Everybody in town seems to be talking about only three things, and that's pretty much what you see on the TV news too: Iraq, the Barça, and the "parking garage" murders.

The Vanguardia's lead story is on Bush's State of the Union speech; they call it "one of the most transcendental speeches of his term." Bush accused Saddam of lying and specifically said that Saddam holds 25,000 liters of anthrax, 38,000 liters of botulism toxin, 500 tons of sarin gas, mustard gas, and VX nerve gas, and 30,000 warheads capable of carrying chemical weapons. That sounds to me like a solid, direct, specific accusation of a "smoking gun" that Bush will now have to back up. Bush also said that there is evidence linking Iraq and terrorist groups, including Al Qaeda, obtained through espionage, secret information, and the statements of arrested prisoners. Colin Powell will present this evidence, which includes photographs, to the UN Security Council on February 5. The Vangua has reported that the British will have a draft resolution ready by then.

The Vangua pays comparatively little attention to the rest of the content of Bush's speech, though they do resume the key points: a $674 billion tax cut over ten years (good move, George!), the necessity to extend health care protection to more of the uninsured (Important problem! Let's hear some specifics. This is a public quality-of-life issue, and it's perfectly justifiable to spend tax money for everybody's benefit to control contagious diseases like TB and AIDS and hepatitis C--they said on today's news that one million Spaniards may have hep C and most don't know it--and to improve the general level of health of the population. How about my plan for a National Preventative Health?), and federal subsidies for religious groups that rehabilitate drug addicts and alcoholics (Bad move, George! The government shouldn't subsidize any religious institution except for, of course, giving it a tax exemption as a charity. Exception: education vouchers "spent" at religious schools. You could argue that the subsidy is not being given to the school, but to the parent, who has the option of choosing one of a number of schools, some public, some private, and some religious.

Back to Iraq. The Vangua has a good report on the diplomatic maneuvering going on right now in Europe. It looks like Blair, Aznar, and Berlusconi, the Gang of Three, the Triple Alliance, the Troika, the Third Triumvirate, are on board with Bush despite a few quibbles. Australia, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary are also listed as being on board. In addition, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are behind the US. Anyway, Berlusconi is meeting with Blair today and will meet with Bush tomorrow, after which he will go to Russia and get Putin on board; Putin will need to have his palm greased but will almost certainly go along. Berlusconi and Putin are known for being simpáticos. They're both crooks, so that might have something to do with it. Tomorrow Aznar is meeting with Blair in Madrid. Bush and Blair are meeting at Camp David on Friday, and Blair is then going to France where he will meet with Chirac on Monday and get him on board. Bush, meanwhile will meet with Leszek Miller, prime minister of Poland (remember that name, you'll be seeing it a lot in the weeks to come) on Monday. Miller is already on board so this is probably a pep talk.

All of this makes me think that there will be a showdown in the UN Security Council on February 5 and that the British will propose a second resolution authorizing the use of armed force against Iraq. The US, UK, Spain, France, and Russia will vote yes. China and Germany will abstain. The resolution will pass and the war will begin very soon, within a few days. It will end very soon with a complete collapse of the Iraqi regime. Fewer than 1000 Iraqi civilians will be killed in the fighting, but there will be some gruesome scenes when rough justice is meted out by the people against Saddam's thugs. Very unpleasant stories will come out and many former anti-war people will be convinced of the war's justice after all of Saddam's atrocities are revealed. We then will have to occupy Iraq for at least five years. Since they can produce three million barrels of oil a day, the income from that ought to be more than sufficient to rebuild the country.

Spain has announced that it will not send troops, but will authorize United States use of its bases here. Spain will take charge of logistics in the Mediterranean, and will prepare to back up the Turks if that should be needed. It will provide hospitals and, after the war, a specially trained Guardia Civil unit with experience in Kosovo will form part of the occupation and peacekeeping force in Iraq. That sounds like cooperation pretty much to the limit of Spain's abilities. They really haven't got much of a military.

The Socialists have been challenging Aznar to go to the Congress of Deputies (Parliament) and state his case on the Iraq war. He will do so on February 5, the same day that Powell goes to the UN. Gee, you think Aznar might know something about what Saddam's got up his sleeve that they're not telling us yet? The Socialists are puffing out their chests and bragging that Aznar is only going to speak to the Parliament because they pressured him into it. The Socialists these days are really a bunch of jerks. Felipe González is not my idol, but he did preside over Spain's climb to real First World status during his administration between 1982 and 1996. The guys they've got now, though, are small-minded and petty; they have no plans or ideas except that of opposing Aznar and his governing PP, and so they whine, whimper, and complain every time Aznar announces he's thinking of getting someone to mow the lawn at the Moncloa.

Also, the Americans shot a bunch of Talibans in Afghanistan, eighteen says the Vanguardia, and captured another dozen. These guys were hiding out in the mountains near Pakistan, from where what's left of the Taliban are obviously being supplied. This is the biggest anti-Taliban operation since last March's Anaconda. Anaconda was, of course, much bigger.