Well, the Russians are flip-flopping again on the war after a phone conference between Chirac and Putin. I vote we've made enough concessions to Russia and that they make up their minds whether they're in or they're out. As for Chirac, he's threatening to use France's veto. If he does so, he's breaking up the alliance as far as I'm concerned. Allies and friends do not have to fanatically follow every American whim. They may abstain, as Britain did in Vietnam, or even verbally oppose, as most European countries did in Nam, but they can't impede, as a French (or Russian) Security Council veto would do. That would be the action of an unfriendly state. Looks like Putin's going to get some more persuading, though, since Monday he's going to Germany and France in another round of the diplomatic whirl.

The Germans have received Donald Rumsfeld "coldly" in Munich, where Rumsfeld is now after meeting with Berlusconi in Italy, where he said, "Diplomacy has failed...Not reacting now would have much more serious and devastating consequences than doing so." This, combined with Bush's "The game is over", the mobilizing of the 101st Airborne, and the embarking of the Kitty Hawk carrier group for the Indian Ocean, make me think the war is on and that it will begin soon, within ten days, before Feb. 18. The German defense minister is mad, since Rumsfeld compared Germany with Cuba and Libya in his list of countries that reject US military action (gee, I thought a leftist would be pleased to be compared with Fidel Castro). He's promised that he'll "ask for explanations". Sounds to me like he's bragging that he's going to call Rumsfeld on the carpet. If I were him I'd watch it, because Rummy is likely to chew him up and spit him out.

Gearhead Schröder and Jockitch Fischer have played their hand and they've got a pair of deuces. Gearhead has solemnly sworn that he will not vote yes on a second Security Council resolution. This means he can either abstain, which wouldn't be a horribly unfriendly act and is probably Germany's best move now, or vote no, which would put Germany on the double-secret probation shit list and create a rift that Schröder's successor will have some trouble patching over.

Jockitch Fischer visited the Pope and his minions and they had a nice little talk about how the war is bad. The Pope, poor old man--well, he's had a long, fulfilling life in the service of humanity, and I respect him and his moral status though I disagree with him on many things. He's done a lot more to further peace in the world than anyone else who's won the Nobel Peace Prize lately--is functionally a vegetable. The people who seem to be running things in the Vatican are Cardinal Secretary of State Angelo Sodano, Foreign Minister Jean-Louis Tauran, and spokesman and press secretary Joaquín Navarro-Valls, an Italian, a Frenchman, and a Spaniard, Latin Europeans all. Is there anything more Old Europe than the Catholic Church? Latin Europeans are probably about one-sixth of Catholics worldwide, but they certainly exercise a disproportionate influence over the Church, which badly needs a strong dose of democratization.

Giscard "d'Estaing" is accusing the Gang of Eight of violating the Treaty of Maastricht by a) not abstaining from actions which contravene EU foreign policy and b) not coordinating their actions within other international organizations. So if Britain or France or Italy, or the Eastern European countries after they join the Union, want to exercise their own foreign policy without having to submit to the writ of Brussels--well, they can't, says Giscard. Hey, all you Brits out there, what do you think of this? You like the idea that the Eurocrats can tell you how to behave toward other countries or when you can use your army--would they have let you take back the Falklands if it had been their decision?--or vote however you want in the UN and in NATO? Do you want to give Brussels and Paris and Berlin a veto over what you can do? I thought we fought two world wars and the Cold War in the last century mostly because neither you nor we thought that would be a good idea, and I don't know how many times you fought to stay outside the orbit of Paris during the whole last millenium. Now if that's what you want to do, take orders from Brussels and Paris and Berlin, that's fine, it's your decision, but that's not what I would want if I were you.

It makes sense for Spain to follow EU dictates because a) they give us a lot of money and b) an active foreign policy is not one of the most productive ways Spain could spend its energies. Economic development is still so important here that it would be presuming above our station if we tried to throw our weight around. You wouldn't have seen Aznar signing up with the US-led alliance if at least Britain hadn't been with him; Spain is just not strong enough to oppose the four biggest European powers all by itself.