Saturday, February 01, 2003

It's time for today's European diplomacy update. Slovenia and Latvia have joined the countries who signed the pro-alliance letter that the Wall Street Journal commissioned, Aznar drafted, Blair rewrote, and eight other European leaders agreed to. Brussels is royally pissed off; the Eurocrats consider the letter to have been a rupture in the EU's common foreign policy, as if such a thing existed. They're whining about both the message of the letter and the way it was publicized; they're whining because they're beaten. Whipped. They've lost. They know it. They are not going to get anything resembling what they want and this is not the last tantrum they're going to throw, since emotionally Old Europe is about as mature as a toddler, thinking of nothing but itself and its own comparative prestige and unwilling to admit it didn't have much to start with and now has a lot less.

Javier Solana was made to look like a moron because the day before the Gang of Eight's letter came out he'd said that any decision on Iraq would have to be made by the UN. So what's the problem? Solana is a moron. He must be if he'd say something as obviously false as that. I've hated him ever since he did a human interest interview that I read and he started telling funny, rather sympathetic stories about Kim Jong Il. It seemed about as appropriate as, I don't know, reeling off a skein of light-hearted Hitler anecdotes. Meanwhile, I can't think of a single productive thing he's been responsible for as director of EU foreign policy.

The right-wing German press is baying for Schröder's defenestration, saying that the French are going to sign on with the alliance leaving Germany in the cold thanks to Ger-hardhead. He's trying to use the anti-American plank to pull out a decent showing for his Social Democrat party in the upcoming state elections in Hesse and Lower Saxony, but the Social Dems are going to get their asses kicked no matter what happens. Schröder's weeks as Chancellor are numbered. The French press is in a monumental snit. The Socialist organ, Libération, kicked off with the headline "Bush and his eight mercenaries". Boy, they're mad. Good. It pleases me to see frustrated left-wing Frenchmen. Libé called the eight states "vassals" and said, "The leaders in Washington dream of torpedoing the emergence of a powerful Europe that could contest its leadership." Yeah, my ass they do. Libé is so arrogant and self-absorbed that it thinks the Americans are actually worried about the EU becoming a rival.

They did a survey in the 15 EU countries; to the question, "Do you think your country should be involved in a military attack on Iraq if the UN decides in favor of one?" The percentage of respondents saying yes were: UK 79%, Denmark 71%, Holland 68%, France 67%, Italy 66%, Luxembourg 63%, Belgium 56%, Portugal 56%, Ireland 51%, Germany 45%, Spain 45%, Sweden 39%, Finland 31%, Greece 25%, Austria 19%, and the EU average was 57%. It seems to me that this is evidence of solid support for an Alliance attack on the part of the peoples of both new Europe and Old Europe: 67% of the people in France answered responsibly, for example. It sounds to me like the French government is out of sync with its voters, but then we knew that anyway, since fewer than 20% of them voted for the current president in the first round of the most recent elections, nearly the same percentage voted for racist reactionary Jean-Marie Le Pen, and about the same percentage voted for a melange of assorted Commies and Trots.

Here in Spain the Socialists are completely lost; they're in well over their heads and have no idea what to do. Socialist leader Zapatero is not taking a clear position; what it sounds like is that he's against the Iraq war unless France decides for it, which they will do after Feb. 5's Security Council Showdown. Mariano Rajoy, a PP heavy hitter, blasted the Socialists for their 1986 campaign against joining NATO and then their about-face and their support for joining up, for forgetting that the Socialist government under Felipe González had participated in Gulf War I, for not listening to Felipe when he said that it's not a good plan to get into a position where you'll have to change sides halfway through, and for not defending Spain's interests through an active consensus foreign policy. He didn't have to mention that the Socialists were responsible for the organization of an anti-ETA death squad under Felipe and that they therefore should perhaps abstain from making moral judgments about others who feel the need to defend themselves in an open, aboveboard way.

The Catalan nationalist party, Convergence and Union, has also come out against the war. Loudmouth Convergence deputy Ignasi Guardans, who is a self-satisfied little prick, accused Foreign Minister Ana Palacio of lying on the floor of Parliament and refused to retract his statement; he later told Miss Palacio, who is pro-alliance, that "You don't support the United States, you support their most reactionary right wing," after blaming the United States for the existence of the Franco dictatorship. This is the sort of behavior that one would expect from the Communists or the Basque wackos but not from a respectable, moderate political party. Convergence party boss Jordi Pujol, who is an old fox and should never be underestimated, needs to call Mr. Guardans on the carpet and remind him that bugs don't fly into closed mouths. Meanwhile, Convergence spokesman Felip Puig compared Aznar to Le Pen. People who say ridiculous things like that often regret it later. I suspect that Mr. Aznar will personally assure Mr. Puig's regrettance at some future date.

Spain is preparing for war. A hospital is being set up at the Rota naval base for wounded alliance soldiers. Rota is also preparing to handle a large number of Allied soldiers as an intermediate transit point. The Spanish fleet will patrol in the Med, the Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean as part of an Allied fleet, and Spanish AWACS planes will be used. There will also be Spanish participation in the post-war peacekeeping force.

No comments: