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Posted 20:25 by John

Saturday evening blog roundup while listening to my favorite singer of them all, Johnny Cash:

Guirilandia sums up many people's thoughts on the Catalan election.

Planet Churro blasts job discrimination in favor of Catalan-speakers.

The Bad Rash features a very reasonable and moderate post (on environmentalism). In other news, the sun rose in the west, Perry Mason lost a case, Ronaldo passed up a donut, and an airborne, winged pig was sighted over Tibidabo.

South of Watford posts on the alleged Basque peace process. I'm afraid there isn't one. You have ETA, a terrorist gang, and then you have the democratic state under the rule of law. One must give in. Which? Well, ETA is unwilling to give in--and by give in, I mean lay down its arms in exchange for nothing--and so the state will continue prosecuting them to the fullest extent of the law. And it should do nothing else.

Guirilandia quotes Orwell, as I have in the past, on why people care so much about nationalism. Read the essay, Notes on Nationalism--it ought to be available somewhere on the web.

Publius Pundit has three different posts on Hugo Chavez's Venezuela, all of which you should read.

Pave France dismantles a few French pretensions.

”No Pasaran! features an enlightening video interview with an American humanist in Paris.

Fausta reads the tea leaves in the aftermath of the US election.

Posted 16:29 by John

Well, Bush has admitted defeat by getting rid of Rumsfeld, and the Democrats took both the Montana and Virginia Senate seats for a 51-49 majority, so I'm going to throw in the towel and do the same thing. The Democrats won, and one must accept the verdict of the voters. What it's time to do is learn some lessons from the Republican defeat and move on. Bush is going to meet with Nancy Pelosi, the new Dem Speaker of the House (who is a left-wing nut that the Spanish progres are going to love), in order to reach some sort of consensus on how to run the country for the next two years. That's a good first step.

Election comments:

1) Pro-war Democrat Joe Lieberman's victory over anti-war Democrat Ned Lamont in the Connecticut Senate race--and Connecticut is of course one of the most liberal states in the country--shows that while the election gave a verdict on the Republicans, it didn't give one on the Iraq war.

2) The US is not going to bug out of Iraq. There will be policy changes, possibly significant, but there will be no cutting and running.

3) The Democrats quite wisely moved toward the center; most of the new representatives and senators are moderates, not far-out lefties (e.g. Bob Casey). The Republicans might learn a lesson, and should turn a deaf ear to those cultural conservatives who claim the Reps lost because they weren't conservative enough.

4) I don't think the Mark Foley scandal had much effect, but I do think the other corruption scandals, mostly involving Republicans, did. Duke Cunningham, Jack Abramoff, and Bob Ney helped do in the Reps. (Tom DeLay is not guilty of anything but angering the Austin DA.) And if the Reps are smart, there will be a thorough house-cleaning.

5) If we look for the silver lining, a shakeup like this will help the Reps by getting rid of some deadwood (cf. Lincoln Chafee, George Allen) and bringing in some new blood. This election wasn't a wipeout; the Reps came close to holding the Senate and maintained 200 seats in the House. If some new, young candidates are able to step up in 2008, the Reps have a very good chance of winning back both houses.

6) If Bush attempts to cooperate with the Dems, and they refuse, they're the ones who look bad. Legislative gridlock, which is likely to happen, might backfire on the Dems.

7) Maybe this will prove once and for all that the Republicans do not steal elections, and most certainly did not do so in 2000.

8) I also hope it proves that the conservative Christians, while an important social group worthy of respect, don't run America, as Andy Robinson seems to think.

9) Bush's domestic programs, like making all his tax cuts permanent, are going to be held up and probably shot down. Also, of course, so will his judicial nominees. The one thing I would do, if I were the Republicans, is warn the Dems that unless they play ball on our nominees, we'll block all their judicial nominees whenever they get a chance to make some.

