Fallout from the election: Zap and CiU are in no hurry to cut a deal, but I don't see any other way out for Zap. He's unlikely to get support from the PNV, and anyway he needs seven seats for a majority and the PNV only has six. Zap would also need the Canary Coalition's two votes, or the Commies' two votes, for the 176 votes in Congress necessary to seat him as prime minister.

CiU is making noises that sound like they want a coalition, with a couple of ministries in Madrid. And that's not all they're going to want. My guess is that the Catalan Tripartite falls apart sometime pretty soon because of the collapse of the Commies and Esquerra, and Montilla will govern from the minority with punctual support from CiU. As CiU considers itself the opposition party in Catalonia, it won't go for a coalition government in the Generalitat.

The Catalan Socialists want a big payoff for their huge win on Sunday that put Zapatero over the top. They want two or three ministries for themselves, and they want one of their people in the inner circle of the PSOE politburo. They're going to have to swallow the appointment of hardcore Spanish nationalist Jose Bono as president of the Congress, though.

Rajoy is going to stay as PP leader, though they're going to have a national convention this fall. I bet somebody else is chosen there, since Rajoy has lost twice already. La Vanguardia says that Madrid regional premier Esperanza Aguirre is maneuvering for the top spot.

The head that rolled at Esquerra was that of head counsellor Joan Puigcercós, who announced his resignation in order to serve as full-time party secretary. There's going to be a faction fight between Puigcercós and Carod-Rovira at ERC's convention in June. I hope they both lose.

Regional results in all of Spain:

Catalonia PSOE 25, CiU 11, PP 7, ERC 3, IU 1
Andalusia PSOE 36, PP 25
Basque Country PSOE 9, PNV 6, PP 3
Navarre PP 2, PSOE 2, NaBai 1
Madrid PP 18, PSOE 15, IU 1, UPD 1
Asturias PP 4, PSOE 4
Canaries PSOE 7, PP 6, CC 2
Galicia PP 11, PSOE 10, BNG 2
Valencia PP 19, PSOE 14
Murcia PP 7, PSOE 3
Castile-La Mancha PP 12, PSOE 9
Extremadura PSOE 5, PP 5
Cantabria PP 3, PSOE 2
Aragon PSOE 8, PP 5
Balearics PP 4, PSOE 4
La Rioja PP 2, PSOE 2
Castile-Leon PP 18-PSOE 14

So, basically, the PP either wins or breaks even everywhere but Catalonia and the Basque Country, where the moderate regional nationalists win much of the conservative and / or Catholic vote; Andalusia, the Socialists' historic heartland and recipient of much government spending; and Aragon, where the PP angered the locals with the damn water plan. Note that anti-Catalan Valencia is the region where the PP has the biggest advantage.

Atypical provinces: Sun Belt Almeria, in Andalusia, backed the PP; industrial Leon, in Castile-Leon, backed the PSOE.

Other news: The Eliot Spitzer scandal has made the news over here, and there's some whingeing about Yankee Puritanism, as usual. I figure the guy crossed three lines: 1) he's a law-and-order crusader, and he is a paying client of the organized-crime prostitution racket 2) he cheated on his wife, embarrassing her and their three children 3) he must be pretty stupid to be paying hookers while he's governor. If you're a single adult and you are sexually active, society pretty much figures that's your business. But if you're married and patronizing hookers, that's not.

How much you want to bet that he's some kind of desperate sex weirdo whose wife refused to cooperate with his kinky fetishes? That's the only logical explanation I can come up with.

Of course, I think prostitution ought to be legalized in official red-light districts, which would be established far away from residential areas. Then you can require medical checks and licensing, you can tax it, you can keep the kids away, you can drive pimps and organized crime out, and you can keep an eye on the prostitutes' personal safety.

In fact, I'd do the same thing with gambling; I'd legalize casinos, but only in the red-light districts, and I'd require by law that the casinos be as unattractive as possible: no alcohol or drugs on the premises, no entertainment, no restaurants, just gambling tables and slot machines. And I'd legalize drugs as well, and require them to be sold only in the red-light districts, too.

Get this: The Vatican came up with a new list of mortal sins for the 21st century. It's incredibly dumb. They are:

1) "Bioethical violations," such as birth control. Ridiculous. We should be giving out free condoms and Norplant to anyone who wants them to keep the birth rate down and control sexually transmitted diseases. Which, if the Pope pulled his head out of his ass, he would see as the biggest threat to human health in Africa's poorest countries.
2) "Morally questionable experiments." If we're talking Dr. Mengele or Brave New World, I completely agree, but the Pope means stem cell research, which is going to save millions of lives in the medium term.
3) Drug addiction. I thought drug addiction was now considered a disease. Talk about blaming the victim. I also thought alcohol was a drug. This means everybody in Ireland is going to hell.
4. Polluting. So everybody who drives a car is going to hell, too. Besides, the most pollution per capita is caused in poor countries where poor people use biofuels (wood and dung) for cooking and heat. Just like Jesus and all our ancestors until about 1900 did. These people are sinners? I don't see that they have much choice.
5) "Contributing to widen the gap between rich and poor." Ridiculous. Who cares if the rich get richer as long as the poor get richer too? If poor people's incomes double, and rich people's income is multiplied by five, is that bad? That's precisely what is happening around the world right now.
6) "Excessive wealth." What? You're a virtuous person who makes a lot of money because of his skills and abilities, makes generous charitable donations, behaves honestly in business, loves his fellow man, brings up a good family, and you're going to hell because you have a nice house and a Mercedes? Come on.
7) "Generating poverty." How precisely does one generate poverty? By making irresponsible decisions and flunking out of school, spending all your money on beer and fags, and knocking up three girls by the time you're 19? Any poor bastard who falls into that trap is going to have enough trouble here on earth, and it seems pretty harsh to punish him in the afterlife.

I have a positive view of Christianity in general and the Church in particular. Judeo-Christian ethics are at the heart of human society today. I think the Church does much more good than harm. I also think it is sometimes absolutely full of crap, and this is one of those times.

Final election results: PSOE 169 seats, the PP 153, Convergencia 11, the PNV 6, Esquerra 3, the goddamn Commies 2, CC 2, the BNG 2, CC 2, UPD 1, and NaBai 1.

Regionally, the PSOE was the most-voted party in Asturias, the Basque Country, La Rioja, Aragon, Catalonia, Extremadura, Andalusia, and the Canaries. The PP was most-voted in Galicia, Castile-Leon, Cantabria, Navarre, Madrid, Castile-La Mancha, Valencia, Murcia, and the Balearics.

Looks like what happened is that the Socialists ate IU's and ERC's lunch, while the PP gained scattered seats at the expense of regional parties.

The Catalan press is playing up how important the sweeping Socialist victory in Catalonia was; if Catalan votes were left out, the PP would have won the election. The PSC won 18 seats more than the PP in Catalonia; they won only 16 seats more than the PP in all of Spain.

Commie leader Gaspar Llamazares has already resigned, and Carod-Rovira is expected to be next. Rajoy looks like he's going to try to hang on as leader, claiming victory because the party gained five seats. At the very least he needs to get rid of the hard-right elements in the party leadership, meaning Zaplana and Acebes.

The actual election results look a lot like the surveys El Periodico was running during the week before the elections. The exit polls, as usual, underestimated the PP vote, since being conservative is so socially unacceptable in some places that some people don't admit it.

Spain's definitely made a turn against radical regional nationalist parties. Count it up: in Catalonia, nationalist parties (CiU and ERC) won only 14 seats out of 47. In the Basque Country the nationalists (PNV) won just 6 seats out of 18, with ETA-front party Herri Batasuna banned from the ballot and its supporters boycotting the election, and peaceful separatists EA and Aralar shut out. In Galicia the BNG won only 2 seats out of 23. Only CiU increased its number of seats, by just one.

I'm thrilled that the goddamn Communists damn near got wiped out, down to 2 seats from the 23 they had as recently as 1996.

It looks like I called the effect of the murder of Isaías Carrasco wrong; I figured it would help the PP, but instead it probably had no effect, or even helped the PSOE by increasing the turnout as a whole.

I'm fairly optimistic for the next four years: Zap can't screw things up too badly, and his policies are going to have to be pretty moderate in order to keep his alliance with CiU. I don't see any other way out of it for him; he'll have to either form an official coalition, giving CiU a couple of ministries in Madrid, or govern from the minority with CiU support. And that support won't be forthcoming if he tries to do anything outrageous.

About a year ago, a gentleman living near Mataró, along the coast north of Barcelona, paid a visit to his neighbor's stable, where four horses were kept. He tied one of them up and buggered it, "causing various injuries to its rectum." The horse was discovered "in a state of shock," hyperventilating and with a greatly accelerated heart rate, bleeding from the anus. The gentleman has been charged with felony animal abuse, with the aggravating circumstance of sexual abuse. His trial starts today; he faces a ten-month sentence, which will be suspended, and he'll have to pay the €771 veterinary bill.

What a sick weirdo pervert. Anally raping a horse. This guy clearly needs to be separated from the rest of society for a long time. And he will be, since he's up on further charges, this time for raping a human.

I am truly disgusted by sadists who take pleasure from harming creatures weaker than they are, human or animal, and I would punish them harshly. Get all the pot-smokers and dopers out of jail, and replace them with horse-rapers and women-beaters.

Some guy in Madrid, for example, was convicted of driving down the highway and throwing a litter of kittens out the window, one by one, apparently for the fun of watching them splatter. He was fined €360 for misdemeanor animal abuse. Look, Judge, if he'll do it to a cat, he'll do it to a person as well. Lock his ass up right now and protect the rest of us law-abiding citizens and harmless animals.

By the way, the Chinese are currently conducting a cat holocaust in Peking in preparation for this summer's Olympics; the Daily Mail broke the story yesterday. Just another reason to boycott it; I won't be watching.

My post-election article is up at Pajamas Media, so go read it.

Well, voter participation was 75% and the PSOE won. With 92% of the vote counted, it's the PSOE with 43.8% and 168 seats, and the PP 40.1% and 154 seats. CiU has 10 seats, the PNV 6, IU 3, ERC 3, CC 2, the BNG 2, UPD 1, and NaBai 1.

In Catalonia, it's PSC 25 seats, CiU 10, the PP 7, ERC 3, and ICV 2.

I'll have an article up tomorrow morning at Pajamas Media, so check it out.

With 90% of the vote counted, it's PSOE 167-PP 155, and these results aren't going to change much. Looks like Zap will be able to either cut a deal with CiU or govern from the minority. Now the question is: what's CiU's price going to be? I imagine they'll demand a breakup of the Catalan Tripartite, and that they replace ERC and Communist officeholders at both the municipal and regional level inside Catalonia. The question is whether they'd get that.

