Saturday, December 07, 2002

Here's one we posted back on the old site. Note the dead-on election prediction.

Oct. 2, 2002: According to an article from National Review Online by Byron York from a couple of days ago, a very recent Gallup Poll taken by telephone of 2500 Americans showed the following results, which might be of interest to certain folks who tend to underestimate Americans' general intelligence. The question was, simply, whether the respondent had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the person in question.

Person Favorable% Unfavorable% No opinion% Never heard of%

G. W. Bush 70 28 2 --
Cheney 65 24 7 4
Powell 88 6 3 3
Rumsfeld 61 19 10 10

The American people know who their president and the other main members of the Administration are. Everyone in the country knows who the President is and 90% of them know who the Secretary of Defense is. We bet that fewer than 90% of Spaniards know who their own Minister of Defense is. Also, Americans clearly have a very positive view of both President Bush and the three Administration leaders named. Colin Powell is the most popular, of course, because he is approved of by all Republicans and also by many Democrats sympathetic to people of his ethnic background. In addition, Democrats probably approve of Powell's publicly-taken positions (whether he really believes them or whether he's playing a preassigned role), which are perceived as more dovish than those of the rest of the Administration.

Gore 46 47 7 --
Daschle 39 26 16 16
Gephardt 40 23 19 20
H. Clinton 47 44 9 --
B. Clinton 47 49 4 --

All Americans know who the ex-president, his wife, now Senator, and the ex-vice president and presidential candidate are. We bet more than 7% of Spaniards don't remember who the Socialist candidate who was most recently thrashed by Aznar was. More than 80% of Americans have heard of the two opposition leaders in the Congress. Also, Americans have a lot of questions and doubts about the Democratic leadership. Both Clintons' and Gore's negatives are very high, and Daschle and Gephardt have lower negative scores but also low positive scores. On the basis of these poll returns, we predict a win for the Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections. Not necessarily a huge one, but a pretty good-sized win. You have to figure that swing districts will lean Republican because of people's sympathy for President Bush and their much greater negative feelings toward the Democrats. And "Wag the Dog" scenarios are BS; Bush doesn't need to attack Iraq in order to bring up his approval rating. The Democrats are the group with the low approval ratings.

Blair 69 8 9 14

More than 85% of Americans know who Tony Blair is, and their opinion of him is extremely favorable. Shows that Americans are at least somewhat informed about important international affairs and that they are appreciative when foreign leaders show their friendship with the United States.

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