The polls in peninsular Spain close at 8 PM (in the Canary Islands at 9 our time), and TV3's exit poll for all of Spain says it looks like a big win for Zapatero. They have the PSOE with 45.0% to 38.6% for the PP. The PSOE would win 172-176 seats, and the PP 148-152. The smaller parties are getting whacked. The Communists drop to only 2-3 seats, and Esquerra wins 4. CiU holds out with 9-11 seats and the PNV gets 6-7. Other parties winning seats: The BNG, CC, Rosa Diez's UPD, and Nafarroa Bai.

We'll see if these results change over the evening; they're likely to. Right now, though, TV3's figures point at a Zapatero able to govern from the minority without needing to form a coalition.