The verdict from down at the (Catalan-speaking, pro-Barça) bar is that everyone's happy the PP lost, nobody's real excited about the Socialists, and several people are all pissed off right now, because both Esquerra Republicana and the Barça got their asses kicked.

So the PSOE gains three seats and the PP gains seven over 2004. Rajoy and the leadership are going to try to spin this as a win. It's not.

Spain is getting ever closer to having a real two-party system. The third party at the national level, the United Left, has nearly been wiped out. The moderate nationalist parties in Catalonia and the Basque Country held their ground. The rest of the regional parties did poorly. Esquerra's down from eight seats to three, which means Carod-Rovira is no longer taken seriously by anyone. And Rosa Diez won a seat--does this mean the birth of a centrist third party? Probably not.

Pepe Blanco just claimed victory again, and he signed off with "Good night and good luck," just like Zap. Jesus. This has got to stop now. In case you're wondering where it came from, that movie lionizing Edward R. Murrow was real big among the Illustrated and Enlightened around here.

I'm going to go down to the bar to watch the second half of the Barça-Villarreal game on pay-TV, and while there I will interview the local Catalan working class for their reactions.

With 54% of the vote counted, it's PSOE 171-PP 150. It looks like the count is going to stabilize somewhere around here: both main parties gaining seats, the PSOE more than the PP, and the smaller parties as the big losers. Along with the PP leadership.

With 43% of the vote counted, it's PSOE 169-PP 151. This is starting to look something like the exit polls showed, but it gives the PSOE a bigger win than the surveys were predicting a couple of days ago.

Thoughts off the top of my head:

1) Zap's not going to get an absolute majority, but he's going to be able to govern with the aid of CiU.
2) Whether the PSOE can cut a deal with the PNV is questionable, since the prosecutor's office is trying to put the PNV's leader in jail, and they might not be feeling too friendly.
3) Can Rajoy claim victory if the PP wins more seats than they got in 2004--that is, more than 148? I say no.
3a) Because I think the PP leadership has botched both the message and the way it was communicated over the last four years.
3b) And because I think Zap was a weak candidate who could have been beaten by a competent opposition.

33% of the vote counted: PSOE 170 seats, PP 150.

As usually happens, the official figures change a great deal over the normal election evening: with 30% of the vote counted, it's PSOE 172 seats, PP 144.

With 17% of the vote counted, the official figures are PSOE 173 seats, PP 136. These are, of course, by no means definite.

TV3's exit poll for Catalonia gives the PSC 45.7% of the vote and 24-27 seats; CiU 20.9% and 9-11 seats; the PP 16.3% and 7-8 seats; ERC 8.4% and 3-4 seats; and ICV 3.9% and 1 seat.

Pepe Blanco, the Socialists' organizational secretary (that is, top apparatchik) has claimed victory. The PP is not conceding anything so far; they still think the high turnout in Valencia and Madrid is going to help them out.

So what does it mean? If the surveys are right, and they all seem to agree, then just off the top of my head:

1) Zap has very close to an absolute majority, and he has more of a mandate than he did in his first term.
2) Rajoy will have to step down as PP leader, perhaps not immediately, but they need a new candidate for the next election.
3) The two leading candidates to replace Rajoy have to be Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón and Esperanza Aguirre.
4) I don't think Zap is going to do anything particularly different than he did in his first term.
5) The PP strategy of confrontation obviously did not work.
6) Neither the debates nor the murder of Isaías Carrasco had much effect on the voters.
7) The turnout was nowhere near low enough to help out the PP.
8) The Communists got completely destroyed.
8a) How much you want to bet that most of the Communist voters went over to Zap because they're so angry at the PP?
9) CiU did pretty well, and if Zap gets below about 170 seats, he'll have to cut a deal with them. The PNV did pretty well too, so a good showing by the comparatively moderate regional nationalists.
10) The more radical regional nationalist parties, ERC and the BNG, got stomped.
11) Zap's not going to negotiate with ETA any more no matter what happens.
12) I bet he doesn't keep most of his promises, though he's going to have to carry through on the €400 tax rebate.

All the other TV network surveys have similar figures to TV3's. They have the PSOE between 163 and 178 seats, and the PP between 142 and 152.

The polls in peninsular Spain close at 8 PM (in the Canary Islands at 9 our time), and TV3's exit poll for all of Spain says it looks like a big win for Zapatero. They have the PSOE with 45.0% to 38.6% for the PP. The PSOE would win 172-176 seats, and the PP 148-152. The smaller parties are getting whacked. The Communists drop to only 2-3 seats, and Esquerra wins 4. CiU holds out with 9-11 seats and the PNV gets 6-7. Other parties winning seats: The BNG, CC, Rosa Diez's UPD, and Nafarroa Bai.

We'll see if these results change over the evening; they're likely to. Right now, though, TV3's figures point at a Zapatero able to govern from the minority without needing to form a coalition.

They've announced that the first official results will be released after 9:30. Also, turnout in the Basque Country is very low, seven points below 2004.

TV3 is leading with the report that at 6 PM voter participation in Spain was 61%, two percentage points below the last election in 2004, and that in Catalonia turnout is five points below 2004. This would seem to favor the PP, since Catalonia is a Socialist stronghold.

Looks like the Socialists may have lost some votes to abstention here, probably due to the list of fiascos they've been blamed for around here. People here in Gracia are still mad about the blackout last summer, and they blame the city and regional governments, in Socialist hands.

Turnout in the other Socialist stronghold, Andalusia, is 3.6 points below 2004.

Meanwhile, the regions with turnouts above 2004 are PP territory: Madrid and Valencia.

Here in Catalonia, turnout is especially low in the three outer provinces, which are CiU's home ground, so things don't look good for them.

It's starting to look like turnout will be lower than in 2004; at 5 PM 60.9% of eligible voters had voted, compared to 63.0% in the last election. No problems, fortunately, everything is running smoothly. No incidents (knocks on head) worth mentioning; a few jerks superglued a few locks at polling places. No big deal.

They announced that voter turnout at 2 PM was 40.1% of the total eligible, just below turnout at the same time in 2004. In Catalonia it was 39.3%, and in Andalusia it was under 40% as well. Everyone says a high turnout favors the PSOE, and in 2004 it was an exceptionally high 77% at the end of the day. The regions with the highest turnout so far today are the PP strongholds of Valencia and Murcia, though, both over 45%.

When Remei went to vote she saw Barcelona's Cataloony-Green-Commie first couple, Joan Saura and Imma Mayol, who live on our street and vote at the same polling place.

La Vanguardia says there are seats completely up for grabs in sixteen provinces that may be decided by a few hundred votes or less.

It's Election Day! This is going to be a close one. I'll be following the news all day, and if anything happens I'll post it. They'll announce the results at 9 PM.

El Periódico's last survey, released at midnight, shows a small swing to the PSOE, who would beat the PP 43.4% to 38.1%, with 18.1% for other parties. In seats in Congress, the PSOE is ahead 166-170 to 151-155 for the PP; other parties would get 30-34 seats, with 176 needed for an absolute majority.

The press seems to think that the key will be voter turnout; La Vanguardia calculates that turnout above 72% favors the Socialists, and below that figure favors the PP. The reasoning is that PP voters are more loyal and more likely to come out than PSOE voters.

Regionally, the PP is likely to win Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria, La Rioja, Navarra, Castile-Leon, Madrid, Castile-La Mancha, Madrid, Valencia, Murcia, the Balearics, the Canaries, and Ceuta and Melilla; its biggest vote sources are Madrid and Valencia. The PSOE is favored in Aragon, Catalonia, Extremadura, and Andalusia, with its heartlands in Catalonia and Andalusia. The PNV will probably win in the Basque Country.

Another key to the election: Andalusia is also holding the election for its regional parliament today, which will bring out more voters there than in other regions. This obviously favors the PSOE, since they dominate Andalusia politically.

PSOE and PP representatives got in a very inappropriate argument at the funeral for Isaías Carrasco in Mondragón; regional Socialist leader Patxi López verbally attacked both Mariano Rajoy and PP Basque leader María San Gil.

Meanwhile, the car in which the terrorists escaped the crime scene has not been found. Police suspect the killers are hiding at a safe house in or near Mondragón.

The Times has a long article on the election. Check it out. The Guardian and the AP have articles as well.

Update on the murder of Isaías Carrasco by ETA: Carrasco had just gotten into his car to go to work at 1:30 PM when the ETA gunman fired five shots at him through the windshield, hitting him in the chest with two and in the neck with one. His wife and daughter heard the gunfire and rushed outside as Carrasco got out of his car, stumbled halfway across the street, and fell, still conscious. The gunman, who was tall, wearing a fake beard, and dressed in black, ran to a silver Seat Cordoba in which a getaway driver was waiting, and they escaped. Carrasco died in the hospital less than an hour later.

Carrasco had lost his city council seat in the last municipal election, and had decided to give up his police bodyguard at the end of last year. Most politically active anti-ETA Basques, especially those who hold public office, need official bodyguards.

The mayor of Mondragón, known in Basque as Arrasate, belongs to the ETA-front party ANV; when she arrived at the hospital, Carrasco's wife told her to get lost.

The political parties stopped their campaigning, calling off their final campaign rallies, which were to have been held last night (in Spain all campaigning is prohibited the day before an election, i.e. today). Rajoy managed to sneak in a dig at Zapatero, saying that no matter who won the election, the government would never negotiate with ETA again.

All parties represented in the Congress of Deputies agreed on a joint declaration condemning the murder and promising to maintain a united front against ETA. The PP tried to get the declaration to include a commitment not to negotiate with ETA and a revocation of the 2005 parliamentary resolution in favor of negotiations, but the other parties refused.

I still think the murder of Carrasco politically favors the PP; though of course I wish that terrorist murders had no effect on voter intention, we know they do. Specfically, the murder is going to bring out citizens who were going to abstain, and who will now vote for the PP. I don't think it's going to change the mind of more than a few voters who were already committed to a party, and I don't think it's going to have the effect of the March 11 bombings, but it will have some effect.

El Periódico of Andorra's latest survey (taking advantage of a legal loophole, as surveys are banned in Spain the five days before an election) was released early this afternoon; it has the PSOE ahead of the PP, 43.0%-39.0%, with other parties getting 18.0%. The PSOE would get 162-166 seats in Congress, the PP would get 154-158, and other parties would get 30-34. 176 seats are needed for a majority.

