here, probably due to the list of fiascos they've been blamed for around here. People here in Gracia are still mad about the blackout last summer, and they blame the city and regional governments, in Socialist hands.

Turnout in the other Socialist stronghold, Andalusia, is 3.6 points below 2004.

Meanwhile, the regions with turnouts above 2004 are PP territory: Madrid and Valencia.

Here in Catalonia, turnout is especially low in the three outer provinces, which are CiU's home ground, so things don't look good for them.

It's starting to look like turnout will be lower than in 2004; at 5 PM 60.9% of eligible voters had voted, compared to 63.0% in the last election. No problems, fortunately, everything is running smoothly. No incidents (knocks on head) worth mentioning; a few jerks superglued a few locks at polling places. No big deal.

They announced that voter turnout at 2 PM was 40.1% of the total eligible, just below turnout at the same time in 2004. In Catalonia it was 39.3%, and in Andalusia it was under 40% as well. Everyone says a high turnout favors the PSOE, and in 2004 it was an exceptionally high 77% at the end of the day. The regions with the highest turnout so far today are the PP strongholds of Valencia and Murcia, though, both over 45%.

When Remei went to vote she saw Barcelona's Cataloony-Green-Commie first couple, Joan Saura and Imma Mayol, who live on our street and vote at the same polling place.

La Vanguardia says there are seats completely up for grabs in sixteen provinces that may be decided by a few hundred votes or less.

It's Election Day! This is going to be a close one. I'll be following the news all day, and if anything happens I'll post it. They'll announce the results at 9 PM.

El Periódico's last survey, released at midnight, shows a small swing to the PSOE, who would beat the PP 43.4% to 38.1%, with 18.1% for other parties. In seats in Congress, the PSOE is ahead 166-170 to 151-155 for the PP; other parties would get 30-34 seats, with 176 needed for an absolute majority.

The press seems to think that the key will be voter turnout; La Vanguardia calculates that turnout above 72% favors the Socialists, and below that figure favors the PP. The reasoning is that PP voters are more loyal and more likely to come out than PSOE voters.

Regionally, the PP is likely to win Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria, La Rioja, Navarra, Castile-Leon, Madrid, Castile-La Mancha, Madrid, Valencia, Murcia, the Balearics, the Canaries, and Ceuta and Melilla; its biggest vote sources are Madrid and Valencia. The PSOE is favored in Aragon, Catalonia, Extremadura, and Andalusia, with its heartlands in Catalonia and Andalusia. The PNV will probably win in the Basque Country.

Another key to the election: Andalusia is also holding the election for its regional parliament today, which will bring out more voters there than in other regions. This obviously favors the PSOE, since they dominate Andalusia politically.

PSOE and PP representatives got in a very inappropriate argument at the funeral for Isaías Carrasco in Mondragón; regional Socialist leader Patxi López verbally attacked both Mariano Rajoy and PP Basque leader María San Gil.

Meanwhile, the car in which the terrorists escaped the crime scene has not been found. Police suspect the killers are hiding at a safe house in or near Mondragón.

The Times has a long article on the election. Check it out. The Guardian and the AP have articles as well.

Update on the murder of Isaías Carrasco by ETA: Carrasco had just gotten into his car to go to work at 1:30 PM when the ETA gunman fired five shots at him through the windshield, hitting him in the chest with two and in the neck with one. His wife and daughter heard the gunfire and rushed outside as Carrasco got out of his car, stumbled halfway across the street, and fell, still conscious. The gunman, who was tall, wearing a fake beard, and dressed in black, ran to a silver Seat Cordoba in which a getaway driver was waiting, and they escaped. Carrasco died in the hospital less than an hour later.

Carrasco had lost his city council seat in the last municipal election, and had decided to give up his police bodyguard at the end of last year. Most politically active anti-ETA Basques, especially those who hold public office, need official bodyguards.

The mayor of Mondragón, known in Basque as Arrasate, belongs to the ETA-front party ANV; when she arrived at the hospital, Carrasco's wife told her to get lost.

The political parties stopped their campaigning, calling off their final campaign rallies, which were to have been held last night (in Spain all campaigning is prohibited the day before an election, i.e. today). Rajoy managed to sneak in a dig at Zapatero, saying that no matter who won the election, the government would never negotiate with ETA again.

All parties represented in the Congress of Deputies agreed on a joint declaration condemning the murder and promising to maintain a united front against ETA. The PP tried to get the declaration to include a commitment not to negotiate with ETA and a revocation of the 2005 parliamentary resolution in favor of negotiations, but the other parties refused.