I was going to translate some anti-American crap by Manuel Castells and Andy Robinson, but, hell, you've heard it all before. Instead, it's time for a very reasonable blog post by Washington correspondent Eusebio Val from the day before the elections.

Covering the legislative elections for La Vanguardia, I took a coast-to-coast trip across the United States for 12 days. From Connecticut, on Long Island Sound, to the beaches of Los Angeles; from the poverty-stricken Afro-American neighborhoods of Detroit to the exhibitionist opulence of Beverly Hills to the Indian reservations in Montana. The goal was to take the pulse of the country's state of mind, to escape from the over-politicized and deceiving (engańosa) atmosphere of Washington and to talk to ordinary people in different environments. I have seen strong contrasts, heard contradictory opinions, some measured and others extremist.

The first conclusion is that the war in Iraq concerns the Americans a great deal, although only a small fraction is affected directly. Other questions--the economy, moral values, immigration, health insurance--are secondary at this moment. There is wide and deep unhappiness at the way the administration has managed the Iraq crisis. The Democrats say it openly and rancorously. The Republicans admit it discreetly and with some bitterness.

It is difficult to synthesize average opinion. I would say that it is moderate and centrist, which could be represented by either the Democrats or the Republicans. The American soul is not with either the left which is pressing for a rapid retirement, or with the rhetoric of an administration that is too discredited by its mistakes and its obstinate resistance to admitting them. Differently from Europe, these centrists were in favor of the war in 2003 and contributed decisively to Bush's reelection in November 2004.

This calm, non-strident America that does not flourish in the surveys and public opinion is the key to understanding the United States. That America is anguished and disappointed, but be careful! It doesn't want a hurried and irresponsible pullout, either. They are sincerely patriotic Americans, with patience. Their fathers or grandfathers fought in Vietnam, Korea, World War II. They know the United States is playing for high stakes in the Middle East. This sector will support a consensus formula seeking a gradual withdrawal.

The great virtue of democracies is that, through simple mathematical logic, when such a wide mass is consulted, frequently the people's common sense is thereby distilled. The complicated thing is turning that into a governing majority with concrete policies. The farmers, the people tied to the earth and its natural cycles, also have that common sense. Perhaps that is why one of the most revealing interviews of the entire trip was not with a politician, analyst, or intellectual. It was in the cabin of a tractor in a recently harvested corn field in Waseca, Minnesota.

Peter Zimmerman, 43 years old and the father of four children, told me that his family is from a Republican tradition and believes in conservative values. Despite being well-off farmers, with 800 hectares of land and investments in Brazil, his brother Paul is a lieutenant colonel in the Minnesota National Guard, a voluntary, part-time force. Paul is risking his life now in Iraq, where he is serving for one year.

I was impressed by Peter's clarity in explaining his ideas. He confessed his disappointment with the Bush administration. In his opinion, the president "is a good man," but has made the mistake of surrounding himself with too many people that think like him and of not being capable of creating a solid international coalition. Despite everything, Peter is going to vote Republican in this election because he trusts the Democrats even less. I have the feeling that this farmer has a lot of company in the US, as do the numerous Democrats who would not like an exaggerated backlash in Washington. No matter what the results of the elections are, the US is calling for moderate, bipartisan, public-spirited politics.

If all European correspondents were as fair as Mr. Val, Europe would have a much better idea of what the US is really like.

Posted 15:03 by John

With most of the results in, the Democrats have taken the House of Representatives and the Senate is still up in the air, 49-49, with two seats (Virginia and Montana) still to be decided. Since the vice-president (Cheney) breaks tie votes in the Senate, the Dems need to win both to gain control.

Fox News took an exit poll, and its analysis of the results show why voters did what they did. Definitely check this link out. I have to admit that the poll makes clear that the election was, at least partially, a referendum on the Bush administration and the Iraq war. I'm not yet prepared to admit defeat, though, because the Republicans are going to score more than 200 representatives (out of 435)--that is, the election wasn't a wipeout--, and we'll still have to wait and see how the Senate comes out.