Other news: Looks like there won't be a war in South America, as Chavez and Correa have made nice with Uribe. Despite Chavez's arms purchases from Russia and Spain, the Colombians have a much bigger US-armed and -trained army, with experience fighting the FARC, and would stomp Venezuela's ass if it came to it. Remember when Chavez ordered ten batallions to the frontier last week? None of them ever moved.

The European Union sent its commissioner for the Third World to Cuba yesterday; he got to talk to human slime foreign minister Pérez Roque, Castro's Ribbentrop, and tomorrow he may even get an audience with President Raúl. The EU wants to "break the ice and open the path to relaunch Cuba-EU dialogue...seeking the full normalization of relations." I say the hell with that. Fortunately the British and the Czechs are going to say the hell with it, too.

The Barcelona court investigating the illegal abortions scandal has subpoenaed nearly 3000 medical histories. Women who underwent abortions at the accused clinics testified that they had not been subjected to any medical tests, not even psychological ones; abortion is legal in Spain for medical reasons, but abortion on mere demand is prohibited, unlike in the US. Six people have been charged with illegal abortion, conspiracy, forgery, and practicing medicine without a license.

Of course the ETA murder has forced the rest of the news into the background today.

Zap and Rajoy held their final campaign rallies last night; Spanish law prohibits campaigning on the day before the election, for some reason. It also prohibits the Spanish press from publishing electoral surveys for five days before the election, which is of course absurd.

El Periódico has figured out a way to get around the law; they have an edition published in Andorra, an independent country, and that edition is not subject to Spanish law, so they've put a link to it on their webpage.

Their survey, taken yesterday, has Zap leading with 42.6% of the vote to Rajoy's 38.6%. 18.8% will vote for other parties. This is basically the same result as almost all the other surveys have shown. They have the PSOE with 161-165 seats, about the same as the 164 it won in 2004, and the PP with 153-157 seats, better than the 148 it won in 2004. For the smaller parties, they predict: CiU 8-9 seats, the PNV 6, ERC 5, the Communists 4, and other parties 7-10. 176 seats are needed for a majority in Congress; the PSOE will probably have to govern from the minority, making temporary alliances with smaller parties.

The Barcelona bus strike continues; 17 buses were sabotaged this morning, and militant strikers have been harassing drivers who are not going along with the strike. It's not like these guys are scabs, either, since the two major labor unions, the UGT and CCOO, are opposed to the strike as well. The strikers had a demo yesterday with the university students, who are also "on strike," and took advantage of it to occupy CCOO and UGT headquarters, paint graffiti all over the offices, and attack one of the CCOO officials. We can has jail?

Yeah, the university students are "striking" as well. Who the hell cares whether these wankers go to class or not? They can strike for the rest of their lives as far as I'm concerned. They brought out 5000 demonstrators and snarled up the center of the city, with some help from the bus drivers. They're whining about the European Union's Bologna plan for university education: they say it will lead to "privatization." They're probably afraid someone will make them study, which is just a total bummer.

Update on the ETA murder in Mondragón: The killer was a large man wearing a fake beard and a black leather jacket. Both Zapatero and Rajoy have suspended campaigning, and they will meet this afternoon.

Breaking news: ETA has committed murder again. A gunman shot Miguel Isaias Carrasco, 42, three times in the back of the head at 1:30 this afternoon outside his house in Mondragón, Guipúzcoa province. When he was shot he was accompanied by his wife and daughter. Carrasco had been a Socialist city council member in the town of Arrasate.

Our sympathies and condolences to his family and friends.

ETA must be destroyed. No negotiations with terrorists.

The murder will affect the electoral campaign: Zapatero will be hurt, as his government held secret negotiations with ETA during their so-called truce. The PP will benefit, as it has a much stronger tough-on-ETA record and discourse.

It's a terrible shame that terrorism will affect the result of the election, as it did in 2004.

I have an article up at Pajamas Media on the Spanish general election, so go check it out.

Reports from the Anglosphere press on the Spanish election:

The Independent says Zap is slightly ahead but the electorate is unexcited, in an article datelined today.

Reuters says that the slowing economy hurts Zap's chances. It also has a longer piece by the same reporter from a few days before.

The Times has a leader saying that the economy's bad, but Zap will probably win because the PP's done a poor job.

Newsweek has a long piece saying the economy's going downhill and both candidates are weak.

The Guardian has a piece on the first Zap-Rajoy debate, saying the main issues were the economy and immigration. Here's a profile of Zap, here's one of Rajoy, and here's a question-and-answer on the main issues, all by the same reporter.

Credit Suisse has a business news website; they interview their Spain analyst on the election and the economy.

Dow Jones has a piece on the economy and the election, as well.

The Economist says the candidates are making too many promises.

Here's the Financial Times column that Rajoy cited in the last debate.

The AP accuses the two candidates of bickering.

And, in case anyone's interested, here's the World Socialist Web Site's take.

News from these here parts: Madrid archbishop Rouco Varela defeated incumbent Bilbao archbishop Blazquez in the election for the president of the bishops' conference. Blazquez was elected vice-president. Both are conservative, but Blazquez is considered more friendly toward regional nationalisms. Elections are every three years; Blazquez served only one term, while Rouco has previously served two.

This really shouldn't be particularly big news, but the Church is considered by many people to be very powerful in Spain. I think most people overrate the Church's importance and influence; it's a hangover from the 1940s and 50s, when the Church was part of the coalition that supported the Franco regime. This is one reason why the Spanish Left is so anticlerical, though anticlericalism has been strong in Spain ever since the 19th century.

The Church's greatest source of influence now is their school system, which is partially funded by the state. That, of course, is bullcrap. I'm not anti-religion or anti-Church--I think they do a lot more good than harm--but there ought to be a strict separation between God and Caesar.

Only four more days until the general election. I still think it's going to be very close. The Spanish people seem to be rather disillusioned about the campaign; the general reaction is that Zap and Rajoy are just slagging one another off and making promises that won't be kept. Nobody seems to be very enthusiastic. By the way, Toni Soler in La Vanguardia agreed with me that Rajoy won the debate. So that makes three of us: me and two borderline Cataloonies, Soler and Rahola.

The Great Transport Snafu continues: an electric power line came down across the train tracks in Sant Andreu this morning and three commuter lines are shut down. Power is out in the area, and we don't know when it'll be back up.

The bus drivers' strike continues into its third day. Early this morning strikers sabotaged 17 buses, including stoning one containing passengers in my neighborhood; they broke windows and rear view mirrors, and punctured tires. Fortunately nobody got hurt. I have no idea at all why this shit is tolerated. They're going to snarl up Plaza Catalunya this afternoon with an illegal demo, just to piss off the citizens even more. One arrest has been made: a striker punched a cop in the nose on Monday, and they actually came and took him away. Where I come from, if you attack a cop, the consequences are rather more unpleasant than just getting booked downtown.

And the saga of the African boat people continues, as well. A cayuco washed up on Tenerife after three days at sea, carrying two dead people and 53 who were still alive. The international media is not covering this story at all.

El Pais reports that Pedro Varela, the Nazi owner of a Barcelona bookstore specializing in trash, garbage, and lies, has been sentenced to seven months in prison for Holocaust denial. Since it's a sentence of less than one year, it will be suspended. They acquitted him of "incitement to racial hatred," for some unknown reason. I'm against jailing him, of course, since political speech should not be censored no matter how disgusting it is. You don't win a battle of ideas by silencing the opponent, you win it by letting him make his case and then crushing it with facts and reason.

El Periodico has a story titled, "South America rejects 'preventive war' against FARC." It says that Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and (of course) France are strongly opposed to such a thing. Jesus. How exactly is it a 'preventive war' when the elected government tries to wipe out a gang of murdering terrorist kidnappers and dope dealers? They add that 1) Venezuela and Ecuador have rearmed 2) they're both trying to destabilize the Uribe government 3) Chavez has been subsidizing the FARC 4) If there's a war, it'll be America's fault.

Good news for the Republicans: McCain has locked up the nomination and Huckabee has withdrawn from the race. Better news: Hillary beat Obama in Texas and Ohio, and there's going to be six more weeks of internecine Democratic war until the Pennsylvania primary. I think the Democrats are going to blow this election. I also think Obama has peaked way too early, and that his schtick will get old long before November. This is getting plenty of coverage in Spain.

Quick debate post-mortem: The Spanish press generally didn't agree with my verdict that Rajoy was the clear winner. Their surveys pretty much came out the same as they did after the first debate, which means that not many minds were changed. The only one of La Vanguardia's commentators who gave Rajoy a win was, of all people, Pilar Rahola.

Round Five: The future.

Zap brings up education again, which I would not do. Wants to spend more money on it. Promises everyone will learn English and that he'll send kids to England with scholarships. Rajoy says the educational system sucks and it's Zap's fault because he overturned the PP's educational policy. Accuses Zap of being full of hot air about English. Says kids move up without passing their courses and that teachers get no respect. Says Zap talks about ethics classes while forgetting about technology. Blasts Zap on housing real quick. Zap says it's not fair to compare Spain with other countries because we started out less developed. Now he says let's spend more money. Accuses Rajoy of allowing land prices to go up 500%. Talks about building more public housing. Zap really is talking tax and spend, tax and spend.

Rajoy on the attack again, on housing prices once more. He is staying on message very well. Zap looks negative and angry; he's looking down and frowning. Rajoy's graphs are a lot better. He sure calls Zap a liar an awful lot. Back to education. Says Zap's done nothing. Zap on public housing again, now back to education, saying we're behind because we were poor and now we're catching up. If we spend more money. Takes credit for increase of Internet use. Renewable energy. Stem cell research. Rajoy smacks him one, saying we're behind Estonia in education too. Says Zap talks big and does nothing. Repeats that Zap has taken credit for PP projects. Rajoy wants more demanding school system, says he's willing to spend more but wants results.

Zap goes to climate change, wants to use alternative energy. Promises lots more water for everyone. Rajoy slams Zap for spending less on infrastructure. Now he's back to the damn water plan. Says Zap's done nothing.

Round five to Rajoy. He's organized, Zap is not, and Zap's on the defense.

Closing speech: Zap thanks Spanish people. He's committed to putting an end to all discrimination, especially against women, and he wants sustainable development. He's committed to defending peace and respecting diversity. He will govern with sensitivity. Oh, God, he said "Good night and good luck" again. Rajoy: Realism and unity and consensus. Says he wants everyone to be equal, all citizens must be equal. ETA must be defeated. Wants to spend more on health care. Overusing word "capital," meaning very important. Social programs important, but economy is more so because no economy, no social spending. Spain must be unified. Goes back to his dumb example from last debate about the little girl who he wants to govern for. Minus one point for that.