I still think the murder of Carrasco politically favors the PP; though of course I wish that terrorist murders had no effect on voter intention, we know they do. Specfically, the murder is going to bring out citizens who were going to abstain, and who will now vote for the PP. I don't think it's going to change the mind of more than a few voters who were already committed to a party, and I don't think it's going to have the effect of the March 11 bombings, but it will have some effect.

El Periódico of Andorra's latest survey (taking advantage of a legal loophole, as surveys are banned in Spain the five days before an election) was released early this afternoon; it has the PSOE ahead of the PP, 43.0%-39.0%, with other parties getting 18.0%. The PSOE would get 162-166 seats in Congress, the PP would get 154-158, and other parties would get 30-34. 176 seats are needed for a majority.

Other news: Looks like there won't be a war in South America, as Chavez and Correa have made nice with Uribe. Despite Chavez's arms purchases from Russia and Spain, the Colombians have a much bigger US-armed and -trained army, with experience fighting the FARC, and would stomp Venezuela's ass if it came to it. Remember when Chavez ordered ten batallions to the frontier last week? None of them ever moved.

The European Union sent its commissioner for the Third World to Cuba yesterday; he got to talk to human slime foreign minister Pérez Roque, Castro's Ribbentrop, and tomorrow he may even get an audience with President Raúl. The EU wants to "break the ice and open the path to relaunch Cuba-EU dialogue...seeking the full normalization of relations." I say the hell with that. Fortunately the British and the Czechs are going to say the hell with it, too.

The Barcelona court investigating the illegal abortions scandal has subpoenaed nearly 3000 medical histories. Women who underwent abortions at the accused clinics testified that they had not been subjected to any medical tests, not even psychological ones; abortion is legal in Spain for medical reasons, but abortion on mere demand is prohibited, unlike in the US. Six people have been charged with illegal abortion, conspiracy, forgery, and practicing medicine without a license.

Of course the ETA murder has forced the rest of the news into the background today.

Zap and Rajoy held their final campaign rallies last night; Spanish law prohibits campaigning on the day before the election, for some reason. It also prohibits the Spanish press from publishing electoral surveys for five days before the election, which is of course absurd.

El Periódico has figured out a way to get around the law; they have an edition published in Andorra, an independent country, and that edition is not subject to Spanish law, so they've put a link to it on their webpage.

Their survey, taken yesterday, has Zap leading with 42.6% of the vote to Rajoy's 38.6%. 18.8% will vote for other parties. This is basically the same result as almost all the other surveys have shown. They have the PSOE with 161-165 seats, about the same as the 164 it won in 2004, and the PP with 153-157 seats, better than the 148 it won in 2004. For the smaller parties, they predict: CiU 8-9 seats, the PNV 6, ERC 5, the Communists 4, and other parties 7-10. 176 seats are needed for a majority in Congress; the PSOE will probably have to govern from the minority, making temporary alliances with smaller parties.

The Barcelona bus strike continues; 17 buses were sabotaged this morning, and militant strikers have been harassing drivers who are not going along with the strike. It's not like these guys are scabs, either, since the two major labor unions, the UGT and CCOO, are opposed to the strike as well. The strikers had a demo yesterday with the university students, who are also "on strike," and took advantage of it to occupy CCOO and UGT headquarters, paint graffiti all over the offices, and attack one of the CCOO officials. We can has jail?

Yeah, the university students are "striking" as well. Who the hell cares whether these wankers go to class or not? They can strike for the rest of their lives as far as I'm concerned. They brought out 5000 demonstrators and snarled up the center of the city, with some help from the bus drivers. They're whining about the European Union's Bologna plan for university education: they say it will lead to "privatization." They're probably afraid someone will make them study, which is just a total bummer.

Update on the ETA murder in Mondragón: The killer was a large man wearing a fake beard and a black leather jacket. Both Zapatero and Rajoy have suspended campaigning, and they will meet this afternoon.

Breaking news: ETA has committed murder again. A gunman shot Miguel Isaias Carrasco, 42, three times in the back of the head at 1:30 this afternoon outside his house in Mondragón, Guipúzcoa province. When he was shot he was accompanied by his wife and daughter. Carrasco had been a Socialist city council member in the town of Arrasate.

Our sympathies and condolences to his family and friends.

ETA must be destroyed. No negotiations with terrorists.

The murder will affect the electoral campaign: Zapatero will be hurt, as his government held secret negotiations with ETA during their so-called truce. The PP will benefit, as it has a much stronger tough-on-ETA record and discourse.

It's a terrible shame that terrorism will affect the result of the election, as it did in 2004.

I have an article up at Pajamas Media on the Spanish general election, so go check it out.

Reports from the Anglosphere press on the Spanish election:

The Independent says Zap is slightly ahead but the electorate is unexcited, in an article datelined today.