Important point: The Republican candidates piled up a total percentage of the vote that is considerably higher than any of the five parties in the Catalan election. That is, the word "repudiation," which we are going to hear a lot over the next few days in the local press, doesn't exactly apply.

Posted 13:41 by John

Tuesday afternoon blog roundup while listening to the incomparable Bob Dylan:

(Hey, you know, if you click on the above links you get groovy music clips!)

La Liga Loca has the lowdown on last week's Spanish soccer action, and Rob and Rany on the Royals fill us in on the latest about our boys in powder-blue.

”No Pasarįn! blasts the enviro hysteria surrounding the infamous Stern Report.

Winds of Change is pessimistic on nuclear proliferation.

Angie Schultz posts on advertising and today's US elections; Right Wing News has specific predictions on the Senate races; so does Real Clear Politics; so does Power Line; Michelle Malkin warns of aggressive leftist poll watchers; Expat Yank comments from England; Daniel W. Drezner asks what effect Google-bombing might have on elections;

Publius Pundit has a long, interesting, and complete post on the Nicaraguan elections. Highly recommended.

Pave France analyzes France's role in NATO.

Akaky cracks me up.

Patterico fisks a pro-Saddam article in the Guardian, of course. The Rottweiler joins in and savages the Guardian's appalling stupidity. (Comment: I pronounce Guardian as GWAR-dee-un, because that's the way I always heard the word back home, including at school, as in "Students, your report cards must be signed by your parents or guardians." The Brits pronounce it as GAR-dee-un, which is fine with me, but they insist on correcting my pronunciation, which is not. And these are the people who pronounce "duel" as if it were "Jew" with a glottal stop on the end.)

Outside the Beltway asks whether it is rational to vote.

Davids Medienkritik blasts Der Speigel's anti-Yankee bias again, including its coverage of the US election.

Posted 16:54 by John

On the first international page of today's edition of La Vanguardia, Beirut correspondent Tikrit Tommy Alcoverro calls Saddam "the overthrown (derrocado) president of Iraq" rather than, say, "ex-dictator," which would seem a little more neutral to me. Tikrit Tommy goes on to play up wacky conspiracy theories that claim that the death sentence was timed to influence the US midterm elections. Quote: "Since the beginning of this controversial trial, it has been reiterated (se ha insistido) that political motivations are behind it, and that it has not conformed to correct procedure."

Speaking of the US elections, the latest polls have the Republicans closing the overall vote gap with the Democrats.

Zap went to Montevideo for the Ibero-American summit meeting and things didn't go too well. Supposedly King Juan Carlos is going to "facilitate" talks between Argentina and Uruguay, who are not getting along particularly well. Sounds like a big mistake to me--the King can only lose prestige. Zap agreed to cut back interest payments on Argentina's €800 million debt to Spain. Evo Morales called Zap a hypocrite on immigration, which he is, and Alvaro Uribe dressed Zap down for making a stupid comment comparing the alleged threat to the environment to terrorism. The US border fences with Mexico were roundly condemned; of course Spain has border fences up at the Ceuta and Melilla land frontiers with Morocco, at which thousands of desperate African illegal immigrants are piled up trying to get across somehow.

Around here there have been repeated complaints about strict airline security. Eusebio Val in Washington points out a difference between Spaniards and Americans:

The stoicism and patience with which, in general, American passengers behave when faced with the discomforts of airports, are surprising: long lines at the checkpoints, taking off shoes and jackets, taking computers out of their cases, and other operations which, when in a hurry, can become very irritating. It is very unusual for someone to protest or raise his voice because he feels mistreated or loses his nerves.

So far, so good. Note the comparison Val makes with the way Spaniards behave in such situations.

This acceptance is possibly due to the fact that here there is more respect for authority--and fear of punishment--than in countries with a Latin tradition, along with greater acceptance of civic responsibility in that the antiterrorist struggle demands sacrifices from everyone. Perhaps pragmatism also has an influence: why argue if it doesn't change anything?

