Thoughts off the top of my head:

1) Zap's not going to get an absolute majority, but he's going to be able to govern with the aid of CiU.
2) Whether the PSOE can cut a deal with the PNV is questionable, since the prosecutor's office is trying to put the PNV's leader in jail, and they might not be feeling too friendly.
3) Can Rajoy claim victory if the PP wins more seats than they got in 2004--that is, more than 148? I say no.
3a) Because I think the PP leadership has botched both the message and the way it was communicated over the last four years.
3b) And because I think Zap was a weak candidate who could have been beaten by a competent opposition.