Sunday, March 09, 2008

It's Election Day! This is going to be a close one. I'll be following the news all day, and if anything happens I'll post it. They'll announce the results at 9 PM.

El Periódico's last survey, released at midnight, shows a small swing to the PSOE, who would beat the PP 43.4% to 38.1%, with 18.1% for other parties. In seats in Congress, the PSOE is ahead 166-170 to 151-155 for the PP; other parties would get 30-34 seats, with 176 needed for an absolute majority.

The press seems to think that the key will be voter turnout; La Vanguardia calculates that turnout above 72% favors the Socialists, and below that figure favors the PP. The reasoning is that PP voters are more loyal and more likely to come out than PSOE voters.

Regionally, the PP is likely to win Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria, La Rioja, Navarra, Castile-Leon, Madrid, Castile-La Mancha, Madrid, Valencia, Murcia, the Balearics, the Canaries, and Ceuta and Melilla; its biggest vote sources are Madrid and Valencia. The PSOE is favored in Aragon, Catalonia, Extremadura, and Andalusia, with its heartlands in Catalonia and Andalusia. The PNV will probably win in the Basque Country.

Another key to the election: Andalusia is also holding the election for its regional parliament today, which will bring out more voters there than in other regions. This obviously favors the PSOE, since they dominate Andalusia politically.

PSOE and PP representatives got in a very inappropriate argument at the funeral for Isaías Carrasco in Mondragón; regional Socialist leader Patxi López verbally attacked both Mariano Rajoy and PP Basque leader María San Gil.

Meanwhile, the car in which the terrorists escaped the crime scene has not been found. Police suspect the killers are hiding at a safe house in or near Mondragón.

The Times has a long article on the election. Check it out. The Guardian and the AP have articles as well.

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