I'll agree with the "respect for authority," because I believe most Americans respect authority because they feel that authority is legitimate, that authority is responsive to their concerns and listens to their voices. The situation is not the same in Latin countries, especially not in countries that had dictatorial governments well within living memory. I don't think fear of punishment is a factor--they can't put you in jail for getting pissed off and acting like a jerk. Good manners is a factor, and so is other people's opinion; there's an unwritten American law that says you don't bother strangers with your problems, you suck it up and deal with it. Also, if you lose your temper and start acting like a three-year-old, everyone will think you're a dick, and most people don't want to be thought of as dicks.

Americans' experience in traveling, their knowledge of weather problems and air traffic saturation, make them very understanding in situations that would cause a collective riot in other latitudes. Instead of protesting noisily, they choose to rapidly find a solution to their individual problem.

I think that's called "maturity."

I remember Val writing something on this subject a couple of years ago. Val's sympathy for the individual American is a bit unusual among Spanish correspondents.

Just to clear up a misunderstanding that some people had: A former FC Barcelona soccer player named Sergi Lopez committed suicide on Saturday by throwing himself under a train in his hometown of Granollers. Lopez apparently had serious marital problems, and had recently left his wife in Argentina and returned to Spain. He is the older brother of Gerard Lopez, former Barēa and Valencia player currently with Monaco.

Lopez was not a particularly well-known player, participating in some twenty matches with Barēa's first team between about 1989-91. I didn't remember who he was when I heard the story, and had to be reminded.

Anyway, though, the player who killed himself is NOT the much-better-known Sergi Barjuan, known footballistically simply as "Sergi," a fine left fullback for Barēa and then Atletico de Madrid, and a regular on Spain's national team, between about 1992-2002.

Posted 21:43 by John

The new Catalan administration will be Tripartite II; everyone was surprised at how quickly the deal was made. I was expecting weeks of tense negotiations. Montilla will be premier and Carod-Rovira will be vice-premier. Montilla told Mas on Friday that he did not want to deal with CiU, and on Saturday Mas offered Carod half the cabinet portfolios and the chief of cabinet post. Carod turned him down and today met with Montilla, when the deal was cut. Supposedly Carod is going to behave himself and Montilla is going to be the boss. I dunno; Montilla is an inside-politics guy, a party hack, and will probably do a lot better keeping Carod in line than the charismatic dilettante Maragall did.

The PP is rubbing its hands in glee, since they can paint Zapatero as the guy whose party made a coalition with that crazy separatist Carod who went and met with the ETA in Perpignan for the next year and a half until the 2008 election.

The US midterm election is getting some coverage over here, though not intense. The general perception is that it's a referendum on Bush, which is of course a bit simplistic. Politics in the United States is largely local, and most people vote mostly on local and domestic issues. Agreed, foreign affairs plays a role, as do people's images of the national parties, but I think a House or Senate race is more of a contest between the two local candidates than a verdict on national politics.

Right now the polls say things are very tight. My gut feeling is that the Republicans will hold at least one of the two houses. If they can hold both, that would be impressive, since historically the electorate moves against the incumbent president toward the end of his second term.

If the Democrats win both houses handily, I'll be willing to agree the election was a referendum on Bush. If not...

There's been some typically brilliant commentary in the local rags from the likes of Manuel Castells and Andy Robinson, which I'll translate for tomorrow.

Football. Barcelona drew 1-1 with Deportivo at Riazor in a hard-fought but not especially stylish game. Carles Puyol's father was killed on Saturday afternoon in a labor accident--he ran a small company that owns excavating machines, and was out doing some work on a rural road when his excavator turned over and crushed him. Shows you something about Puyol and his family, hard-working salt-of-the-earth Catalan folk. Though the son is a multimillionare soccer player, Dad kept on with his everyday life. Of course Puyol instantly flew back home to his family, and Thuram substituted for him.