Verdict: Zap goes the distance but it's a unanimous decision to Rajoy. Zap took several hard punches, but no single knockout blow. This debate will convince some of the undecided, but probably won't bring over anybody committed.

Round Four: "Institutional policy."

Zap starts off, saying that regional inequalities have declined. His graphs are hard to see. He's going to build lots of freeways. Cooperation and dialogue. Gender violence, health care, education. Rajoy goes back to the first question in Congress. He should drop that. Rajoy says Zap is taking credit for things the PP did, and he's on the damn water plan again. The Catalan statute and negotiating with ETA were Zap's two big mistakes. Says Zap radicalized regional nationalist parties.

Zap's trying to go back to building train lines and freeways. Talks about consensus and cooperation. Says the PSOE is always willing to negotiate. He's against attacking any Spanish region. Rajoy: Your clownishness is a greater aggression to Catalonia than my words. You didn't start any projects, you're taking credit for ours. You have a problem in Catalonia with Esquerra. Reads a letter on discrimination against Spanish speakers. Zap's talking about his subsidies to Andalusia, now says Rajoy pits citizens against one another. Zap is appealing to his two big vote bases, Andalusia and Catalonia. Zap is trying to nail down the rest of the country. Zap calls Rajoy two-faced and opportunistic.

Rajoy: Zap supports fines for people who get caught putting up signs in Spanish. Wants kids to study Spanish in schools. Now he's calling Zap wishy-washy on the Catalan statute, said Zap lied to Mas. Zap accuses Rajoy of pitting Catalans against other Spaniards again. Rajoy now in favor of dialogue that includes everybody. Says the regions are important but so is the central government.

Round four to Rajoy. It's not a knockout yet but he's winning clearly.

Round three: Security and foreign policy.

Zap starts off, says PSOE will support any party in antiterrorist struggle. Zap's looking around for his stats, he's not prepared. Says Spain's crime rate is low, which is true, and that he'll hire more cops and fight domestic violence and drugs in schools. Zap is lousy at being specific. Rajoy says he'll support any government that doesn't negotiate with terrorists. Blasts Zap's ETA policy, claims he lied to Rajoy himself, the congress and the people. Says Zap didn't consult with anybody.

Zap's mad. Of course he's on the Iraq war, says pulling out troops was his first decision. He promises no soldiers will leave Spain for an illegal war. Rajoy's got Zap in a contradiction, quoting him saying that an Iraq pullout would cause a disaster in 2003. Rajoy on attack, saying Zap forgot Lebanon and Afghanistan, Zap's interrupting him. Zap is really mad. Rajoy's interrupting him now. Zap mentioned March 11, now he's getting personal. Rajoy: What we did after March 11 was arrest the perpetrators. He's back on it: You lied to the Spanish people about the PCTV, De Juana Chaos, Otegi, the T-4 bombing. Liar, liar, pants on fire.

Zap: I never lied. You are guilty of misleading the people about who did the March 11 bombing. Rajoy: You kept negotiating with ETA after promising you wouldn't.

Round Three is a draw. Both sides landed blows. So far Rajoy is winning pretty solidly.

Second round: Social policy.

Zap talks about law financing care of dependents, something his government did pass that I support. More promises about day care and the like. Rajoy's ironic, says there was no dependent care or education before Zap, says his daycare stuff is bogus. Rajoy says good economy is necessary for social programs. Now he's pounding on immigration and Zap's amnesty. Rajoy is going for the knockout, he's attacking, and he's repeating his points well. Here goes Zap again about Rajoy's first question in Congress. This time Rajoy's interrupting Zap, rather than vice versa like last time. Zap's talking about arriving at agreements among employers and unions and social dialogue. He wants to reduce labor accidents and create lots of new jobs.

Here goes Rajoy on immigration--says Zap consulted with nobody. He's on message. Repeating words "order and control." Rajoy's in favor of the dependents law too and wants women working outside the home too. Accuses Zap of not knowing his facts. Now education, kids have no respect and learn nothing. Keeps repeating Zap is causing problems for the citizens. Zap says he will fight illegal immigration. Doesn't seem like he's done much about it. Claims illegals are being repatriated. Says he's spending billions of euros integrating them, which is a hanging curveball. Rajoy: Kick out criminals and no more amnesties. Suggests a guest-worker program.

Rajoy's lowered the boom: he's got a quote from Zap four years ago saying the immigration situation was intolerable then. Zap says PP legalized one million immigrants in eight years. Rajoy comes back saying that immigrants got amnistied with a deportation order as proof of residence. Zap is looking angry and nervous. Rajoy quotes the EU saying Zap's immigration program sucks.

Second round to Rajoy.

Time for the big debate. We're all sitting on the edges of our seats. Remei is pissed off because she wants to watch "CSI." I took a pee and got a beer. This one will follow the same format as the last one, except this time Zap gets first crack.

Zap starts. He's going to continue having the economy grow, though he doesn't explain how. Sustainable development, against world poverty and climate change. Lots of big words and little content. Everyone will have more rights and Spain will be united. He wants a debate of ideas and proposals--his research shows that the sniping in the last debate didn't go over well, I guess.

Rajoy's going to talk about the future too. He's on the attack now. He's against unemployment and inflation. He looks tougher and more confident than last time. "You're not better off than four years ago." Now on to immigration. Order and control. Mildly xenophobic. Blasts separatists, Catalan statute. Educational system sucks, crime rising, housing prices up. Zap negotiated with ETA.

Intro statement to Rajoy.

Round one: The economy.

Zap blames the world economy, says he's going to raise spending, public housing, jobs for unemployed construction workers. He's going through all his promises. This isn't going that well, we've heard it before. Attacks Rajoy for alarmism. Rajoy comes back: Real per capita income down. Inflation is bad. Rajoy quotes the increases in price of milk, etc. This must have gone over well last time. Rajoy quotes the Financial Times saying the economy is crashing. Zap claims that Spain's passed Italy again. Accuses Rajoy of demagoguery with inflation. Now he's quoting some stats of his own.

Rajoy says Zap has no plans to fight inflation. This time he's got some good graphs and is showing them to the camera correctly: prices up, unemployment up. Accuses Zap of doing nothing, entertaining himself with Alliance of Civs, historical memory law. Zap promises more jobs, especially for women, and higher pensions. Will raise minimum wage 30 percent. Doesn't explain where money is coming from. Zap talked about the distribution of wealth again, and Rajoy's saying under Zap difference between rich and poor increased. He promises to cut taxes, income and corporate income tax, reduce bureaucracy. Now Zap's arguing about the first question Rajoy asked him again, this won't go over. Rajoy says Zap ignored the economy and lived off the PP govt's good results. Now he's whacked Zap on Endesa.

First round to Rajoy.

Quick update: Tonight's the second round of the Great Zap-Rajoy Debates, and we'll be liveblogging it again. I promise not to get bored and blow it off like I did with the Catalan debate. Rajoy has to go for the knockout tonight, so it should be interesting.

La Vanguardia has a survey out today taken in the days after the first debate, and they've got the PSOE leading the PP 43.5%-39.5%. The PSOE would get 162-167 seats, and the PP would get 152-156, with 176 needed for an absolute majority. They have CiU with 8-9 seats, the PNV with 6-7, ERC with 6, and the Communists with 4-5. This election could go either way.

The bus drivers' strike is on again as of today. The "pickets" tried to block the buses providing the obligatory minimum service from leaving the Sant Andreu bus garage, and the cops charged them and one cop was injured. Last night six city buses were vandalized by strikers who smashed windows and punctured tires; no passengers were hurt, fortunately. The strikers also super-glued the locks at fourteen Metro stations last night, but employees were able to open up the stations without much delay. No arrests were made.

It really pisses me off when strikers behave like they're above the law. You can strike, you can carry signs, you can get a permit and have a demo, that's all within your rights. But you can't vandalize city property or block traffic or put citizens in danger or fight with the cops, and if you do the law ought to come down on your ass.

That idiot Chavez and his buttboy Correa are going to start a war and it's going to get ugly and the Illustrated and Enlightened around here are going to blame the Americans.

Here in Gracia it's Sant Medir's day, whoever he was. There are clubs that get all dressed up and have parades on horseback, throwing candy to the kids. It's a nice tradition, going back to the 19th century. I especially like the horses. The only problem is that the streets end up covered in horse poop and squished candy, which is not too horrible since it's only once a year.

The Ertzaintza, the Basque regional police, arrested two of the etarras on the most wanted list; they were apparently part of ETA's shelter apparatus, hiding out other etarras on the run. Good. Keep the pressure on these bastards.

Duran Lleida isn't campaigning today either. Hope he's OK.

El Pais has an election survey out today, giving the PSOE 42.9% of the vote and 165-169 seats, and the PP 38.8% and 148-154 seats. Neither party would have an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies, where 176 seats are needed. The Communists would get only four seats. CiU would get 9 seats, ERC 5-6, the PNV 7, and Coalition Canaria 2-3. According to these figures, the PSOE will probably be able to form a government with CiU.

One caveat: The survey was taken between Feb. 8 and 27, so some of the results are a month old, and almost all of them are pre-debate.

Prediction: It'll be closer than this, because of the hidden PP vote: it's so socially unacceptable in some places to admit, even to a pollster, that you are a conservative, that people lie about it. Besides, Zap is not very popular, and though he has the incumbent's advantage, Rajoy has another week to campaign and another chance at a knockout blow in the second debate.

Backing up my presentiment is an ABC survey, which gives the PSOE a 42%-40% lead over the PP, though it does not go into the distribution of seats in Congress. Their survey was taken over the past week. ABC, a generally pro-PP newspaper, says 1) inflation and unemployment have angered many voters 2) 80% of those who voted PP in 2004 will do the same, while the figure is only 68% for the PSOE 3) it appears that late deciders are trending PP 4) turnout is expected to be 70%, six points lower than in 2004, which favors the PP since its voters are more loyal 5) the most important issues to the voters are: the economic crisis, unemployment, terrorism, immigration, and housing. The PSOE is vulnerable on all these issues.

Campaign promises: Rajoy said he'd exempt people earning less than €16,000 a year from all income taxes. Zap said the damn water plan was dead and buried.

I suppose you saw that the crazy French actress who won the Academy Award gave an interview saying that 9-11 was a government plot and that the moon landing was faked. I don't think she's all that beautiful, either. In contrast, Angelina Jolie went to Iraq and said some very sensible things, and Bob Geldof again praised the Bush administration's commitment to Africa. By the way, they interviewed Tom Hanks over here a couple of weeks ago, and the interviewer tried to get him to spout off about politics; Hanks didn't take the bait, and said he was concerned about education and health care.

