Tuesday, March 09, 2004

Murph reminded me that I had promised to go through my predictions for 2003, made at the end of 2002 in response to a survey by John Hawkins from Right Wing News. I was too lazy to do it so he went and did it for me and scored the exam, too. I think he was pretty rough scoring number 1 wrong, but he's the independent proctor so it's up to him. Also, the prediction for the Democrats was a joke, but I certainly had no idea of what the real answer would be. Actually, I think I did pretty well.

1. War in Iraq before March 2003? Yes. WRONG
2. Saddam still in power Jan. 1, 2004? No. CORRECT
3. Terrorist attack in the US killing more than 100 people? No. CORRECT
4. Casualties on our side in Iraq war? Maximum a few hundred, maybe zero from enemy fire. CORRECT
5. Syria still support Hezbollah? Really don't know. Doubt it. UNKNOWN
6. Large battle in Afghanistan? No. CORRECT
7. Independent Palestinian state? No. CORRECT
8. Revolution in Iran? No. CORRECT
9. US-North Korea sign deal to put end to NK nuke program? No because NK state will collapse, Bush wouldn't bargain with them anyway since they can't be trusted. WRONG
10. Yasser still in power? Yes, of the PLO, not as leader of a real state. CORRECT
11. Anthrax case solved? Domestic or foreign terrorism? Unsolved, "lone nut" rather than conspiracy. CORRECT
12. Osama? Already dead. UNKNOWN
13. Dem pres candidate 2004? Nader-Barbara Mikulski 3% of vote. Independents McCain-Lieberman 41%, Bush-Rice 56%. WRONG
14. Bush end year above 60% in popularity? Yes. WRONG
15. Dow Jones above 10,500? No, with at least two more years of a slow economy, rather early 90s-ish; then another long growth period. Just guessing. CORRECT
16. Human baby cloned? It's possible now. Won't be done, though, till the Chinese get hold of the technology in ten-twenty years. UNKNOWN



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