Ronaldinho is at about 80%; the guy could use a rest, I think. He hasn't had much rest since the summer of 2005. Thuram is not quite fitting into the defense; one explanation I've heard is that Juventus ran a much more solid defensive scheme, and Thuram had a lot of help there, while here at Barēa he is often left on his own with an opposing forward while everybody else is halfway down the field. Saviola looks OK, but one problem is that he's small, and so are Xavi and Giuly and Iniesta and Deco and Messi, and you put all those guys on the field at the same time, especially against somebody like Chelsea, and they'll just beat the crap out of your quick skill players.

Real Madrid lost at home in the Bernabeu, 1-2, to Celta. Not good. Unless you're a Barcelona fan, of course.

They're going to hang Saddam. Good. I hope he finds the experience unpleasant. Zap said something about how the EU does not approve of the death penalty. I think the Iraqis don't give a rat's ass what Zap thinks.

Posted 16:50 by John

Daniel at Planet Churro has a very good piece on why most of us Barcelona expats are rather unsympathetic to Catalan nationalism. Definitely check it out.

Posted 15:56 by John

Notes on the aftermath of the Catalan elections:

Mathematically, there are three realistic possibilities for a governing coalition: PSC + IC + ERC, the Tripartite; CiU + PSC, Sociovergencia; and CiU + ERC, a nationalist front.

Montilla would prefer another Tripartite, but he wants to put conditions on ERC's behavior because he doesn't trust them farther than he can spit. Zapatero says he plans to stay out of the coalition-making and let Montilla make the arrangement he thinks best. If I were Zap I'd lean on Montilla hard to La Vanguardia points out that if there is a new Tripartite coalition, Montilla, the candidate whose party lost the most seats, would be premier, and Mas, the head of the opposition, would constantly be able to remind him that he, Mas, received 140,000 more votes. Another problem is that the last Tripartite broke up precisely over ERC's refusal to back the new Catalan statute of autonomy (regional constitution), agreed upon by Mas and Zapatero, which the PSC and IC supported.

ERC says it would prefer a Tripartite, too, but is holding out to see what kind of deal Montilla is offering. They have the bargaining chip of opening negotiations with CiU if Montilla's conditions are too stringent. Many of ERC's members would prefer a nationalist front to another Tripartite coalition, and since the party is very loosely organized, significant blocs of members might go as far as splitting off.

CiU would prefer a Sociovergente coalition with Mas as premier; Mas and Montilla are meeting today. The deal Mas is offering would give the PSC pretty much anything it wants, except for the premiership. CiU would agree to pipe down with the nationalist demands and, more importantly, would promise support for Zapatero in Madrid. That sounds like a pretty good deal to me and if I were Montilla I would take it rather than be forced to govern in coalition with ERC. Mas can also hold a possible nationalist front with ERC over their heads during the negotiations, but I'll bet he'd rather hug a stingray than pact with Carod. He's not ruling it out, though; he meets with Carod on Monday.

Geopolitical stuff that interests only me: All ten of Barcelona's districts voted the same way they had in the last election. The four districts that tend toward the middle class, Sarrią-St. Gervasi, Les Corts, the Eixample, and Grącia, gave CiU a plurality; the other six, more working class, Sants-Montjuic, Ciutat Vella, St. Martķ, St. Andreu, Nou Barris, and Horta-Guinardó, gave the PSC a plurality.

CiU did best in Sarrią with 44.6%, Barcelona's wealthiest and most Catalan district (more than 51% voted for the two nationalist parties), and worst in Nou Barris with 19.3%, Barcelona's most working-class and most Spanish district. Of course, the PSC did best in Nou Barris with 37.5% and worst in Sarrią with 11.2%. The PP did best in Sarrią, with 19.5%, and worst in ideosyncratic Grącia, with 9.5%. IC did best in Ciutat Vella, with 15.5%, and pulled 15.4% in Grącia; of course, it did worst in Sarrią, with 7.7%. ERC did best in the largest and most heterogenous district, the Eixample, with 17.7%, and worst in Sarrią, with 7.4%. Ciudadans did best in Sarrią, with 5.8%, and worst in Ciutat Vella, with 3.1%.