The media agreed with me about the dull Catalan debate last night; El Periodico headlined "Debate nulo," more or less "Useless debate." Nobody said anything interesting. The only occurrence of note is that Duran Lleida started out looking very strange, and at halftime he put on a sweater because he was getting chills. They've cancelled his campaigning for today "for medical reasons." He had surgery on February 12 to remove a tumor from one of his lungs, and I'm afraid there's something really wrong with him. It's a shame, because he's a decent guy and a real professional.

Campaign promise update: The PP will raise monthly state retirement pensions by €150 a month. The PSOE will raise them by €200 a month. The Communists will increase the minimum to €900 a month.

Meanwhile, Zap accused Rajoy of stirring up anti-immigrant xenophobia, and Rajoy promised to revive the damn water plan again.

In February 161 people died in traffic accidents in Spain.

Idiots department: The pro-ETA teenage punks in Bilbao torched two ticket-canceling machines in a commuter train station last night, and set up barricades and stoned a city bus this morning. No arrests were made. Meanwhile, last night in Madrid a handful of Fascists had a legal demo, so the squatters and their ilk came out to break it up and got into it with the cops, setting up flaming barricades and tossing bricks at them. No arrests were made. And this afternoon the Fascists had another legal demo in San Sebastian and the ETA punks tried to break it up, stoning a bus, setting up barricades, and fighting with the cops, who charged them and arrested two.

The US State Department has come out with a report identifying Spain as the biggest drug emporium in the world. It's the highway for cocaine entering the EU from Latin America and hashish coming in from Morocco. 3% of Spaniards use cocaine regularly; one in five European coke users is Spanish. Spain has a higher percentage of users of not only cocaine, but also hash and designer drugs, than any other European country. Surprisingly, only three or four of the comments at La Vanguardia are along the lines of "I don't believe anything those lying gringos say, and besides the CIA controls all drug trafficking anyway."

The answer to the problem, of course, is to legalize recreational drugs. Then you could a) tax them b) make sure the product is not adulterated c) allow sales only to adults and d) drive the drug gangs out of business. The United States's War on Drugs is the most wrong-headed policy that our government has.

Great news: Barcelona is going to license 130 small bars to put on live musical shows. About the only thing I don't like about Barcelona's nightlife offerings is the lack of live music, and now there's going to be a lot more. Ridiculous news: The city government is going to subsidize said bars with €600,000 of the taxpayers' money so that they can meet the soundproofing requirements. Just what we need. Government-subsidized bars. Only in Spain.

Sorry about not posting on the Catalan debate. I watched like ten minutes of it and said, hell, this is really boring, screw it.

Strange Maps is a really cool website. They have one up today on the relative prominence of the names of states that appear in country music songs. As you might have guessed, the big two are Tennessee and Texas.

The Iraqis are going to hang Chemical Ali. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy. If I were the hangman I'd set the drop for about fifteen feet.

The Prince Harry in Afghanistan story is being played up big here. As a good American, I'm a republican with a small r, though there are many systems of government much more obnoxious than democratic constitutional monarchies. Still, I have to give the guy some credit, since he didn't have to go out there if he didn't want to; he's shown an admirable sense of duty. Now that his presence is known, of course, they're going to have to pull him out, since he's now the Taliban and Al Qaeda's number one target, a magnet for terrorist attacks.

ETA set off a small bomb--three kilos of amonal--last night at Socialist headquarters in the Bilbao suburb of Derio; material damage was done, but fortunately no one got hurt.

The five leading candidates on each party's list for Barcelona (Carmen Chacon of the PSC, Josep Antoni Duran Lleida for CiU, Joan Ridao of ERC, Dolors Nadal of the PP, and Joan Herrera of ICV) are going to debate tonight on TV3 at 10 PM; I'll try to blog at least some of it.

Socialist former prime minister Felipe Gonzalez called Rajoy "a lazy imbecile." I never cease to be amazed by the things Spanish politicians call one another. During the first Zap-Rajoy debate they called one another liars about twenty times, and on the stump they accuse one another of being unpatriotic patsies of terrorists or reactionary anti-democratic Fascists. American politics can get pretty nasty, but Bush and Obama and McCain and Kerry don't talk like that. One reason they don't talk like that is that they accept that their opponent is basically honest and operating in good faith.

Inflation for the year ending in February was 4.4%. La Vanguardia ran a list of economic statistics: Unemployment is 8.6%. The trade deficit is €22.2 billion. 2007 GDP was €1.05 trillion, or about $1.6 trillion; the national debt is €379 billion, or 32.6% of GDP. The 2007 budget surplus was 2.2%.

Meanwhile, Spanish stock market heavyweight Telefonica was the most profitable telecoms operator in the world last year, with total profits above €9 billion.

Spain's highways are the most dangerous in Western Europe, with 7 deaths per billion vehicle-kilometers traveled. That's worse than everybody but Hungary and Slovenia, at over 8 deaths / bn. vehicle-km. The rest of the list: Portugal 7; Italy and Czech Republic 6; Belgium and Norway 5; Austria 4; Israel, Finland, Germany, and Ireland 3; France, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Netherlands, and Sweden 2. That's right, our roads are three-and-a-half times as dangerous as England's.

Water is becoming an issue, with the long drought and the ban on lawn-watering, car-washing, and pool-refilling. Now they're reporting that the equivalent of 8% of Barcelona's daily water use is wasted through leaks in the system. La Vanguardia is mad at the Montilla administration for not having bothered to do anything about this until they had to contract out for water to be brought in by tanker. Meanwhile, Rajoy has brought up the damn water plan again as a campaign issue. He says if he gets elected there will be enough water for everybody. Yeah, well, if I get elected there will be free beer for everybody.

The damn bus drivers are going out on strike all next week, thereby snarling up the city the week before the general election. The municipal bus company says that meeting the strikers' demands would cost €35 million a year, and the only way they can get those funds is by tapping into tax money or raising ticket prices.

La Vanguardia has given pages three and four of their international section to Alarmist Andy Robinson again. Andy's all worked up over the Arctic ice melting, and charges that the evil oil companies are behind it because it'll be easier to drill for petroleum if there's not any ice. He says, "This new struggle for energy resources is reminiscent of the infamous struggle for Africa in the 19th century." Uh, Andy, the problem with Africa is that there were already people living there who were brought under European control against their will. How many people live on the Arctic pack ice?

Weird verdict from the National Court. 30 Islamists were charged in 2004 with planning to truck-bomb, guess what, the National Court building. They were acquitted on insufficient evidence of conspiring to blow up the Court, but 20 of them were convicted on charges of belonging to a terrorist organization.

There's really very little lethal violence in Spain, despite the high property crime rate. Murders are unusual, and in a country of 45 million people, any murder story is news in every Spanish media outlet. Compare that with the US, where if you live in Kansas City you only hear about your local murder cases. A large percentage of murders in Spain are domestic violence, and that means men killing women most of the time. The media has dubbed it "sexist violence," which I'm not sure I agree with. From what I've read and seen, violent people, the great majority of whom are men, will attack anybody around them who's weaker than they are, whether a man, a woman, or a child.

So we had four domestic murders on the same day yesterday, in Madrid, Valencia, Cadiz, and Valladolid. That's very unusual. In every case, the man involved had a long record of violence.

The type of murder that is increasing in Spain is gang killings, normally in fighting between Latin American gangs. This didn't exist in Spain until about five years ago. Over the weekend a young Venezuelan was stabbed to death in Rubí in a gang fight; every weekend a couple of gang-bangers wind up in the hospital, lucky to still be alive. There are also occasional organized-crime killings, not as many as you would think, what with the Eastern European crime syndicates moving in.

The African boat people continue to arrive: 130 reached Tenerife today. We have no idea of how many boat people die en route, but some estimates say that for every one who arrives, one dies at sea of hunger, thirst, exposure, or drowning.

The European Commission hit Microsoft with an €899 million fine ($1.35 billion: the euro hit $1.50 today), for antitrust violations. Seems they ruled back in 2004 that Microsoft had to share information about how to make other operating systems work together with Microsoft systems, and Microsoft failed to comply. Good. Fine 'em till it hurts enough to make them change their practices. Monopolies interfere with market freedom just as much as excessive regulation does.

The Bank of Spain, meanwhile, issued another warning about an economic slowdown, with household spending, consumer confidence, new car registrations, new employee contracts, and housing starts all way down. It blames "tension in the international financial markets."

Barcelona is the fifth most visited city in Europe, after London, Paris, Rome, and Madrid. The three top tourist nationalities are the British, the Italians, and the Americans; Americans are about tenth in the rankings of tourists in all of Spain. When they come over here, though, it's mostly for cultural tourism, rather than hitting the beaches and the discos, since we have those at home. So the Yanks go to the big cities and not the beach towns, as all the Germans and Dutch do. This is mostly because the Americans who come to Europe are middle-class, well-paid college graduates--traveling to Europe is expensive, and you don't do it unless you know enough to want to see something different from America.

Tourism is what Barcelona lives on, folks. Get used to it, because there's going to be more. I find it interesting that some of the people who bitch about all the tourists, and some of the people who want more airline flights and trade fairs and hotel rooms, are one and the same.

Campaign update: Both sides are still trying to spin the debate, as expected. No new promises so far today.

The Spanish media is still having a national orgasm over Javier Bardem's and Pau Gasol's successes in the United States. Geez, guys, Bardem won best supporting actor and Gasol is the third best player on his team. National pride is nice, but let's not overdo it, OK?

Sports update: Barcelona, on a hot streak, plays slumpìng Valencia tonignt at home in the first leg of the Cup semifinals. Ronaldinho will be on the bench; they're saving him for the League and the Champions.

The Drudge Report story on the Clinton campaign's spreading a photo of Obama in native African dress in Kenya, supposedly to make voters think he's a Muslim, has hit the news big in Spain. Since there's an image involved, a photograph, Spaniards can relate to it much better than they can to just plain old words. Remember, Europeans judge us on images for many reasons; one is that their journalists aren't familiar with American history and culture, and another is that said journalists don't really know English that well.

Zap has a new promise: the state will fund a day-care center for children under three at any workplace where six or more people request it.

There's a new study saying that anti-depressants don't work any better than placebos; I'm pretty sure that they do in my case.

