The Axis of Weasels put in their objections in writing to the US request for NATO to prepare a defense plan for NATO member Turkey in case of attack. (Remember, this NATO crisis and the UN Security Council resolutions are completely different things.) That blocks the US motion, so Turkey is going to invoke Article Four for the first time in NATO history, saying that it considers that Iraq poses a threat to Turkey's "territorial integrity, political independence, or security". This would require NATO to hold consultations on defending its member Turkey.

The Vanguardia publishes a misleading map today, showing that the people of all European countries are against "an American military intervention without formal UN approval", according to a survey. The Brits are against it 68%-29%, the French against it 86%-12%, and the Spaniards 77%-16%. However, they are honest enough to mention that the survey was taken in January, before Powell's February sppech to the UN. They are not honest enough to present the results of the question of whether people would support a UN-approved American intervention; as we said several days ago, majorities in almost all European countries would. So you can't say the Europeans are anti-war at all, though it would be fair to say that the Europeans are anti-American-unilateralism.

Bush said that he was "disappointed in France" and that he "doesn't understand" the French attitude impeding NATO from helping Turkey prepare to defend itself. Rummy said that the Weasels' attitude is "an error" and that we're all ready to fight and don't need them; their opposition "will not delay" plans for an attack, and the US and other allies will give Turkey all the protection that it needs. Powell said the Weasels were ignoring their duty toward Turkey. USA Today, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and the New York Post all called the Weasels a bunch of poopheads, and I bet they all got an earful of a leak from somebody like Paul Wolfowitz; the American press is getting mad at Paris, Brussels, and Berlin. Even Mary McGrory is for a war now. This all adds up to a full-blast diplomatic offensive aimed straight at the Weasels. Let's see if it brings them into line because time is running out. It may not because it's starting to look more and more like the Russians have sold out to the French and Germans, and that's added to their bravado. Chirac said, at the unveiling of yet another official declaration, this one with the Rooskies, "Nothing today justifies a war". Here at Iberian Notes we're sticking to our prediction of war before Feb. 18, and if the French don't think it's justified, I guess that'll be just too bad.

The PP government in Madrid has announced that it's beginning a domestic public relations campaign; the message will be that they are not enthusiastic about going to war but are interested in secure and stable peace, for which the neutralization of Saddam is necessary. Zapatero, the leader of the Socialist opposition, said, "The French and German proposals are a much more solid hope for peace and to disarm Saddam Hussein than the permanent warlike interests of the Bush Administration". He is worried because "Aznar is alone in his support for those who want a warlike attack and a war", so Aznar should change his position and align Spain with France and Germany. Finally, he said that the demonstrations called for February 15 were "a ray of hope for peace" because they will support "reasonable and effective proposals, directed by the United Nations and not by an Administration, no matter how powerful it is, like Mr. Bush's." He didn't enumerate any of those reasonable and effective proposals.

One thing about Spanish politics is that it involves a lot of posturing, even more so than politics in other places. In the States, at least some of a political campaign is centered on the candidates' voting records and publicly taken positions, and at least some more of it consists of the candidates unveiling plans for what they'll do if elected. Those plans, in America, are always specific. They say, "Here's where we'll get the money and here's exactly how we plan to spend it". How many times during political campaigns have you seen stories headlined "Bush's (or Clinton's, or Gore's) numbers don't add up"? I, at least, have seen plenty. You never see those stories in Spain. Candidates normally make huge general pronouncements like "We'll create 800,000 jobs and build 150,000 housing units" without ever bothering to explain how. I think this is taken as a sign of good intentions, not as a specific promise to actually do anything, since nobody ever challenges these outlandish promises. This is why Zapatero can get away with his argumentation on the war, which is simply not realistic. He's a blowhard safely taking an easy posture, against war and for peace; he's not looking at the options that Spain actually has on the table before it. Everyone, including he himself, knows that the position he is taking is already doomed to failure. But he's posturing appropriately and that's what counts.

We suppose we'd better make clear that Zapatero's position is that of most people in Spain on this issue. Only 45% of Spaniards are in favor of the war, and that's with a UN resolution. Most of them are knee-jerk anti-American on foreign policy--well, just plain anti-American. The Aznar government is sticking its neck out on this one, taking a generally unpopular position and suffering a lot of criticism. The Spanish movie-star brigade are making lots of "No War" noises. A bunch of asshole college kids, who are as a rule intolerably snotty when they get political, booed Josep Piqué, the Catalan PP leader and cabinet minister, at the Universitat Pompeu Fabra. They shouted, "Piqué, fascist, you're the terrorist". (It rhymes in Spanish; it's a variant of an ETA slogan.) I used to teach English at the Pompeu; they're all rich kids, lazy bastards who think they don't really have to do any work and think they're superior to their teacher because he can't afford the designer clothes they wear. They're all majoring in some crap like labor relations or public relations.

(The Spanish students I liked best were the engineers and computer tech guys at the Polytechnic. They were very nice, all smart, hardworking, and clear-thinking. OK, maybe kind of geeky, but I tend to get along pretty well with geeks. For some reason. And they were studying English because they actually wanted to use the language.)