In the suburbs, the PSC did best in Montilla's hometown Cornellą, Santa Coloma, and Viladecans, with over 40% of the vote. Cornellą is almost certainly the most leftist town in Catalonia, with a total of 58% of the vote going to the two leftist parties. Les Borges Blanques is probably the most nationalist town, with a massive 71% of the vote for the two nationalist parties; Vic is second with 68%. The PP pulls a surprisingly strong 15.8% in Tarragona city. ERC peaks in Les Borges Blanques with 31.4% and Montblanc with 29.1%.

Posted 15:12 by John

This is off the Associated Press wire today:

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip — Israeli forces opened fire Friday on a group of women who streamed to a Gaza mosque to serve as human shields for gunmen holed up there, killing one and wounding 10, Palestinian officials and witnesses said.

A 22-year-old Palestinian man was also killed in the northern town of Beit Hanoun, which troops seized Wednesday in a bid to halt Palestinian rocket fire on southern Israeli communities. More than 20 Palestinians, most of them militants, have been killed in the offensive.

Israeli tanks and armored personnel carriers quickly surrounded the mosque after gunmen fleeing troops sought refuge there, the military and Palestinian security officials said. Most of the gunmen — estimates ranged from one dozen to several dozen — were thought to be from the military wing of the Palestinians' ruling Hamas party.

That is, Hamas was hiding behind women and shooting at the Israelis. What cowardice. How pathetic. Follow the above link for the rest of the story.

Now here's TV3's story, their top international report on this afternoon's news:

The Israeli army's land and air offensive against the Gaza strip, which has already caused 34 deaths according to Hebrew sources and 25 according to Palestinian, continues. The most recent victims in an exchange of fire between soldiers and armed Palestinian activists at a mosque in Beit Hanoun. They are two women who acted as human shields so that the hundred women occupying the mosque could escape. Israeli army sources state that their soldiers shot at armed "militars" (literally "soldiers", but I think they mean "militants") who were participating in the women's protest at the mosque in the northern Gaza strip.

Wow. That's a completely different story. There was a demonstration at the mosque, not a bunch of terrorists using it as a fortress. Two righteous women were killed by the Israeli army while valiantly protecting fellow protesters.

It seems that there were a hundred women occupants. The majority, however, managed to escape when the victims left the mosque and attracted the attention of the Hebrew army. In all, it is thought there are still between fifteen and twenty Palestinian women in the two buildings that make up the holy place.

I've never heard TV3 call a church a "holy place."

The army, which has the mosque surrounded and has called on the Palestinians to surrender, stated that the Palestinians shot at them from inside the mosque. Some sources have also stated that military bulldozers have knocked down a wall of the masque, causing the roof to cave in above one of the rooms, which fell on the militants and may have killed some.

Meanwhile, the Israeli army's air offensive against the Gaza Strip continues. Hebrew airplanes fired two missiles that caused the death of four Palestinians. The first missile left three wounded and one dead. Half an hour later, a second missile killed three Palestinians in the same area. In three days of operation in Beit Hanoun, the Israeli army has killed 34 Palestinians, according to the electronic edition of the Israeli daily Yediot Aharonot. That figure contrasts with the number of victims given by Palestinian medical sources, who say that 25 Palestinians have died.

Jeez. With the media spouting such biased information, never mentioning why the Israelis have invaded Gaza in the first place--because Hamas is firing rockets at Israeli civilians--the fervid anti-Israel feeling in Spain, and especially Catalonia, is no surprise.

Posted 13:52 by John

Thursday afternoon blog roundup while listening to Hank Williams:

Here's Planet Churro's commentary on yesterday's Catalan elections, along with his pre-election predictions.