Spain's high-school dropout rate is 30%, second worst in the European Union after Portugal. The Socialist education program places all the kids (some of whom would formerly either have left school at 14 or gone on to vocational schools) in academic high schools. So they're mixing the ones who want to be there with the ones who don't, and that's a recipe for disaster. No wonder nearly a third of them drop out.

Go back to the old elitist way. Let them drop out at 14 if they want to, and reduce the working age to 14 for at least some jobs. Of course, provide vocational-technical schools for the non-academic people who actually want to get some useful skills. And leave the academic high schools to potential university students. Everyone will be much happier.

Average Spanish household expenses rose by 6.3% in 2007 to nearly €4000. Inflation is hitting the voters in the pocketbook, and Rajoy is right to stress it in his campaign.

Second house prices look to be well on their way to crashing and burning in Spain; there are reports that real estate prices are down 30% in Spain's Mediterranean beach towns, and it's still hard to find buyers.

Al Qaeda claimed responsibility for the murders of eight Spanish tourists last year in Yemen. Nobody is surprised.

Debate post-mortem: The Spanish press is emphasizing that nobody said anything new and that both sides were on the attack. La Vanguardia's reporter agrees with me: he thinks Rajoy won on points but didn't deliver the necessary knockout. Everybody pretty much agrees on the hot buttons that both tried to push repeatedly: Zap the March 11 bombing, the Iraq war, social spending, and the PP's aggressive anti-Zap campaigning, and Rajoy inflation, housing, immigration, the Catalan statute, and Zap's negotiations with ETA.

More than 13 million people watched the debate; it drew a 59% audience share.

The scientifically-done surveys all gave Zap a solid but not overwhelming victory: Antena 3 had Zap 45%-Rajoy 39%, Tele 5 had Zap 50%-Rajoy 34%, Cuatro had Zap 45%-Rajoy 33%, and La Sexta had Zap 46%-Rajoy 31%. El Pais's survey was the closest, Zap 46%-Rajoy 42%.

El Pais also gave what was for me a surprising gender breakdown: Men said Zap won, 64%-36%, while women gave Zap a much closer 52%-48% victory. That's the opposite of the American pattern, where men are considerably more conservative than women.

One thing to keep in mind is that everybody who said Rajoy won will vote for the PP, while some of the people who said Zap won will vote for the Communists or a regional nationalist party.

The self-selected, non-scientific polls done by the newspaper websites pretty much reflect the political makeup of each paper's readers.

El Mundo has Rajoy 61%-Zap 39%; ABC has Rajoy 52%-Zap 48%; and La Razon has Rajoy 61%-Zap 39%. Meanwhile, El Pais has Zap 57%-Rajoy 36%; La Vanguardia has Zap 62%-Rajoy 35%; and El Periodico has Zap 74%-Rajoy 26%. The figures from the two Catalan papers show how unpopular Rajoy and the PP are in Catalonia.

Prediction: This debate won't affect voter intention too much, since neither candidate scored a knockout blow. I don't think either of them convinced anyone who wasn't already backing him. I'm still guessing that the PP is going to do better than expected in the ballot boxes, but Rajoy is going to need a clear win in the next debate, along with some solid campaigning.

Round Five: The future.

Rajoy: Biggest challenge to Spain is globalization. Housing biggest individual challenge to Spaniards, because house prices have risen so much under Zap. Socialists have done nothing useful, their Ministry of Housing is a joke. Zap says he has built more subsidized housing, but the real challenge is education and research. He shouldn't have mentioned that. He keeps talking up government spending a lot, bragging about subsidies.

Rajoy comes back pounding on inflation and the increase in housing prices. He's turned the debate to what he wants to talk about. Now he's slamming Zap on the lousy state of education, kids who should fail passing and lack of discipline and bad test scores. Zap's gone back to the number of scholarships he's funded. Now he's brought up climate change. Seems emissions went up under the PP. He wants to subsidize alternative energy.

Rajoy's gone back to housing prices. He said the PP ratified the Kyoto protocol and that Zap can't keep emissions down, either. Now he's blaming Zap for forest fires. Zap's come back with more climate change and he's trying to talk up his education policy again, which I wouldn't do. He bashed Rajoy for bashing the PSOE's pet performers. Rajoy's gone after Zap for neglecting the victims of terrorism, and he's gone after him for insulting PP voters. Zap's comeback: You insulted Serrat first, and Javier Bardem is a lefty.

Round Five to Rajoy on points.

Closing statements: Rajoy's is memorized. He's sounding a little Obamaish, "hope, all together, etc." He's for families and employment, as well as freedom and pride in being Spanish. "We can do it if you want us to walk together." Zap's is too. He's mentioned Iraq again, more pensions, higher minimum wage, and he promises equality between men and women and full employment. Peace yes, illegal wars no. Oh, God, he closed out with "Good night and good luck": loses points for that.

Closing statement to Zap, just barely.

Overall evaluation: Rajoy gets the win, but it wasn't anywhere near a knockout, which is what he needed.

Round Four: "Institutional policy": regional nationalisms and the like. Rajoy is starting off on the Spanish nationalist flank, saying that Zap has pitted communities against one another. Attacks the Catalan statute. Says that all Spaniards should have the same rights. Zap says it wasn't us, it was you, who caused the interregional strife. Zap's attacking the old PP water plan for some reason. Now Zap's defending the Catalan statute, which won't play in Toledo.

Rajoy said kids in Catalonia can't study in Spanish, always a vote getter. He's back on the damn water plan, and now he's accusing Zap of dividing the Spaniards again. "You have no idea of what Spain is." He quotes several Socialist leaders on this. Geez. Now Zap's on the water plan again. He's trying to defend the Catalan statute again; if I were him I wouldn't mention that. Rajoy's bashing the statute now. And now he's brought up the Catalan Tripartite alliance and the Pact del Tinell, the anti-PP alliance in Catalonia.

Zap: You're the ones causing discord and strife, saying Spain is breaking up. He's trying to appeal to the Socialist base in Andalusia and Catalonia, talking up those statutes. "We like dialogue and democracy," implying the PP doesn't. Rajoy's comeback: You're the antidemocratic ones, trying to shut us out. Zap: We're pluralist, you're not.

Round Four to Rajoy on points.

Round Three: Crime and terrorism. Rajoy is all over Zap on negotiations with ETA. He says the PP didn't do so while they were in power. Zap brought up 3-11 and said that his government had reduced the number of terrorism deaths. He claims he never used terrorism as a political issue and called Rajoy immoral. He's back on March 11, rubbing in the PP's great error. Now Rajoy's on the defensive and he's angry. He's brushed off 3-11 and is back on ETA, saying Zap is wishy-washy and has let the terrorists blackmail him.

Zap's back on 3-11 again, using very strong words, saying the PP had lied to the people. Rajoy's pounding on ETA and made the mistake of referring to 3-11 himself. He says he could not support Zap's antiterrorist policy and that Zap had repeatedly lied both to him, personally, and to the citizens. Zap's talking numbers, saying he had hired more police, and he keeps bringing up March 11. Zap's attacking Rajoy on foreign policy: "You sent troops to Bush's war." Rajoy: You want them to vote for you over the same things as before, Bush, 3-11, Iraq. Should not have said that. "You, Castro, and Chavez, that's your foreign policy." Zap says now Spain's image is one of peace, solidarity, and cooperation.

Round Three to Zap, who landed a couple of punches.

Round two: Social problems. Rajoy says the problem is the immigrants using public services. More stats. Spain takes more immigrants than anyone but the US. He's slammed Zap for his illegal immigrant amnesty. Zap's comeback: He says he's created more scholarships, has passed a law on gender equality and one subsidizing families with dependents, has raised pensions and the minimum wage, is subsidizing apartments for young people.

Rajoy's not going to give up on immigration, and he's accused Zap about lying on the scholarship thing. Rajoy: Order and control. Zap: You don't care about social problems. The PSOE is the party of individual rights, divorce, etc. He mentioned abortion, not a good move. Rajoy: The PSOE overturned our education law and now the system sucks, and we did increase pensions. Zap's interrupting him, doesn't look good. Now he's blaming the PP for immigration, saying their policies forced him into the amnesty. Rajoy: You failed on immigration and education. He's attacking Zap on the historical memory law and the Alliance of Civilizations. Zap fired back saying Rajoy was heartless.

Round Two to Rajoy on points. He's got Zap on the defensive.

Time for the big debate. How exciting.

Rajoy is taller than Zap. He's also got a phony smile that he's not very good at; he really isn't a handsome man. He's gone with the red tie and the blue suit, while Zap's gone with the blue tie and the gray suit.

The moderator is droning on and on in that ineffably Spanish way of using lots of large words to say nothing. Here we go, finally. Rajoy started off his opening statement; it's memorized. He's going straignt on the attack: the economy, housing, immigration, and took a whack at Zap's antiterrorist record, saying he'd negotiated with ETA on his own.

Zap's opening up now, claiming that he's done a hell of a job, so good that Spain's economy is bigger than Italy's, which it isn't. He slammed the PP's job in the opposition, saying Rajoy had attacked him personally and had used terrorism for political reasons.

Topic number one: the economy and jobs. Rajoy's quoting stats--boring. Now he's hammering on inflation and unemployment, which have increased under the Zap regime. It's a good argument. Zap's comeback: Growth and job creation are up, and the economic slowdown isn't his fault, but he's on the defensive. He used the words "redistribute wealth," not a good sign. Now he's taken credit for the budget surplus, which is fair enough.

Zap slammed him for using ETA politically again. Rajoy had a chart he used badly. He's got more stats, which aren't going to go over well. Now he's on the trade deficit. Zap's attacking the PP's record during its time in office, not a great idea, and he's got his own charts. He let loose a good low blow, blaming the PP for the alleged "price roundup" during the transition to the euro, which didn't happen.

Rajoy's now slamming the PSOE's record under Gonzalez, when unemployment was 22%. And he is leaning very hard on inflation. Zap's response: It's the fault of the world economy. He's attacked the PP's liberalization of the labor market way back when. Now he's talking about his four hundred euro tax, and saying Bush did the same thing; Rajoy's come back saying he never thought Zap would praise Bush. Inflation, inflation, inflation. Zap's talking about growth, growth, growth.

First round to Rajoy on points.

So tonight's the first big Zap-Rajoy debate, and Iberian Notes will be liveblogging it from its comfortable sofa while trying to keep various cats from sitting on its keyboard. I'm betting on Rajoy.

The big front-page story in every Spanish paper is that Mr. Limousine Communist, Javier Bardem, won the best supporting actor at the Academy Awards. Just another sign of Spain's superiority-inferiority complex regarding the US: Bardem never shuts up about how much he hates America, but he's thrilled to get American recognition. And the same with the Spanish papers, which are vicariously enjoying Bardem's success as if it were theirs, too.