Reuters says that the slowing economy hurts Zap's chances. It also has a longer piece by the same reporter from a few days before.

The Times has a leader saying that the economy's bad, but Zap will probably win because the PP's done a poor job.

Newsweek has a long piece saying the economy's going downhill and both candidates are weak.

The Guardian has a piece on the first Zap-Rajoy debate, saying the main issues were the economy and immigration. Here's a profile of Zap, here's one of Rajoy, and here's a question-and-answer on the main issues, all by the same reporter.

Credit Suisse has a business news website; they interview their Spain analyst on the election and the economy.

Dow Jones has a piece on the economy and the election, as well.

The Economist says the candidates are making too many promises.

Here's the Financial Times column that Rajoy cited in the last debate.

The AP accuses the two candidates of bickering.

And, in case anyone's interested, here's the World Socialist Web Site's take.

News from these here parts: Madrid archbishop Rouco Varela defeated incumbent Bilbao archbishop Blazquez in the election for the president of the bishops' conference. Blazquez was elected vice-president. Both are conservative, but Blazquez is considered more friendly toward regional nationalisms. Elections are every three years; Blazquez served only one term, while Rouco has previously served two.

This really shouldn't be particularly big news, but the Church is considered by many people to be very powerful in Spain. I think most people overrate the Church's importance and influence; it's a hangover from the 1940s and 50s, when the Church was part of the coalition that supported the Franco regime. This is one reason why the Spanish Left is so anticlerical, though anticlericalism has been strong in Spain ever since the 19th century.

The Church's greatest source of influence now is their school system, which is partially funded by the state. That, of course, is bullcrap. I'm not anti-religion or anti-Church--I think they do a lot more good than harm--but there ought to be a strict separation between God and Caesar.

Only four more days until the general election. I still think it's going to be very close. The Spanish people seem to be rather disillusioned about the campaign; the general reaction is that Zap and Rajoy are just slagging one another off and making promises that won't be kept. Nobody seems to be very enthusiastic. By the way, Toni Soler in La Vanguardia agreed with me that Rajoy won the debate. So that makes three of us: me and two borderline Cataloonies, Soler and Rahola.

The Great Transport Snafu continues: an electric power line came down across the train tracks in Sant Andreu this morning and three commuter lines are shut down. Power is out in the area, and we don't know when it'll be back up.

The bus drivers' strike continues into its third day. Early this morning strikers sabotaged 17 buses, including stoning one containing passengers in my neighborhood; they broke windows and rear view mirrors, and punctured tires. Fortunately nobody got hurt. I have no idea at all why this shit is tolerated. They're going to snarl up Plaza Catalunya this afternoon with an illegal demo, just to piss off the citizens even more. One arrest has been made: a striker punched a cop in the nose on Monday, and they actually came and took him away. Where I come from, if you attack a cop, the consequences are rather more unpleasant than just getting booked downtown.

And the saga of the African boat people continues, as well. A cayuco washed up on Tenerife after three days at sea, carrying two dead people and 53 who were still alive. The international media is not covering this story at all.

El Pais reports that Pedro Varela, the Nazi owner of a Barcelona bookstore specializing in trash, garbage, and lies, has been sentenced to seven months in prison for Holocaust denial. Since it's a sentence of less than one year, it will be suspended. They acquitted him of "incitement to racial hatred," for some unknown reason. I'm against jailing him, of course, since political speech should not be censored no matter how disgusting it is. You don't win a battle of ideas by silencing the opponent, you win it by letting him make his case and then crushing it with facts and reason.

El Periodico has a story titled, "South America rejects 'preventive war' against FARC." It says that Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and (of course) France are strongly opposed to such a thing. Jesus. How exactly is it a 'preventive war' when the elected government tries to wipe out a gang of murdering terrorist kidnappers and dope dealers? They add that 1) Venezuela and Ecuador have rearmed 2) they're both trying to destabilize the Uribe government 3) Chavez has been subsidizing the FARC 4) If there's a war, it'll be America's fault.

Good news for the Republicans: McCain has locked up the nomination and Huckabee has withdrawn from the race. Better news: Hillary beat Obama in Texas and Ohio, and there's going to be six more weeks of internecine Democratic war until the Pennsylvania primary. I think the Democrats are going to blow this election. I also think Obama has peaked way too early, and that his schtick will get old long before November. This is getting plenty of coverage in Spain.

Quick debate post-mortem: The Spanish press generally didn't agree with my verdict that Rajoy was the clear winner. Their surveys pretty much came out the same as they did after the first debate, which means that not many minds were changed. The only one of La Vanguardia's commentators who gave Rajoy a win was, of all people, Pilar Rahola.