Barcelona Reporter has more, including a chart with all the exact numbers. Several posts.

Nihil Obstat in Catalan and Red Liberal in Spanish (a dozen posts; read them all) have further comments.

The Rottweiler is unhappy with John Kerry. Note the photo. So is Daniel W. Drezner, though without profanity. Patterico is mad not only at Kerry, but also the New York Times.

Beautiful Horizons opines on the Nicaraguan election, and Publius Pundit reports on Hugo Chavez's involvement with the failed insurrection in Oaxaca.

Right Wing News has a thoughtful post on why Republicans should turn out next week.

Winds of Change has another excellent one on the struggle against Al Qaeda in Iraq.

And La Liga Loca fills us in on Real Madrid's poor showing in Bucharest, and warns the English to lock up their transsexuals because Guti might be on the way. (If I remember correctly, Guti has been romantically linked to transvestite Bibi Fernandez.)

Posted 22:19 by John

One small change with more than 95% of the vote counted: it's CiU 48, PSC 37, ERC 21, PP 14, IC 12, Ciutadans 3.

Further notes: Maragall didn't look at all happy or too sober up on the stage while Montilla was claiming victory; Montilla's line was that CiU failed in its attempt to get more votes than the Tripartite. Zapatero's extensive campaigning in Catalonia does not seem to have done the PSC much good. CiU certainly did not do anywhere near as well as the surveys said. The PP is out of play; no one wants anything to do with them, and I imagine Ciutadans is in the same boat.

Posted 21:45 by John

80% of the vote has been counted. It's CiU 47, PSC 38, ERC 21, PP 14, IC 12, Ciutadans 3. You can see the nationalist vote from the provinces coming in late. With these results, a CiU-ERC nationalist front gets the 68 seats it needs, so there are now three possibilities along with Sociovergencia and the Tripartite. The awful thing is that unless the PSC is willing to accept playing second banana in a grand coalition, the ERC national socialists will get to decide what the next government will look like.

Posted 21:42 by John

The vote in Barcelona city: PSC 27.6%, CiU 27.3%, PP 13.0%, ERC 12.4%, IC 12.3%, Ciutadans 3.3%. You can see that Barcelona is less nationalist and more leftist than the countryside.

Big winners so far: Convergence and Initiatiative. Big loser Esquerra.

Posted 21:30 by John

Official data with 53% of the vote in: CiU 30.1%, 47 seats; PSC 29.4%, 40; ERC 13.6%, 19; PP 10.8%, 14; IC 9.6%, 12; Ciutadans 3.0%, 3.

Posted 21:16 by John

With 31% of the vote counted, the percentages for each party are barely changing with each new report. Now the distribution of parliamentary seats is CiU 45, PSC 42, ERC 19, PP 14, IC 12, Ciutadans 3.

Points to remember: Most of the early vote coming in is from Barcelona province, where the PSC, PP, IC, and Ciutadans are comparatively strongest. The three other provinces, Girona, Lleida, and Tarragona, are traditional strongholds for the nationalist parties, CiU and ERC. If the number of allocated seats changes, it will likely be to the benefit of these last two.

The turnout is very low. Regional elections get lower turnouts than municipals and generals, because a sizable number of voters who do not feel particularly Catalan do not come out for the regionals. In the generals and municipals, the Socialists generally win here in Catalonia, while CiU generally wins the regionals. Nobody, not even the parties involved, cares too much about the European parliamentary elections.

Right now CiU and ERC sum up 64 seats, four short of the 68 they need for a majority. If the votes are out there in the provinces, a nationalist front is not out of the question. Still, though, it looks like either Sociovergencia or the Tripartite.

Posted 21:04 by John

They've just released another projection, with 15% of the vote counted: CiU 29.3% of the vote, 44 seats; PSC 31.7%, 43; ERC 12.9%, 19; PP 10.7%, 14; IC 9.1%, 12; Ciutadans 2.8%, 3.