By the way, he pussed out and failed to call Bush a mass murderer during his acceptance speech.

Get this. They had to close down the maternity ward at the Josep Trueta hospital in Girona because of a respiratory virus going around that has affected at least three newborns. The National Health, which I had always had a good opinion of, has suffered an alarming drop in quality.

Speaking of incompetence, they had two sinkholes open up in the middle of a street in the Zona Franca, where they're tunnelling out the future metro line 9, and traffic's going to be screwed up there for the rest of the week. Good thing nobody was killed. Somebody has been doing an incredibly lame-ass job on research into Barcelona's subsoil, since they've had multiple cave-ins on the metro expansion, the commuter train system, and the AVE.

Spain is again Europe's most visited country, leading the EU 27 in total overnight stays in hotels. Tourism is our bread and butter, people, whether we like it or not. Spain is never going to be anybody's R&D headquarters, or the home of quality manufacturing, or a hotbed of globalized trade. It's Europe's Florida, and Florida is doing quite well, thank you.

So the Guardia Civil busted nine more Internet kiddie porn perverts. Jesus. Which sewer do all these sickos crawl out of?

On Saturday the ETA tried to assassinate some police officers; they planted a bomb with five kilos of cloratite at a TV transmitter near Bilbao, and called the cops. The bomb was set to explode when first touched, and fortunately they used a robot to approach it rather than a person, so nobody got killed.

Latest campaign promise: Economics minister Pedro Solbes says the government will take care of getting people's mortgages extended so their monthly payments will be lower, at no charge to anybody but the taxpayers.

Some guy got pulled over by the cops in Santander on Saturday night; he tried to get away, and nearly ran over the arresting officers, who pulled a gun and made him stop. He tested positive for methamphetamines, amphetamines, ecstasy, cocaine, and cannabis. That's a lot of drugs. I can't believe the guy could even sit still, much less drive straight. They sentenced him to eight months in jail, which will be suspended, of course. In America they'd lock his ass up for a good long time.

Over the weekend more than 140 illegal immigrants in two cayucos washed up on the Canary Islands, as the boat people continue their exodus from West Africa.

Quite a night in the Spanish football first division. Barça beat the crap out of Levante, 5-1, on goals by Xavi, Messi, and a hat-trick by Eto'o. Ronaldinho looked pretty good; he might be on the way back. Iniesta had another excellent game, and Bojan made a nice goal-scoring pass. Yeah, Levante sucks, they're buried in last place and by far the worst team in the league, but Barcelona showed what it can do. Zambrotta was the only Barça player who wasn't in top shape; he'd better play better than this or I vote we get rid of him.

And they narrowed Real Madrid's lead to two points with thirteen games to go, so suddenly it's a horse race and Barça controls its own destiny, since they still have to play Real Madrid at the Bernabeu with those three points up for grabs.

Madrid choked big-time at home. They didn't play well, creating only four opportunities in the whole game, and they lost to Getafe 0-1, especially embarrassing since Getafe is a low-rent team from suburban Madrid. The American equivalent would be New York losing to Jersey City.

And even more embarrassing: Madrid "scored a goal," but the linesman had blown offsides, so it didn't count; only Raul and Guti noticed for Real, while all the others jumped all over one another to celebrate. Unfortunately for Madrid, the Getafe goalie, Pato Abbondanzieri or however you spell his name, was quick on the uptake, placed the ball, booted it down the field, and it was a five-on-two fast break for Getafe. And they converted it, and it was goodnight, Nurse.

Several Cuban dissidents were freed by the Communist dictatorship last week after many years and much suffering in prison. Four of them were exiled to Spain; this piece of news got a mention in the Spanish papers on Thursday.

However, the Spanish press--and I checked La Vanguardia, El Periodico, El Mundo, El Pais, and Publico--didn't bother reporting on the dissidents' press conference, which was held right here in Barcelona.

The Daily Telegraph did. Check out the photograph of the man showing the bone that Castro's torturers broke, and then denied him medical treatment for. What a disgrace.

Oh, yeah, Raul got elected president. Unanimously. Of course, he was the only candidate.

Interior minister Perez Rubalcaba announced today that he believes that ETA will attempt a bombing sometime before the March 9 election. He has put the security forces on maximum anti-terrorist alert level, and is not ruling out the possibility of an Islamist terror attack, either.

I will point out that the last time we had a general election in Spain Al Qaeda blew up three trains and killed 191 people three days before; the citizenry reacted by voting out the tough-on-Islamism PP and installing Zap, who instantly did what the terrorists wanted and withdrew Spanish troops from Iraq; Al Qaeda learned that massive terrorist attacks work in Spain; and we know that Zap's gesture did not give Spain an insurance policy against further Islamic attacks.

The European Commission predicts that Spain's GDP will increase by 2.7% this year, while inflation will be 3.7%, meaning we're facing a slight real decline in household income. Eurozone countries are expected to grow at a 1.8% rate, and the EU as a whole by 2%. Consumer confidence in Spain is down, household spending has plateaued, and savings are up. The real estate market is way down, and the construction sector has greatly slowed, meaning higher unemployment. Good sign: Capital goods investment was 8.6% in the fourth quarter of 2007. Also, with less household spending, the trade deficit will get smaller, as much of Spain's imports are consumer goods.

More complaining about Barcelona's El Prat airport: Iberia has made an offer for its competitor Spanair, which is owned by SAS. If the sale goes through, Iberia will control about 50% of all passenger traffic, and 70% of domestic passenger traffic, at El Prat. La Vanguardia says, "If Iberia buys Spanair, the subordination of El Prat to Madrid Barajas, where the ex-monopoly has centralized its intercontinental flights, will be almost absolute, since the ex-monopoly has made it clear on many occasions that its priority is to strengthen Madrid's infrastructure."

People, it's the market. There will only be more flights in and out of Barcelona if Barcelona can provide more passengers for them. If not, then not. Enough whining about Madrid being favored.

Catalan premier Montilla says that if the Iberia purchase goes through, he'll challenge it on antitrust grounds. Fair enough, that's what the competition tribunal is there for, but they're going to lose because Iberia isn't stopping (and can't stop) any other airline from introducing passenger routes to compete with it.

The Spanish election campaign officially begins tonight at midnight, though of course everyone's been campaigning for months. The PSOE's slogan, along with a picture of Rajoy, Zaplana, and Acebes dressed up like the mobsters in Reservoir Dogs, is "If you don't go (to vote), they'll come back." This means that they're running a purely negative campaign, that they believe the PP is most vulnerable over the March 11 bombing and the Iraq war and so they're going to run against that again, and that they think that Socialist turnout will be low, so they're focusing on bringing out their own grass roots instead of trying to win votes in the center.

CiU's running a negative campaign, too, with the slogan, "They'll respect Catalonia (if we win)." Their newspaper ads have fuzzy photos of Zap along with a bunch of his quotations promising things he didn't do, which I suppose means that Zap is not sufficiently respectful. What I'd like to know is how exactly CiU plans to force everyone to "respect Catalonia," whatever that means.

I'm going to take a fairly wild guess here: I think the PP is going to do better than expected. Zap's not very popular, he hasn't really changed things very much, they're running a negative campaign, turnout is going to be low, and the Catalans are really pissed off at the Socialists. The PP's biggest problem is Rajoy's negatives, which are very high.

By the way, thanks to Gates of Vienna for linking to us; they have a piece over there on the Spanish election.

They did another international educational study, this time called Perls, analyzing ten-year-olds' reading comprehension. Russia and Hong Kong scored at the top, over 560 points; Italy, Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands, Flanders, and Denmark scored between about 544 and 552; the US scored 540, and England 538, followed by Scotland and France in the 520s, then Poland, then Spain at 514. The average of the 39 countries surveyed was 510; Wallonia and Norway both scored below 500, with Morocco and South Africa way down there in the low 300s.

The percentage of students with a "low or very low" level of reading comprehension was: 7% in Hong Kong, 8% in the Netherlands, 13% in Germany, 18% in the United States, 22% in England, 24% in France, 28% in Spain, 33% in Norway, and an appalling 91% in Morocco.

The United States scored considerably better than I'd expected; the English, French, and Spanish have one more reason now to stop thinking we're all stupid. I imagine these results are a product of the great improvement in school choice and the proliferation of standardized tests. Yeah, I know the teachers "teach to the test," but at least they're teaching something, and teaching to the test doesn't work if the kids don't already know how to read.

Speaking of thinking we're all stupid, check out this rather patronizing quote from La Vanguardia on Pau Gasol's reception in Los Angeles:

Surprise. At almost ten thousand kilometers away from Barcelona, and despite the stereotypes about the geographical ignorance of the Americans, they know us. "At the front door of the arena," explained Mata (a Catalan in LA who showed up with a Catalan flag), "the security guard asked me, 'Is that a Basque or a Catalan flag?'"

Oh, yeah, you remember the "United States Threatens Earth" headline in Publico a few days ago? Turns out they blew up the satellite as planned, with no problems. By the way, despite the alarmism of professional alarmists, no one has ever been injured, much less killed, by space junk falling to earth, and they figure it's a million-to-one chance: that you're much more likely to be struck by lightning than hit by space junk.

The high-speed train (AVE) between Barcelona and Madrid entered service this morning. Remains to be seen whether this will help or hurt Zap in the election. La Vanguardia has a piece complaining about the years-long delay of the AVE (they have a point, though the blame rests equally on the central government, the Generalitat, and the municipalities) and on the fact that the system is centered in Madrid (what do they expect? Madrid is, like, in the center). La Vangua demands AVE routes from Barcelona to the French border, and from Barcelona to Valencia. It claims that the French don't want to extend their line to the Spanish border because they fear that Barcelona would take over too much business and influence from southern French cities like Montpellier and Toulouse. I doubt it. I think they have other priorities within France.

A bunch of student wannabe radical Cataloonies disrupted a speech by PP candidate Dolors Nadal at the Pompeu Fabra university here in Barcelona, screaming "Fascists get out!". Says Pilar Rahola:

Let's make this clear. Francoism made everyone who confronted it appear to be good. However, in the basket there were apples that were as rotten as Francoism itself, and the fact that they were persecuted does not make them freedom fighters. The Stalinists, for example, who had repressed and murdered their political adversaries, became epic victims through the Francoist repression. But, nevertheless, they were victimizers too. The same thing is true with the extremists in the Catalanist struggle. They were persecuted by the dictatorship, but they were not all democrats. Today, looking at these young barbarians, I remember the most fundamental thing: no people, no cause, no flag is immune to Fascist temptations. Denying this is a form of justifying it.