Looks like there are two realistic outcomes: a CiU-PSC grand coalition, which is what I predicted, or Tripartite II, which I just don't think is going to happen.

We have to keep in mind that these are nowhere near definitive figures, of course. CiU seems to be doing much more poorly than expected, and the big surprise is Ciutadans, which I had completely counted out.

Posted 21:00 by John

With 5.6% of the vote counted, TV3 projects the following results in the Catalan regional election: Catalan Socialists (PSC) 32.6% of the vote and 47 seats; Convergence and Union (CiU) 29.6%, 42; Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) 12.7%, 18; People's Party (PP) 10.4%, 14; Initiative for Catalonia 8.6%, 11; Citizens of Catalonia 2.5%, 3.

Posted 16:21 by John

Here in Catalonia, it's a Japanese girl's favorite day--Erection Day! This afternoon on the TV3 news, as is traditional, the first fifteen minutes were devoted to film of the various candidates depositing their ballots in the plexiglass urns. The results will be announced at 9:30 PM tonight, which would be 3:30 Eastern time in the US. Iberian Notes will liveblog them.

According to an October 15 survey quoted in La Vanguardia, Catalans identified the following as "principal problems at this moment":

Housing 60%
Immigration 58%
Crime 39%
Unemployment 30%
Health care 24%
Education 18%
Government finances 15%
Corruption 15%
Infrastructure 15%
Use of Catalan 13%

Looks like citizens' priorities are pretty clear. Housing prices are through the roof and significant Third World immigration is just beginning to affect Catalonia. Esquerra Republicana was playing the immigration card so heavily for a reason. People appear to be pretty content with the educational and health care systems, both of which provide fairly decent service for huge unwieldy government bureaucracies. And nobody gives a rat's ass about the language question except for the fanatics; I'll bet that 13% who think use of Catalan is a problem are exactly the same 13% who vote for Esquerra.

Wacky Anti-Americanism Watch: Halloween, as you probably know, was yesterday, and today is Todos los Santos, All Souls' Day, when Spaniards traditionally go to visit their ancestors' graves at the cemetery. I remember back in the mid-70s, when I was a kid, Halloween was basically a kids' holiday, and it wasn't really that big a deal. I don't remember adults participating, except to hand out candy to trick-or-treaters. Now, in the States, it's an excuse for adults to dress up and get drunk, and it's become one of the major celebrations of the year.

Some smart European marketers decided they'd try to sell Halloween junk over here and tried to introduce the holiday into Europe. They've had some success--by now everybody has at least heard of Halloween--but it's still most distinctly socially tainted as an American custom.

So, according to La Vanguardia,

Father Joan Maria Canals, Director of the Spanish Bishops' Conference's Episcopal Committee on Liturgy said that when a loved one dies, children are kept away from the corpse, while during the Halloween holiday, based on fear, death, the living dead, black magic, and mystical monsters, minors dress up using these elements. "Death is not a game or a party to have fun one day a year. What idea of death is left in the heart of the child who has dressed up as a skull and has been playing?" wondered Canals. "On one hand, schools and parents encourage their children to dress up on Halloween, and on the other, when the death of a loved one arrives, what happens?" In his opinion, Halloween must be given "a Christian meaning," since it is celebrated on the day on which the Catholic Church "recalls the memory of all those who are now in Heaven contemplating the Lord."

I think this guy might be taking the whole thing a bit too seriously. Wonder how he'd react to Mexico's Day of the Dead? That's even more morbid than Halloween. Oh, wait, it's Hispanic and Catholic. Must be OK.

Hell of a soccer game last night as Barcelona and Chelsea tied 2-2 at the Camp Nou. Barēa dominated for most of the match, but Chelsea is a great team and was able to pull out a draw in extra time. Lots of good plays by both teams in a rough game. Ronaldinho is back in form. Barēa now has to win its two remaining games, against Werder Bremen at the Camp Nou and against Levski in Sofia. If they can't do that, they don't deserve to advance.