The Zap-Rajoy debates are set for February 25 and March 3. Zap should never have agreed to this. Rajoy can clean him up in a one-on-one debate, and that should result in an electoral bounce for the PP that the PSOE won't have enough time to fight back against.

There is speculation going around, probably started by the PP, saying that the PSOE and CiU will cut a deal after the election, in which CiU will join a coalition government in Madrid in exchange for the Socialists' dumping Montilla as Catalan premier, to be replaced by Artur Mas. Montilla has strongly denied it.

The Mataró police chief lost his license for eight months for drunk driving. What I want to know is why he's still the Mataró police chief.

Good news for folks interested in Catalonia: They've put the whole Gran Enciclopèdia Catalana on the Internet for free. It also includes a Catalan dictionary. The website runs really slowly, though. As far as I can tell, you can only search, you can't browse. Another problem: It was last updated in 1989. Still, if you're looking for information about Catalan or Spanish history, literature, politics, and the like, this is a welcome addition.

They rounded up 26 more Internet kiddie-porn pervs here in Spain. It seems like they round up another bunch of these guys every week. Is Spain that full of pedophiles? It can't be any worse here than in other Western countries, but you never hear about this stuff happening in other places. Maybe the Spanish cops put a higher priority on child pornography than other countries do.

The big news over here this morning is that Fidel Castro has decided not to "run for reelection," and so a new president of Cuba named Raul will succeed him on Sunday. I'm not sure what difference this makes, since Raul isn't going to change any of Fidel's methods. Raul's not going to begin a transition to democracy, and if anybody in Cuba thinks differently they're going to find themselves in jail. He's had two years to consolidate himself in power, and there are no signs of any liberalization.

This leads to the slightly paranoid question of whether Fidel is still actually alive, or if he's been either dead or a vegetable the last couple of years. We haven't seen anything of him but videotapes, remember. I doubt that such a cover-up could actually be kept under wraps; somebody would blab. They might be able to carry off such a coverup with only ten or so people in the know, except that one of those ten people would be Hugo Chavez and there's no way he'd ever keep quiet about anything.

Spain's reaction has been what you'd expect: they hope for democratic progress and some sort of transition, but as long as Zap is in power they're not actually going to do anything about it.

Let's hope the extremist fringe among the Miami Cubans doesn't try anything dumb.

Quick campaign promise update: Zap's promise to teach everybody English will require hiring 20,000 native speakers for the public schools, so this is good for us folks in the ESL business. He's also going to send thousands of Spanish teachers to England and Ireland for courses, so that's good news for you ESL folks up north. Assuming, of course, that Zap actually 1) gets elected and 2) keeps his promise.

Meanwhile, Rajoy has promised to increase state spending on sports, which is a bunch of crap if he's talking about spectator sports, which should be 100% private sector. If he means building swimming pools and gyms and soccer fields, and encouraging amateur leagues, so that ordinary citizens can actually play sports, then that's another thing.

Spain, as one might expect, is against the Kosovar declaration of independence, in opposition to the other large EU countries and the US. Spain has lined up with such world powers as Slovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria. Spanish foreign minister Miguel Ángel Moratinos said, "The Spanish government will not recognize this unilateral declaration because we consider that it does not respect international law." He added, "We have always defended international law. We did it when we decided to withdraw our troops from Iraq, and we will do it now when the question is secession from a state."

The Cataloonies, of course, are in favor of anything resembling secession, because that is exactly what they want to do here. TV3's coverage is very pro-Kosovar, and if you can read Catalan, check out all the comments on their website, nearly all of which are pro-secession. (There are a couple of whackjob Serbian fanatics among the commenters.)

Interestingly, nobody has mentioned the American flags being flown by the Kosovar pro-secession demonstrators. But Joan Puigcercós, ERC's`pathologically Cataloony hitman, called President Bush's recognition of Kosovo "a lesson in democracy for Spain." Quite a change; that's the first time I've ever seen such a rabid Cataloony say anything pro-American, much less pro-Bush.

Somebody leaked an internal security report to El Pais, who happily printed it on their front page, since it declares that the Spanish police have basically crushed ETA and thereby makes Zap look good since he's in charge. I imagine the report is 100% correct, but I also imagine that the link was purposely timed by pro-Zap elements within the interior ministry for a mere three weeks before the elections.

Says the report: ETA is so weakened that it has had to abandon the cell system. Formerly there were recruiting, logistical, material, shelter, training, and operational cells, but now the leadership only trusts a small group of fanatics, who are responsible for all these tasks. ETA is no longer capable of finding shelter for its terrorists after they pull a job, and so they are easily traced by the police. The organization has little or no structure left in France. The hard-core leaders in charge are facing a loss of support, and use the threat of violence to keep lesser members and sympathizers in line. There are some 560 ETA members in prison in Spain.

La Vanguardia ran an election survey yesterday showing the PSOE with a small but significant lead, contradicting the most recent CIS survey showing a dead heat. According to La Vangua, the PSOE would get 43.1% of the vote and 165 seats to the PP's 39.1% and 152 seats. CiU would get 10 seats, the PNV 6, ERC 5, the Communists 5, and others 7. 176 seats are needed for a majority; according to these figures, a PSOE-CiU coalition would need only one more vote, which they can probably get from the Canaries Coalition or one of the other tiny parties. Or the Commies.

Zap promised that within ten years all Spanish young people will know English. Hell, they don't even know proper Spanish.

Sports update: Barcelona won last night, 1-2, in Zaragoza, on a goal by Henry and a questionable penalty converted by Ronaldinho. Madrid got beat by Betis, so Barcelona is only five points back with fourteen games to play. No other teams are in contention for the League title, and Barça is still alive in both the Spanish Cup and the Champions' League. On Wednesday they play Celtic in Glasgow.

I found this Council on Foreign Relations survey of Spain between Franco's death in 1975 and the last Felipe González administration in about 1994. It's a very good political, economic, and foreign policy summary of what happened during those years from a liberal American perspective. It's not too long, just over 100 pages, and it's titled The New Spain: From Isolation to Influence.

I figured out how to make the archives work. Took me a while.

Check out what the pro-Zap, "Fuck Bush" rag Publico has up today.

The headline is, "United States Threatens Earth," followed by, "An American spy satellite the size of a bus will crash into our planet on March 6. The fuel it is transporting is very toxic to humans. The US will try to destroy it before it enters into contact with any populated zones. This is not a movie."

Of the 29 comments, two are reasonable, twelve are off-topic, five are anti-Publico ("Is this a newspaper or a comic book?", "My ten-year-old daughter can write better"), and ten are obnoxiously anti-American. Check some of them out:

The USA is a danger to the planet both actively and passively. It starts illegal wars, massacres civilians, creates prisons without legal guarantees, manipulates elections in other countries, overthrows governments that it doesn't like, dedicates itself to deteriorating the ecosystem irreversibly...and now, "by accident," it threatens us with its space junk, which in addition is toxic.

Knowing what the Americans are like, I wouldn't be surprised if the next possibly black president ends up like JFK...And of course the US wants to recover it, of course, who knows what kind of shit it contains.

The US is so fucking disgusting! Too bad it won't fall on the White House! Now Dan Brown can write another book!!!! We'll see it from the positive side! God, what an awful country!

The US is a threat to the rest of the world? We've all known that for a long time.

When will we have a UNITED EUROPE? Together we can free ourselves from these people (BUSH, and a few others from the same photo). When they don't destroy us with WARS, they invent something to screw over humanity. It's their nature.

Who are they going to send to destroy their spy satellite? Bruce Willis?...Who cares if Hillary...Obama...Republicans or Democrats win? The USA's policies are worse than their movies.

Nobody relates it to China's antisatellite text last year or Putin's demand to prohibit anti-satellite systems? This is a military test, the Cold War for control of outer space has begun.

When China destroyed a satellite with a missile, it caught the Yankees with their pants down. They scare me with their invention that they have to blow up one of their satellites, why did it fail on them. And these people don't give a damn who their shit (excuse me) that they put up there falls on. What they are trying to do is catch up to the Third World technologically, which already has an advantage over them. Indian and Pakistani computer technicians, now Chinese too. Of course the fuel is nuclear. Dirty and harmful to life. They're arrogant bullies, who think they're the greatest thing in creation. Lord, forgive them, but I never will.

Want to see a few comments on waterboarding, which the United States used three times on three top terrorists, including Khalid Sheik Mohammed, and thousands of times on its own soldiers as part of training?

Bush should include himself on the list of most wanted terrorists.

Bush and his friend Aznar should be interrogated with this "method," I'm sure that in ten minutes they would admit all the crimes they have committed against humanity. Every day I am more sure that the majority of countries and international bodies are run by the psychopaths most dangerous to humanity.

Bush is the biggest son of a bitch that the United States has given birth to. Chavez is right to confront him and call him the devil, though the devil is much more worthy than Bush.

If we use this system on Bush maybe he'll tell us what really happened with the Twin Towers and the WTC.

I'd love to beat the shit out of Bush. Bush, you're a pig.

What can you expect from that NEOFASCIST?...You only have to inform yourself about Bush's grandfather's activities during the Second World War. Today in the USA there are 800!!! concentration camps, empty but ready to be used. It's a question of time...more and more greater restrictions on freedom and more media censorship.

There was also a long comment about Israel and the Zionists that didn't make much sense so I haven't reproduced it.

How about some comments on the Northern Illinois University shooting?

Every day we wake up with a similar story from the US, armed psychopaths who murder massively in schools, all a product of that warlike society full of weapons. This is the exemplary democracy that Aznar proposes for us.

If the rulers use torture, if they cause violence in half the world, their society will be the reflection of their insanity, ignominy, and failure as human beings.

Let's think a minute. What psychopath commits suicide? We know the MK-Ultra mental control program was used on many people. Now the Monarch program is even stronger and more diabolical. I remember that in the Virginia massacre there were many witnesses that didn't fit in with the official version. Doesn't it seem like a coincidence that, now that the army is more present in the streets of the USA, and there are people protesting, that these things happen? Reed the laws that the little king Bush has passed with the approval of the Congress and the Senate. And they want to go farther!

I don't care if they all put on jockstraps and have a civil war and all kill each other. I'd be thrilled if there were none left.

Reality is always better than fiction. The US exports the most powerful weapon it has internally: Imperial violence. So this shouldn't horrorize the world.

He who sows tempests...The USA is an insane country, there is no doubt.

You'd be surprised how many people around here obsess over the United States all the time. All these quotes are up on Publico's website today.